Month: August 2012

The technology revolution has just begun – part 1

It is hard for my brain to stretch that far, but when I try really hard, I can grasp that the astounding technology change we’ve seen in the last 30 years is no more than the opening chapter for the future.

My latest brain stretch is courtesy of The Next Great Growth Cycle, by Mark Mills.

He describes the astounding technology growth from 1950 through 1980 that left people wondering what could possibly come next.

Sitting in 1980…

Continue reading “The technology revolution has just begun – part 1”

“I, Smartphone” – it takes millions of people and thousands of inventions to make a smart phone

Millions of people work together to build that smartphone you are using. No one person has the know-how to build it. Thousands of inventions were needed before making the first one.

“I, Smartphone”, from the Institute for Faith, Work & Economics, is a superb visual explaining the long supply chain and incredible range of skills needed to get that phone into your hands.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Ze_wpS_o0&feature=player_embedded#t=17s]

The link if needed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Ze_wpS_o0&feature=player_embedded#t=17s

This is an update of the classic “I, Pencil”, which I mentioned here.

No one person has the skills

Continue reading ““I, Smartphone” – it takes millions of people and thousands of inventions to make a smart phone”

Another forecast – Bakken and Eagle Ford fields each to hit 1.3M bopd by 2020

Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm, has a prediction for tight oil production in the U.S.

They are predicting 1.3 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in each of the fields by the end of the decade. That would be about doubling production from current levels.

Reading the full article requires a subscription to Petroleum Economist.

They also predict that Bakken production will hit 750K bopd by the end of 2012.

With June production at 660k bopd and increases of around 20k or 30k bopd each month, I don’t think it will take until the end of the year to hit 750k.

(h/t: BakkenBlog News twitter feed)

“I, Pencil”, or, how many millions of people does it take to make one pencil?

No one person on the planet has all the knowledge or skills necessary to make one pencil. It takes multiple millions of people contributing their specialized skills just to make one.

That story is told in “I, Pencil: My Family Tree as told to Leonard E. Read”, which you can find here.

I’ve long been aware of that article, but am embarrassed to admit I’ve never read it before today.

It is brilliant.

Here’s the core idea:

Continue reading ““I, Pencil”, or, how many millions of people does it take to make one pencil?”

What changes can we see through the lives of entering college students?

Every August, Beloit College releases their Beloit College Mindset List. It is a fun list of things that have changed since the entering students were born. It’s always helpful for some perspective.

Here are a few items that caught my interest in terms of technology change:

2. They have always lived in cyberspace, addicted to a new generation of “electronic narcotics.”

9 They have never seen an airplane “ticket.”

Continue reading “What changes can we see through the lives of entering college students?”

At the end of July, Bakken and Eagle Ford had 478 rigs combined. What would you say about a field that has 500 rigs working?

I’d say that’s great! Cool!

Where would that be?, I hear you ask. Try the Permian Basin. You know, that ancient field that is in perpetual decline, which just ‘proves’ the peak oil idea that there’s no more oil to be found.

Eric Fox at Motley Fool describes The Resurrection of the Permian Basin. He says the rig count in second quarter of ’12 passed the 500 mark. That is more rigs that are working in Bakken and Eagle Ford combined.

Production growth

This estimate is for production in the field to increase about 330,000 bopd in the next 4 years: Continue reading “At the end of July, Bakken and Eagle Ford had 478 rigs combined. What would you say about a field that has 500 rigs working?”

Huge subsidies for renewable electricity produces minor results

The Wall Street Journal highlights data showing the solar industry gets subsidies for electricity at 1,000 times the rate going to oil and gas. In return, the industry provides negligible output of electricity.

The oil & gas industry gets subsidies of $654M for providing 25% of the electricity we use. Solar get $968M, almost a billion bucks, in return for providing 0% of our electricity.

Yes, 0%. Rounded to the nearest percent, the output is zero.  Let’s move the decimal place out and try again.

Continue reading “Huge subsidies for renewable electricity produces minor results”

Hotel construction in Bakken

Bruce Oksol gives the count of hotels built and under construction in his post, Bakken at Random Note on Hotel/Motel Construction in the Oil Patch.

You need to read the article for yourself. Short summary – almost twice as many hotels coming on line this year than all of last year. More than that under construction or announced. Huge growth curve.

Amazing.

Guess for Eagle Ford production

I’ll start noting forecasts for Eagle Ford production when I see them.

RBN Energy has a report on the infrastructure that moves condensate from the wells to the refineries in their post – Knocking on Heaven’s Dorr – The Eagle Ford Crude Story Part III.

The lengthy post starts with this comment:

Continue reading “Guess for Eagle Ford production”

North Dakota oil production passes 660,000 level in June 2012

Average daily oil production in North Dakota for June 2012 hit 660,322 bopd, which is an increase of 20,341 over May.  The May increase was 30,469 barrels per day, or 5.0%.

Something I noticed this month is that the monthly data is revised just a bit in following months. That means if you keep your own set of stats for number crunching, like I do, you need check to see if the data was revised.

Number of wells increased to 7,130.

Here is a graph of monthly production: Continue reading “North Dakota oil production passes 660,000 level in June 2012”

2 more illustrations of fracking – both educational but for different reasons

Marathon Oil has a great visual showing horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. In contrast, I also found a joke of an illustration.

Here’s the good stuff:

 [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=VY34PQUiwOQ#t=256s]

Here is the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=VY34PQUiwOQ#t=256s

This video includes above ground pictures to help tell the story. Also describes recovery steps when the well is taken out of production. It has more background than just the drilling, well lining, and fracking.

From the description for the video:

Safe, cost-effective refinements in hydraulic fracturing (also known as fracking), horizontal drilling and other innovations now allow for the production of oil and natural gas from tight shale formations that previously were inaccessible. This animated video introduces you to the proven techniques used to extract resources from these shale formations in a safe, environmentally responsible manner.

And now for a contrast….

Continue reading “2 more illustrations of fracking – both educational but for different reasons”

If ExxonMobil is making obscene amounts of profits, then I guess they are paying outlandish, outrageous, preposterous amounts of taxes

ExxonMobil pays about three times as much in taxes as it has in net income. So take whatever disparaging description you want to use for their profits and repeat that three times to describe their tax load.

Here is their total tax expense, from table 18 of their 2011 audited financial statements.  All amounts in millions of US dollars: Continue reading “If ExxonMobil is making obscene amounts of profits, then I guess they are paying outlandish, outrageous, preposterous amounts of taxes”

2 more primers on fracking. Some good background on fracking from them.

Here’s another superb primer on hydraulic fracturing:  Big Screen Energy:  A Fracking Film Festival.

The graphics are great. In particular, there are three superb illustrations of the depths involved in drilling and the multiple layers of protective steel and cement. Check out the thousands of feet of rock between the water table and the horizontal run.

The brochure is from the EnergyFromShale.org website. I browsed the site and found this great video of the drilling and fracking process:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YemKzEPugpk&feature=player_embedded]

Here’s the link:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YemKzEPugpk&feature=player_embedded

Here are a few of the tidbits I learned from the brochure:

How much steel and cement is used in each well?

Continue reading “2 more primers on fracking. Some good background on fracking from them.”

16 years to fully develop Bakken

Fully developing the oil field in North Dakota may take another 16 to 18 years. That is the comment from Lynn Helms in an interview on “Platts Energy Week”.

North Dakota’s oil/gas boom to get even bigger, official says is the article that discusses the interview.

Other interesting comments-

Continue reading “16 years to fully develop Bakken”