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We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Archive for the tag “regulation experiment”

Slivers of evidence for results of state-legal recreational marijuana use – #28

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The reason I am watching the newly state-legal recreational marijuana markets is to see the impact of heavy regulation on the industry.

A related issue is the social results of recreational marijuana. Here are a few articles providing some early hints of the results. Perhaps these are nothing more than slivers of hints. Yet there are some early indications. On the other hand, perhaps these are merely transition and implementation issues.

11/2 – Wall Street Journal – A Brave New Weed / The costs so fare from marijuana legalization are higher than advertised – This grand experiment in legalizing marijuana is going full steam. As ought to be expected, there are substantial costs.

The massively important question is whether the increased costs in some areas are worth the drastically lower costs in other areas (mass incarceration, militarization of law enforcement, severe enforcement costs).

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Tension between federal law and state-legal recreational marijuana – #27

Photo courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Photo courtesy of Adobe Stock.

I am watching developments in Colorado and Oregon for the newly state-legal recreational use of marijuana. Just as a reminder, my interest is not in marijuana. My curiosity is focused on how much of a drag a burdensome and expensive regulatory structure will create for a newly legalized industry.

My hypothesis is the heavy-handed regulations will be crushing and the expected result will be to severely restrain a new industry.

A related tangent is the tension between recreational marijuana use being legal in certain states under state law yet still illegal at the federal level. Here are a few articles I’ve read on this tension.

7/22 – Slate, originally at Inc. – Why Colorado Marijuana Businesses Suddenly Have an IRS Problem – Tax attorneys and accountants are saying there may be something in the range of 30 marijuana businesses in Colorado under IRS audit for their 2014 and 2015 taxes.

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Election results on recreational marijuana – #26

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Results from the fall 2016 elections show spread of recreational marijuana. That means there will be a lot more states to keep an eye on to see how severely the regulations affect in a new industry.

Currently I’m trying to keep an eye on developments in Colorado and Oregon, since they are further along in the experiment of regulating the industry. At this point I’ll also keep an eye on California, which is one of the states which just voted to allow recreational use. Since I live in California, it will be easier to keep an eye on the regulatory environment.

11/8 – Washington Post – Marijuana wins big on election night – Looks like I’ll need to spend a lot more time watching the crushing effect of overregulation on newly legal industries.

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Update on marijuana regulation: #24

Image courtesy of DollaPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollaPhotoClub.com

Not much that I’ve noticed in the news about regulation of the recreational marijuana market. Here are a few things of interest. Reminder: Reason I’m following this issue is to watch a natural experiment on whether over-regulation will crush a new industry.

4/20 – Kelly Phillips Erb at Forbes – On 4/20, It’s High Time to Think About Taxes, Revenues & Marijuana Great survey of how we got to the place we are today.

How the marijuana laws have developed, the Department of Justice’s effort to look the other way when states have legalized either medical or recreational marijuana, and the IRS’ stand that most costs of running a marijuana business are non-deductible.

 

Also, some discussion on how likely Congress is to make changes to federal law. Current assessment: not likely. Doing so would appear to be soft on crime. Current mess with opioid abuse would make any efforts to legalize marijuana appear to be bad.

6/16 – MarketWatch – Microsoft gets into the weed business One of the requirements in those states where recreational marijuana is legal is the need to track every bit of marijuana from the seed that germinated into a plant all the way to the specific end product the marijuana went into.

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Update on marijuana regulation – #23

Image courtesy of DollaPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollaPhotoClub.com

I have not noticed a lot of coverage of the efforts to regulate the newly state-legal business of recreational marijuana. Here are a few articles catching my interest.

As a reminder, I am watching the efforts in Colorado and Oregon to develop a new industry which is highly regulated. This is a natural experiment to test my hypothesis that heavy-handed regulation will constrain a new industry.

1/5 – Denver Post via The Cannabist – Federal judge tosses Colorado marijuana banking lawsuit – State of Colorado chartered a credit union, the Fourth Corner Credit Union, with its business model of serving the state-legal marijuana industry. The credit union requested a master agreement allowing it to access the Federal Reserve system and thus participate in the banking system.

The FRB denied the application. The credit union sued.

A federal judge threw out the suit on the basis that allowing the credit union to operate would “facilitate criminal activity” since marijuana is illegal under federal law.

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Update on marijuana regulation – use of pesticides in Colorado – #22

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

My hypothesis is that state legalization of recreational marijuana sales is a giant natural experiment to test whether heavy-handed state regulation will constrict a newly legalized industry.

