Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

07 May 2013

Texas wants oil riches, California doesn’t. We’d rather skip the jobs & taxes and slaughter golden eagles to get our clean energy.

You don’t have to realize any benefit from humongous amounts of oil in the ground.

California isn’t. California doesn’t want to.

A great Wall Street Journal editorial summarizes Texas wanting oil and getting much wealth while California doesn’t want either:  A Tale of Two Oil States.

The editorial says Texas pumps more oil than the next four largest states combined and could double their production by 2016 and triple in another decade.  Production in California is declining.

The editorial points out there about 400K oil jobs in Texas but only around one-tenth that, or 40K, in California.

Warning: sarcasm alert. I try to avoid destructive humor. When I look at foolishness about energy, ridicule obviously becomes a great tool to point out the foolishness.

There is a lot of oil here: Read more…

Posted in Energy | Leave a Comment
06 May 2013

More explanation why drilling costs are going down in Bakken

There are a lot of factors explaining why drilling costs are higher in Bakken than elsewhere. Multiple factors explain why costs are dropping.

Seeking Alpha, by Michael Filloon, explains in Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate.

Just a few reasons costs are higher: The formations are deeper, infrastructure hasn’t had decades to develop so isn’t as strong as elsewhere, the extreme cold weather makes drilling more difficult, the spring thaw makes truck deliveries slower because of lighter loads.

A number of factors beyond pad drilling and growing efficiency are at play to reduce costs. The article’s conclusion: Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged | Leave a Comment
05 May 2013

Dropping production costs in Eagle Ford mentioned in 2013 Eagle Ford Impact Report

I mentioned the dropping costs of production in Eagle Ford in this post.

Here’s the graph in the presentation slide deck for the 2013 report from the University of Texas San Antonio:

Eagle Ford production costs

Thanks to R.T. Dukes of EagleFordShale.com for permission to repost his graph. Thanks to Professor Thomas Tunstall for a copy of the slide presentation.

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged | Leave a Comment
04 May 2013

Why the difference between the excitement and opportunities in technology news and the horrible, terrible, depressing everything-falling-apart news in the political realm?

(Cross-post from my other blog, Freedom Is Moral.)

I challenge you to this experiment:

Spend a few days reading nothing but technology news. Then spend a few days reading nothing but political news. For the first few days [you will] see an exciting world of innovation and creativity where everything is getting better all the time. In the second period [you will] see a miserable world of cynicism and treachery where everything is falling apart.

Why is there such a gulf between those two worlds?

Quote from here.

Posted in Other stuff | Leave a Comment
04 May 2013

California may ban drilling technique that has been used for only 60 years

“I can’t make this stuff up” should be trademarked by Million Dollar Way.

Bills are moving through the California legislature to halt fracking in the state until it is studied to the legislator’s satisfaction. Reported by the AP in Lawmakers advance bill to halt oil fracking.

Fracking has been used in California for 60 years. Six decades.

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged | Leave a Comment
02 May 2013

“The world is moved along, not only by the mighty shoves of its heroes, but also by the aggregate of the tiny pushes of each honest worker.”

The quote is from Helen Keller and Philosoblog discusses it in a post of the same name.

Deep down we all want our life work to make a big impact on the world. Those of us working or volunteering or donating in the nonprofit community want to change the world.

Read more…

Posted in Pondering | Leave a Comment
02 May 2013

State governments starting to change part-time rules

Reports are surfacing that businesses and colleges are planning to reduce hours for part-time staff.

Now news is appearing that state governments are working the same plan.

Why? Read more…

Posted in Change around us and tagged , | Leave a Comment
01 May 2013

Plummeting price of memory

Check out this superb graph from Wired Magazine reposted by Carpe Diem – Chart of the day: The falling price of memory.

Fantastic illustration of how drastically storage prices have dropped in last 20 years.

Let’s look at the technology I’ve used to pass info back and forth to clients while at their office.

Read more…

Posted in Change in the past, Technology and tagged | Leave a Comment
01 May 2013
3 Comments

Another Bakken’s worth of oil discovered. And it’s underneath the current Bakken. Oh, and what Peak Oil?

The USGS updated their estimate of the amount of oil that is undiscovered, technically recoverable in the Bakken field. Second paragraph of their press release says:

The USGS assessment found that the Bakken Formation has an estimated mean oil resource of 3.65 BBO and the Three Forks Formation has an estimated mean resource of 3.73 BBO, for a total of 7.38 BBO, with a range of 4.42 (95 percent chance) to 11.43 BBO (5 percent chance). This assessment of both formations represents a significant increase over the estimated mean resource of 3.65 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Bakken Formation that was estimated in the 2008 assessment.

