Another short term production prediction for Bakken

I know my ability to predict oil production in North Dakota is lousy.

Let’s see how Bentek is doing:

9/23 – BakkenShale.com – Bentek Energy: ND Bakken Hit 1.2 Million b/d – Aug. 2014 – Article says Bentek is predicting production in North Dakota from just Bakken field shale will hit 1.2M bopd in August.

This is the second month in a row they predicted 1.2M bopd.

Here is what I posted previously on 9/10:

Here is an early estimate for the July numbers. On 8/25, Bentek Energy issued a press release: Production from Bakken, Eagle Ford Rose 3.4% in July. Their prediction is

• “Crude oil production in the North Dakota section of the Bakken shale formation of the Williston Basin averaged nearly 1.2 million b/d in July, according to Bentek.”

For Texas, their prediction is:

• “Oil production from the Eagle Ford formation averaged 1.5 million b/d last month, up 411,000 b/d from July 2013.”

On a typical basis, the July results would be released by the ND regulators on about September 15. Bentek released their estimate on August 25.

Actual production for the state in July was 1.11M bopd and from the Bakken formation it was 1.047M bopd. Those are substantially different from 1.2M.

To hit 1.2M bopd for the state in August would be an 8.04% increase for the month. Increase to that level for Bakken only would be a 14.6% increase. In one month.

Second month in a row of predicting 1.2M from Bentek.

We will see.

What do you think? Am I missing something?