Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Archive for the tag “North Dakota”

Increasing employment in Bakken?

Workover rig, immediately north of Williston. Photo by James Ulvog.

Workover rig, immediately north of Williston. Photo by James Ulvog.

Update:  Greetings to readers arriving from The Million Dollar Way! Enjoy! Oh, by the way MDW, you are very welcome.  For other readers, if you enjoy my writing on energy in general, Bakken in particular, and the wide open frontier of the energy revolution, somewhere around one-quarter of the credit for what I know goes to the learning provided by MDW.

I’ll make a guess we will be hearing lots more stories of hiring in Bakken. Some recent articles:

  • Two articles on oil companies hiring fracking crews
  • Scuttlebutt is staffing shortages to develop
  • Two articles on Target Logistics converting crew camp into hotel

12/29 – Grand Forks Herald at Dickinson press – Oil companies hiring fracking crews in Bakken – Job Service North Dakota said there are 60 companies wanting to staff up fracking crews. Each crew will need between 45 and 65 workers, so that something in the range of 300 or 350 jobs in the new year.

Let’s extend that out. The Million Dollar Way helps us in a post asking Worker Shortage Looming In The Bakken on 12/30.

It takes about two or three days to frack a well. Assume two wells per crew per week. That would be 12 wells a week for 6 crews, or somewhere around 48 wells in a four-week month. Keep in mind that’s on top of whatever fracking crews are in the field now.

Read more…

Oil production in North Dakota drops 1% in November

daily-output-since-2008-1-17

Above graph shows the average daily production in North Dakota statewide and in the Bakken field. Output in November dropped to 1,033,693 bopd from October production of 1,043,318 (revised), a change of 9,625, or down 0.92%.

Mr. Lynn Helms has some observations, reported by Amy Dalrymple, ND Oil Production Stays Above 1 Million Barrels in November.

Read more…

North Dakota rig count trending up in late 2016

Drilling rig in North Dakota during October 2013 to go along with previous two pictures. Photo by James Ulvog.

Drilling rig in North Dakota during October 2013. This was taken same day as previous two pictures. Photo by James Ulvog.

The rig count is slowly increasing. Not a dramatic increase and nothing like the high point, but a noticeable change from the mid-20s in the spring and the 30s during the summer and fall.

By the way, this explains the slight change in employment in Williston mentioned in the previous post.

Here is a recap of the North Dakota rig count, all from Million Dollar Way, other than during my trip to Williston in November 2016.

Read more…

14 wells on one site southwest of Williston, the Atlanta wells – part 2 of 2

14 well pad next to Missouri River with Williston in distance. Photo by James Ulvog.

14 well pad next to Missouri River with Williston in distance, looking northeast. To find the pad, look for the light horizontal patch to the left of the bridge after the road crosses the left side of the river. Photo by James Ulvog.

Previous post described a well pad southwest of Williston that holds 14 working wells. These are referred to as the Atlanta wells.

I got some great pictures of the site from the air and from the ground on my recent trip to Williston.  Million Dollar Way just updated the production information for the 14 wells. So, decided to bring all that info together.

If you want to find this mega-producer, the address is 4750 141st Ave. NW, Williston. If you want to drive there, be advised the road off the 85 shown on Google maps isn’t there anymore. You will need to take a nearby side street. Coordinates are 48.109623, -103.729930 if you want to look them up on Google maps.  The pad is north of the Missouri River and west of the US 85 bridge over the river. 

Statistical data

The Million Dollar Way has been following these wells for several years. Check out this post for background and production data:

Here is some statistical data for the wells.

Read more…

14 wells on one site southwest of Williston, the Atlanta wells – part 1 of 2

14 wells on one pad, southwest of Williston. Photo by James Ulvog.

14 wells on one pad, southwest of Williston. Photo by James Ulvog.

There is one site southwest of Williston that holds 14 working wells. They are referred to as the Atlanta wells. Check out the photo above and following.

If you want to find these things, the address is 4750 141st Ave. NW, Williston. Coordinates are 48.109623, -103.729930 if you want to look them up on Google maps. It is immediately to the north of the Missouri River close to the bridge on U.S. 85 crossing the river. 

On my trip to Williston over Thanksgiving 2016 I was able to take some aerial pictures since I flew in on United flight from Denver, meaning we flew in to Williston from the south. I was also able to drive out to the site and take pictures from a public road immediately north of the site.

Six wells on east side of pad. Photo by James Ulvog.

Six wells on east side of pad. Photo by James Ulvog.

Read more…

Employment activity picking up in Bakken

'Spose that more of those things are why employment is picking up in North Dakota? Photo by James Ulvog.

‘Spose that more of those things getting to work is why employment is picking up in North Dakota? Photo by James Ulvog.

