Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Archive for the tag “Eagle Ford”

Is the oil market ready to turn?

There is room for a few more wells on that site when the price is right. Photo by James Ulvog.

There is room for a few more wells on that site when the price is right, which may be soon. Photo by James Ulvog.

Daniel Yergin thinks so.

Bargain hunters who are hunting bargains think so.

Increase to $50 has some producers completing DUCs, which tells us those producers think so.

Oh, USGS estimates a field in Colorado has 40 times more natural gas that previously estimated. The field is almost as large as Marcellus.

6/5  Calgary Herald – Oil recovery is on its way after two-year-long rout, says energy economist – As one of many comments at a conference in Calgary, Daniel Yergin said he thinks the oil industry at the start of a recovery.

Read more…

Best 2014 energy graphs from Carpe Diem

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(Photo by James Ulvog)

Carpe Diem has been running a recap of the best-of graphs from 2014. Last week the focus was energy:  My Top Ten Energy Charts of the Year For 2014.

Here are some of my favorites.  All graphs used with permission of Carpe Diem.

If you have just tuned into the energy revolution, look at these graphs to see how much things have changed in the last decade.

Check out the total U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas. That is a great proxy for the shale revolution.

energy gas and crude

Look at the crude oil only production graph. Read more…

About those dropping oil prices – 6

Have a lot of articles to discuss about what’s going on in the energy area. Lots of turmoil and uncertainty at the moment. Here are a few articles, to help get caught up:

12/6 – Economist – Sheikh v Shale – Love the cover illustration! I’ll be rooting for the shale guy in the showdown.

Article gives credit to shale oil for the drop in gas prices and oil prices. Take a bow, all you frackers in Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian! A $40 drop in price moves $1.3 trillion a year from producers to consumers. That is a savings of around $800 a year for an average American, or equivalent to a 2% pay raise, according to the article

Read more…

Production in 3 biggest US oil fields – Aug. ’14

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(Photo by James Ulvog. Four wells on a pad was big news only a short while ago. Now 4 is a small site.)

Only 10 oil fields have surpassed a production level of one million barrels a day. Currently three of them are running in the U.S.:  Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian.

I’ve been wanting to find a source for Eagle Ford production. After reading a Carpe Diem post (which I can’t find again), I found a great source: the Energy Information Administration’s Drilling Productivity Report. Check out the second tab, Production by region, and the report data on the right side of the page.

Here is the production for the three top regions, in average daily production for each month from January 2007 through September 2014. Data for the last three months is estimated.

3 field production 8-14

Two notes on the data.

Read more…

The shale revolution shown in a graph

If you want to see what a radical change is underway in the energy field, check out this graph of combined oil production from the three biggest plays, Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian:

 

combined production 3 fields 6-14

 

That’s from America’s Amazing Shale Revolution in one chart by Carpe Diem and is used with permission.

Read more…

The shale revolution. Or, what Peak Oil? #33

The change in oil production in the last few years is astounding. For perspective, look at the following two charts by Prof. Mark Perry, from his Carpe Diem blog. Both graphs used with permission:

Oil production in Texas:

 TexasOil 2013 carpe diem

From The remarkable rise of Texas crude oil: The state produced nearly one billion barrels last year, and 34.5% of all US crude. Just under a billion barrels. That’s around a third of US production.

Oil production in North Dakota took off in 2008: Read more…

3 background articles on the energy revolution – – Energy boom may expand into Mexico, What energy crisis?, and Bakken in graphs

Bloomberg – North America to Drown in Oil as Mexico Ends Monopoly 

Potentially another game changer for world-wide energy – – the Mexican legislature has changed national law to allow foreign investors to own oil reserves. This will draw the major oil companies with their talent, equipment, funding, and infrastructure. Speculation is oil production from Mexico could double in a decade. 

Still some major obstacles, but the potential is huge. The Mexican government and her people could benefit tremendously. I really hope they handle this well, for their good and the good of everyone who uses energy.

Newsday – Remember the energy crisis? Fracking fixed it.

Notice that the constant stories of the “energy crisis” isn’t in the news anymore. If you were around in the ‘70s you remember long lines to buy gas on your assigned even or odd day. Crisis stories continued for years, through the entire Carter administration and beyond.

Read more…

Bakken and Eagle Ford in the elite of super-giant oil fields

Production of Bakken oil in North Dakota will soon hit one million barrels a day. When it does, it will be one of only 4 fields in the U.S. to hit that level. Those 4 are part of an elite group of only 10 super-giant fields.