This means the mid-point (statistically correct phrase: mean) of the total oil that is technically recoverable with current technology is 7.4 billion barrels of oil. Their assessment is that the probability is 95% that there will be at least 4.4B and the probability is 5% that there could be as much as 11.4B.

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , , ,
30 Apr 2013

“Bakken Assembly Line” – drilling will continue for 3 more years at the current pace

Bruce Oksol provides a voice of calm in response to an alarmist editorial in the Bismarck Tribune. The editorial mentions that the state government expects 6,000 wells to come on-line in the next three years. That will lead to huge increases in drilling, truck traffic, and overall activity. At least according to the paper: Prepare for a “big surge” in Bakken.

Actually, that would be a continuation of the pace of drilling that is going on now. Today. More Details on the Coming Surge in The Bakken: 6,000 Additional Bakken Wells Over The Next Three Years reminds us that the current production rate is already 2,000 new wells a year.

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , | Leave a Comment
30 Apr 2013

Successful test of rocket hovering and making soft landing

SpaceX had a successful test of their Grasshopper rocket.

News 92 FM in Houston reports – SpaceX Rocket Launches, Hovers, and Lands:

The ten-story tall vertical takeoff, vertical landing vehicle slowly lifts off the ground and climbs to a height of around 850 feet, then hovers effortlessly in the air before slowly lowering back down to the launch pad, successfully nailing one of the softest landings you’ll ever see.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NoxiK7K28PU

I’m no rocket scientist, sitting here in my comfy armchair, but seems like a soft landing from an 850’ hover proves a critical skill for space travel to, say, asteroids or Mars. The jaw-dropping news here is this effort was privately designed, built, funded, and operated. Very cool.

Faster please, as Glenn Reynolds says.

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30 Apr 2013

Rough picture of how far the tech revolution has to go

John Bredehoft expanded my discussion on the tech revolution just getting started.

In his post, Why are some revolutions imperceptible?, he describes the revolution in his industry from getting powerful PCs. The impact on the economy was tiny, if even measurable, because the entire industry was small in relation to the overall US economy.

To point out how small the publishing and music industries are, he looked at the Fortune 500 list of largest companies in terms of sales. He points out that the largest identifiable media companies are News Corp at 91 and Time Warner at 103.

Since I’m an accountant and like to quantify things, his post gave me an interesting idea. I went to the list and did a quick analysis to compare the size of a few industries.

Read more…

Posted in Change around us, Technology and tagged | Leave a Comment
29 Apr 2013
3 Comments

Impact of the technology revolution has barely begun

That we haven’t seen the full impact of IT is a comment I heard the first time a few years ago. That sort of made sense but didn’t really register. This blog is focused on sorting out that change. The idea that the technology revolution has barely begun finally clicked for me with a column by Matthew Yglesias – Why I’m Optimistic About Growth and Innovation.

A few industries have seen huge impact from technology. Think of book publishing, journalism, and music. Those industries have been turned upside down. I read a lot and listen to a bit of music so am quite attuned to those areas. The way everyone consumes news has been transformed. I regularly read dozens of blogs a day. They just appear on my computer screen with a mouse click or two. I’ve always been a news junkie, and my consumption has soared in the last few years.

However, as big as those industries are, they are a small part of the total economy.

Read more…

Posted in Change around us, Change down the road, Pondering, Technology and tagged ,
28 Apr 2013

Mali update 4-28-13

Things have apparently settled down a bit in Mali, but at a transition point the danger is high.

4-23-12 - AP- The Big Story – Limping al-Qaida offshoot rearms with Twitter

Read more…

Posted in Other stuff and tagged | Leave a Comment
28 Apr 2013
1 Comment

Technology revolution becoming visible in health care

The music and publishing industries have been transformed by the technology revolution. Some signs are appearing that technology might remake health care.

The Wall Street Journal article, Midlevel Health Jobs Shrink, reports that several trends are reducing opportunities for people in health care with midlevel skill sets.

Here’s a great summary in the article:

Automation, outsourcing and other forces have eliminated many formerly secure jobs in manufacturing, clerical work and other fields. Now health care is following the same path with unforeseen speed.

Read more…

Posted in Change around us, Technology and tagged ,

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