A few indications appear that employment may be trending up in Williston and the surrounding area. Also, the direction of people moving into and out of the state finally shifted to net out-migration in 2016.

12/18 – The Million Dollar Way – Job Shortage Looming in The Bakken – Pointer to following article describing an uptick in hiring for oil jobs in Williston. Biggest specific increase is for fracking crews, which need around 45 or 65 people for each crew.

Read more…

North Dakota oil production increases 7.3% in October 2016

Those wells are just lined up so nice and neatly. Ponder the millions of gallons of gasoline each will generate. Photo by James Ulvog.

Those pads are just lined up so nice and neatly for mile after mile on each section line. Ponder the millions of gallons of gasoline each well will generate. Photo by James Ulvog.

Production saw a big increase in October. Output climbed from 971,760 in September (final) to 1,043,207 (preliminary). That is a 7% jump, moving production across the 1M point. That is a big increase. Why? Then some comparisons, then a couple of graphs.

Lynn Helms attributes the increase to operators opening up wells that had been throttled back and a few big wells coming on line, according a quote in the Wall Street Journal, North Dakota Crude Oil Output Rises to a Five-Month High. Yeah, the WSJ quoted Mr. Helms. They ran an article the day of his press conference to discuss the monthly report. How ‘bout that?

That is an increase of 71,447 bopd, the largest increase in one month going all the way back to 1989. Other months with increases of 40K bopd or more were:

  • 54,065 – September 2014
  • 52,099 – June 2014
  • 50,845 – July 2013
  • 42,653 – February 2013

That is an increase of 7.35%. Going back to 1989, the only months with a higher increases on a percentage basis were:

  • 10.2% – July 2011 – up 39,351 bopd
  • 10.6% – February 2010 – up 24,958 bopd

Some graphs…

Read more…

Random updates from Bakken

A new well is likely to produce about a million barrels of oil, compared to half a million from a well drilled several years ago. Photo by James Ulvog.

A new well is likely to produce about a million barrels of oil, compared to half a million from a well drilled several years ago. Photo by James Ulvog.

A few articles of late:

  • 2 hotels closed in Williston
  • Ground broken for new Williston airport
  • Each Bakken well now expected to produce a million or 1.5 million barrels of oil

9/27 – Williston Herald at Dickinson Press – Two Williston hotels closing their doors – An owner of two hotels with total of 105 rooms will be closing them this week. Both are on the market, for $3.0M and $3.2M. One of them reportedly had drugs sales and prostitution on site during the boom.

Don’t worry too much about capacity. There’s a huge number of hotels open in Williston, especially compared to three or four years ago. Also, those hotels won’t be going anywhere. When the drilling picks up, someone else can pick up those empty hotels for a real bargain. When the space is needed, they will be open.

10/10 – Amy Dalrymple at Oil Patch Dispatch – Williston Breaks Ground on New $240 Million Airport – Construction is underway for the new airport. It will have a 7,500 foot runway and four gates at the terminal. The new airport will be able to handle planes that can hold 165 passengers instead of the 50 passenger jets in use at the current airport.

Currently there are five daily flights into Williston, which is down from 11 at the busiest time of the boom.

12/4 – Million Dollar Way – The Bakken: How Things Stand Near the End of the Year 2016 –  The productivity increase in the last few years is staggering. Here are a few tidbits from the article, which is a survey of recent quarterly releases from the drilling companies.

Estimated Ultimate Recovery, EUR, is the amount of oil to be drawn from the well, I believe with only primary recovery. A few years ago (2011), the typical EURs were 550K barrels from middle Bakken and 450K from Three Forks bench. Read more…

Musing on oil prices and the oil industry; future for shale is looking good

Out of focus picture by James Ulvog.

Out of focus photo by James Ulvog. (Yeah, yeah, I know – don’t give up my day job.)

First article below says that predicting oil prices is a fool’s errand. The payoff of trying to do so, it seems to me, is it requires diving into the dynamics and trying to understand the production and demand aspects underlying the price of oil. Second article below delves into the dynamics.

11/28 – The Million Dollar Way – Musings on Shale as We Anticipate the “OPEC Meeting” – Discussion points me to the next article, which I would have missed otherwise.

Mr. Oksol agrees with the major points: OPEC’s effort (meaning Saudi Arabia) to shut down shale producers has been unsuccessful. They tried this once before back in the 1980s.

On the second point, he agrees shale producers will respond fast to any rise in prices.

Author agrees that the phrase “big bet” is an acceptable way to describe the Saudi strategy to take out shale producers but thinks a more accurate description would be “trillion dollar mistake.” As for me, either description works well.