Applying some new trend analysis concepts, the EIA is predicting Bakken production will be 976K bopd in 11-13 and 1,002K bopd in 12-13.

I’m not sure if that estimate includes production from legacy wells. Even if it does and we back out September production of 65K bopd that only changes the date of crossing the 1M point by a month or so. That doesn’t matter for purposes of this discussion.

Their calculation shows Eagle Ford has already passed the 1M point. Permian production has been over the 1M point (again?) for a while and is at an estimated 1,340K bopd in December.

Along with Prudhoe Bay that makes four American fields that passed the 1M point.

Read more…

Forecasts for Eagle Ford production

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Previously mentioned a report from EIA that said production in Eagle Ford would be over 1M bopd in October and November. That confused me.

Got myself straightened out.

That amount includes condensates as well as crude oil. Aha! I’m a little slow on the update sometimes, but I’m catching on. Slowly.

Read more…

Eagle Ford production passes the 1M bopd level in October?

The Energy Information Administration released a report about 2 weeks ago reporting their estimates of what production will be in 6 major fields for October and November.

Read more…

Pronunciation guide to Bakken and Eagle Ford

The point of this blog is to learn, so I have no problem admitting I have yet to catch on to lots of things, like how to pronounce Bakken and Eagle Ford.

Rockin’ the Bakken

Learned on my recent trip to North Dakota that Bakken is pronounced with an ‘ah’. It isn’t Bacon or Back-en.

Read more…

Overview of shale oil & gas along with need for sustainable development for booming areas

Professor Tom Tunstall has a great TEDx San Antonio presentation. He provides a high level overview of shale oil and gas.

Update 12-16-13:  You can view his presentation directly on YouTube. I watched again today. It is superb.

Update 12-27-13:  Eagle Ford Shale blog has a list of seven takeaways – Eagle Ford Growth Means Opportunity – TED Talk – Video .

Update: Why does the Eagle Ford shale field run across the border into Mexico but production stops at the Rio Grande? Political and economic issues depress production in Mexico. As I’ve long said, you don’t have to benefit from the energy under the ground.

He also goes into detail about the needs for local communities in boom areas to focus not just on roads, but the full range of infrastructure, such as K-12 schools, water treatment, hospitals & clinics, parks, and community meeting places. The full range of quality-of-life issues have a major role in people deciding where to live.

Wise local leaders will try to develop other industries that will sustain when there is a slowdown in energy. As a starter idea, he suggests higher end agriculture, such as raising olives and processing olive oil. Hunting, geothermal, water desalinization are other options. 

Great video. Prof Tunstall’s section is about 10 minutes long. Well worth your time.

His portion starts about the 7 hour, 11 minute point. Here is the link again: http://new.livestream.com/tedx/TEDxSanAntonio/videos/32045908 

Eagle Ford output passes 600K bopd in June – another prediction for 1M bopd in Bakken and Eagle Ford

Carpe Diem summarizes great news that “Eagle Ford June oil output increased 60% from a year ago to a new record high; will likely surpass Bakken next summer.”

Initial report shows production in Eagle Ford was about 621,000 barrels a day during June.

I haven’t figured out how to either track or understand the reports on Eagle Ford oil. The initial data is revised higher as additional companies report their data. For example, from my notes the initial reports rise anywhere from 26k bopd (9-12) up to 90k bopd (1-13) when all the data is in. That means that final tally for June is likely to be anywhere from 650k to near 700k.

The production race, million barrel prediction

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The race is on – when will Eagle Ford and Bakken hit a million barrels a day?

I’ve been tracking predictions for when Bakken hits a million barrels a day. Both Carpe Diem and Million Dollar Way put a prediction on the table today.

Check out the astounding increase in production in Eagle Ford shown in the graph from Carpe Diem: Energy fact of the day: Eagle Ford Shale sets new oil output record in May, will likely surpass Bakken Shale next year.

Production in May was 581,923 bopd, per the preliminary report.

Read more…

Survey of shale oil; also the Peak Oil Myth – #26

Matt Ridley provides an overview of the flood of fracked shale oil in his post, The dash for shale oil will shake the world.

He points to The Shale Oil Boom: a US Phenomenon, a newly released report from Leonardo Maugeri.

I’ve mentioned this in the past, but look again at the explosion of estimated recoverable oil in Bakken: Read more…

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