Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

A few more tidbits on rising oil production in North Dakota – 5/15

Each month after the statistics are released for North Dakota oil production, I run a few graphs showing the story of what is going on there.

Here are a few more for May 2015.

Average number of producing wells by year. This is the number of producing wells in the statistics, here and here, with my calculation of the average of the monthly amounts. You can see a breakout in 2010 and 2011. The huge increases are in ’12, 13, and ’14. Even with the slump in prices, which led to a drastic drop in the number of drilling rigs, the average number rigs in ’15 has increased more than any year prior to ’12. Read more…

North Dakota oil production hits second highest level ever in May 2015

Production state-wide rose 2.75% to average of 1,201,159 barrels per day. That is the second highest ever, only behind December 2014 which was 1,227,529 bopd. Keep in mind this is with a slump in drilling.  I’m guessing that flat production is not what the OPEC ministers were expecting when opened the spigots of their production.

Here is what the average production looks like in Bakken field only and state-wide: Read more…

Resale price of a wind farm, almost new, barely any miles, just off the dealer’s lot

Per megawatt:

  • $2.5M – construction cost
  • $0.5M – resale price

As I notice articles describing the construction cost to build wind and solar facilities, I’m accumulating the information. A while back there was a discussion on the resale price. Compared to slice-and-dicers, a brand new car holds its value incredibly well.

Depreciation from driving a car off the dealer’s lot is nothin’ compared to a wind turbine.

4/17 – Million Dollar Way- Let’s Do The Math — April 17, 2015; Original Price: $2.6 Million / MW — Sold For $500K / MW Read more…

Thoughts about the Director’s Cut from The Overnighters documentary – part 6

This is the sixth and next to last post on my thoughts after viewing the director’s cut. Just a few more ideas before concluding with my reaction to a question asked by a person at the screening I attended.

Role of the newspaper

I think I’ll hold off for another day the role played by a reporter brought into town and the editor of the city paper.

One idea is the appropriate boundary between reporting a story of public interest on one hand and becoming part of the story or creating fear on the other hand.

Read more…

Amazon increases staffing in Southern California

Check out these two articles about Amazon expanding its presence in SoCal as an indicator off what is happening in the on-line sales industry.

6/2 – Daily Bulletin – Amazon hiring for 1,000 full-time positions in Inland Empire Amazon is adding 1000 new employees, all full-time, to its three fulfillment centers in the inland Empire. I only knew about the one in San Bernardino. There are two more, in Moreno Valley and Redlands.

Read more…

Thoughts about the Director’s Cut from The Overnighters documentary – part 5

One final lesson that those of us in leadership at local churches or parachurch ministries can learn from the documentary The Overnighters. Previous lessons learned are visible here and here.

Hurting people hurt people. Alan and Paul turned on the pastor. They were quite angry with him and their outbursts were caught on camera. Comments in the director’s cut help me understand that they struck out in anger because of the hurts in their lives. Read more…

Under new pricing structure, electricity costs will increase for most Californians. Or stay the same. Or maybe increase for efficient homes.

The California Public Utilities Commission approved a plan to dramatically change the pricing of electricity for residential users in the state.

Since we’re talking regulators who like regulation and complexity you have to be an accountant, engineer, or economist in order to understand this jumble. I think I get the basic picture.

Currently there are four different pricing ‘tiers’ based on how much electricity you use. The price for each level of usage is different. For example, our statements last summer gave an interpretive chart listing the various prices as motivator to conserve electricity: Read more…

Thoughts about the Director’s Cut from The Overnighters documentary – part 4

Two more lessons learned that leaders in churches and ministries can pick up from The Overnighters documentary. The first three lessons are here.

In this post:

  • Your sin will find you out.
  • People lie.

Read more…

Two more data points on cost to build renewable energy sources

I’m accumulating data points on the construction cost to build energy facilities. Two articles give info on three projects:

  • $2.5M / mW – solar
  • $1.6M / mW – wind
  • $1.6M / mW – wind

Read more…

I celebrate this Independence Day by using my freedom of speech and freedom of religion

Thought about putting on my blogs some cool patriotic visuals to celebrate the 239th anniversary of the greatest country in the world that has provided more political, economic, and religious freedom to more people than any country anywhere anytime. There are lots of nice looking things available on the ‘net.

Also thought about pulling up some photos of flags I’ve taken over the years and creating a visual celebration.

I decided to do something completely different.

Of the large number of freedoms that we humans have because we exist, which are also recognized by the Declaration of Independence and Constitution, I particularly cherish freedom of speech and freedom of religion.

So yesterday (which was the federal holiday), today (the actual anniversary), and tomorrow I exercise those freedoms.

Freedom of speech

Read more…

Extremely costly offshore wind farm will start producing expensive electricity late in 2016

The Wall Street Journal reports First Offshore Wind Farm in U.S. Powers Ahead – The first offshore wind turbines in the US will start construction soon and is expected to produce electricity late next year. Located a few miles off Block Island, Rhode Island, the turbines will replace diesel as source of electricity for the 1,000 residents.

The electricity has been purchased under a contract with National Grid with starting prices above market and rates to increase 3.5% each year for the 20 year life of the contract. Cost for the residents of the island will go down because this is replacing expensive diesel that is shipped to the island.

After some background, let’s look at the construction costs per megawatt of theoretical capacity.

Read more…

Thoughts about the Director’s Cut from The Overnighters documentary – part 3

This post continues my reflections on a documentary describing the overnighters program at a church in Williston, which provided housing to people looking for work when sufficient housing was not available in the area. First of three discussions on lessons learned from my perspective as one of the leaders in my congregation.

Lessons learned

From the perspective of leadership training in the local church, there are many lessons to be learned from the documentary. Here are six for your consideration:

  • Beware the Lone Ranger mentality.
  • Don’t keep secrets.
  • Set proper boundaries.
  • Your sin will find you out.
  • People lie.
  • Hurting people hurt people.

The first three:

Beware the Lone Ranger mentality. While I loved that TV series as a kid, that show contains a poor model for adults. Ministry in both a local church and a parachurch organization requires teamwork. Read more…

We can change alleged to confessed when talking about the corrupt DEA investigator of Silk Road

This post continues the coverage of worlds far away I’ll never visit.

It is also in the you can’t make this stuff up category.

I previously discussed a federal DEA agent investigating Silk Road who allegedly got $100K from Dread Pirate Roberts for information about the investigation the agent was conducting and allegedly stole $297K from a customer of a bitcoin dealer. He allegedly invested in and was allegedly working for that company as their compliance officer.

Well, we can now drop the alleged and change it to confessed.

Oh, he had a movie deal too.

I will describe a few tidbits from news reports and then go deeper into the plea agreement.

Read more…

Where are they now? Followup on people you saw in The Overnighters documentary.

The PBS pages set up to talk about The Overnighters documentary have a lot of information. PBS aired the documentary on June 29.

There is a 19 minute interview with Jesse Moss. Most of the comments there will be familiar to anyone who’s read lots of posts on my blog or watched the documentary. If you weren’t aware of what is happening in the North Dakota oil fields before watching the documentary, that interview would be a great way to get up to speed.

Here is some update on the characters and then general goal of the documentary.

Background and follow-up of the main subjects of the documentary

The “About the Characters” page gives some background of many of the people the documentary focuses upon.

The “Film Update” page follows up on several of the people.

Read more…

The Overnighters documentary streaming free on PBS

The documentary was shown on PBS June 29. It is available for live streaming at the PBS website here. Will be available free until July 15, 2015.

You can find the trailer for the PBS showing at the following link:



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