11/28 – Mark Mills at Forbes – Shale Wars: Whither Oil Prices As Saudi Arabia Lets The Big Bet Play Out? – The author, to whom you need to pay serious attention if you are otherwise reading my blog, asks two questions on his way to sort out where oil prices are going:

  • How much damage has Saudi Arabia caused the shale drillers? In other words will they be able to respond to any change in prices are they out of the game.
  • If the answer is yes, how fast will shale drillers be able to respond?

Read more…

Visit to Williston during Thanksgiving 2016

November 2016 photo by James Ulvog.

November 2016 photo by James Ulvog.

Just got back from a visit to Williston to see family during Thanksgiving week. Had a delightful time. Even got to drive around the oil field a little bit.

Got lots of new photos. A lot!

I reeeeeeally lucked out and glanced out the window at just the right time.  Got a bunch of photos of the wing-toasting facilities at Ivanpah.

For example:

Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System. November 2016 photo by James Ulvog.

Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System. November 2016 photo by James Ulvog.

During the rain and overcast that start afternoon on Saturday and ran until around sundown on Sunday, the towers probably weren’t quite so bird-killing white-hot.

Drilling rigs

There is one rig in the city of Williston and two rigs a mile or two north of town.

Read more…

More North Dakota production information

Previous post showed the oil production in North Dakota through August 2016. Here is some more info on production in the state. Data is extracted from the  monthly “Director’s Report” and historical production data.

Average sweet crude prices for North Dakota oil. This reflects a discount from the West Texas Intermediate due to transportation costs.

 

sweet-crude-10-16

Here is the value of monthly production based on actual output multiplied by the average sweet crude price rolled into the preceding graph:

Read more…

Oil production in North Dakota drops 4.7% in August, slipping below the 1 million level

state-and-bakken-output-10-16

Above graph shows the average daily production in North Dakota statewide and in the Bakken field. Output in August dropped from 1,029,734 barrels of oil per day (bopd) (revised) to 981,039 bopd (preliminary), a change of 48,695 bopd, or 4.73%.

This is the first month with average daily production below 1 million bopd since March 2014.

Here is the average daily production by month since 2004:

Read more…

Still more amazing news from Bakken

Workover rig in October 2014. Photo by James Ulvog.

Workover rig in October 2014. Photo by James Ulvog.

In contrast to the horrible news mentioned yesterday from Venezuela, consider the the amazing news from the open frontier of energy production. The benefits produced by fracking just don’t seem to stop.

9/23 – The Million Dollar Way –Update On The Bakkan – Lynn Helms – A few highlights in the article from a radio interview I found particularly fascinating:

  • Production in North Dakota will drop below 1M bopd but Mr. Helms does not expected to go below 900K bopd.
  • Initial production rates had been 1100 bopd but are now running 1500 bopd.
  • Estimated Ultimate Recovery amounts have increased one-fourth.
  • There are somewhere between 8000 and 8500 wells that are good candidates for refracking because they are initially drilled with old technology.
  • This is astounding – a drilling rig today drills an average of 25 wells in a year compared to only 8 or 9 wells as recently as 2009. Imagine the improved IRR.
  • Drilling efficiencies have come from multi-well pads, new technology for bits, new technology promoters, and new technology for mud. Ponder the impact of technology.
Closeup of workover rig. Photo by James Ulvog.

Closeup of workover rig. Photo by James Ulvog.

9/23 – The Million Dollar Way – FAQ: How Much Oil Can One Reasonably Expect That A Bakken Well Will Produce Over The Lifetime Of That Well? – Astounding information.

Read more…

Two new wind power farms in North Dakota

Operational condition of wind turbines in California for 86% of the time in first quarter of 2015. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Operational condition of wind turbines in California for 86% of the time in first quarter of 2015. This is a still photo but visual would be the same if this was an hour-long video, other than a few coyotes wandering around wondering why their avian lunch wasn’t delivered to the usual spot. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

More articles on wind power in North Dakota.

  • Background on why wind cannot provide base load of electricity we need to live a modern life.
  • Capacity info for a new wind farm.
  • Capacity for another wind farm and worries from regulators that the increase in power from wind and decrease in power from coal may soon create instability in the electricity grid.

8/5 – Dickinson Press – Power generated by wind adds to grid, but it’s still backup to coal in North Dakota – If you are just tuning in to energy issues, check out this article. It provides background to the idea that the electricity we need all the time is from what is called base load, which comes primarily from coal plants in North Dakota.

Read more…

North Dakota oil production drops 2% in June

Total crude oil production in the state dropped 20,419 bopd, going from 1,047,003 bopd in May to 1,026,584 bopd in June. That is a decline of 1.95%. I’ll make a guess that another month or two will see production cross the one million point.

The Director’s Cut is guessing the low prices, and consequent low rig count, will last through third quarter this year or second quarter of next year.

Just one graph today:

oil production 08 to 6-16

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