My interest in this topic is limited to watching how regulation slows economic development. Recreational marijuana is a new enough and small enough industry that we can actually watch the impact of regulation. Here are a few articles on recent news I have noticed:

10/4 – Denver Post at The Cannabist – Deep dive: Why Colorado has struggled to regulate pot pesticides – Article points out the EPA has provided no guidance on what pesticides are safe on marijuana.

According to the article, this left state regulators and the marijuana industry arguing about what pesticides are allowed and what is banned. Multiple comments indicated regulators wanted more restrictions and industry wanted very light restrictions.

The article follows the typical arguments you would expect for any industry that is regulated by the state or federal government. See if the following sounds like the same story as in dozens of other industries:

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Update on marijuana regulation – Ohio says no, North Dakota thinking about it – #21

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Haven’t seen much news from Colorado or Washington on regulating marijuana. On the other hand, I haven’t been looking much. As a reminder, I’m watching this topic to see how badly heavy-handed regulation restrains a new industry.

Some news from other states moving toward legalization. North Dakota is taking some steps. Ohio stops.

1/2 – Rob Port at Say Anything Blog – Read What Medical Marijuana Supporters Are Hoping To Put On North Dakota’s Ballot – Article summarizes the proposed initiative to authorize medical marijuana in North Dakota.

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Update on marijuana regulation: Supporting businesses are starting up, including a CPA firm – #20

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

For background, I am watching the newly state-legal recreational marijuana markets develop in Colorado and elsewhere. My hypothesis, and the reason for my coverage, is that heavy-handed state regulation will strangle a new industry.

10/1 – Accounting Today – Blazing a Trail / A Colorado CPA finds success serving the growing marijuana industry – A CPA in Colorado started getting so much work from cannabis businesses that he started a new firm and moved all that work out of the old firm. The new firm has three partners with total of 10 staff (I think that includes the partners).

Several surprises in the article.

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Update on marijuana regulation – #19

Image of fake license plate courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Image of fake license plate courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Here are a few articles on the status of legalized marijuana in Colorado. Remember I’m following this issue to see what impact heavy-handed regulation has on a newly legalized industry. Two recent articles and an older one I just found.

8/11 – AP at Bismarck Tribune – Colorado may ban ‘candy’ name on marijuana treats – The state government has proposals out that would require better disclosure that an edible product contains THC. A red stop sign with the letters THC would be required on the label. Candy type items won’t be labeled as candy. Liquids would only be produced in single serving containers.

6/6 – Newsweek – The Unexpected Side Effects of Legalizing Weed – Article labels as unexpected a number of side effects from legalizing recreational use of marijuana in Colorado.

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Update on marijuana regulation – #18

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

I haven’t seen much news on the legalized marijuana industry lately. Maybe I’ve not been paying enough attention.

For a reminder, the reason I’m talking about this issue is my hypothesis that overregulation will severely constrain this brand new industry. This is a natural experiment on how regulation affects an industry.

6/22 – Bloomberg Business – This Survey Says That Marijuana Prices Are Crashing in Colorado – Article cites a survey by a brokerage firm providing the following estimates of recreational marijuana prices at retail: Read more…

Update on marijuana regulation – #17

As a reminder, I’m watching the legalization of recreational marijuana to see what effect heavy-handed regulation has on a newly legal industry. My hypothesis? Overbearing regulation will restrict, if not strangle, an emerging industry.

4/9 – New York Times – Marijuana Taxes Won’t Save State Budgets – The governor’s office has dropped their estimate of taxes from recreational marijuana sales for the year ending June 30, 2015 from $118M back in February 2014 to $69M now.

That is a mere 0.2% of the state budget, less than a quarter of one percent. The trivial amount massively undercuts the concept that pot taxes will be a big help for state budgets, which is one of the secondary reasons touted to legalize marijuana.

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Update on marijuana regulation – #16

In case you were wondering, I’m watching the legalization of recreational marijuana to see what effect heavy-handed regulation has on a newly legal industry. My hypothesis? Overbearing regulation will restrict, if not strangle, an emerging industry.

Articles discussed in this post: taxes raised from recreational marijuana in Colorado may have to be returned to taxpayers and two radically different plans for legalization in Ohio.

4/1 – New York Times – In Colorado, Marijuana Taxes May Have to Be Passed Back – The taxpayer’s bill of rights in Colorado requires that when the state collects more money that it forecast on passing the state budget, the excess has to go back to taxpayers. Sounds like an okay plan, right?

Wrinkle in that plan is that all programs generating money get hit. Apparently the details in the voter approved plan will require that most or all of the money collected on sales of recreational marijuana may have to be returned to the taxpayers somehow.

To whom and how much remains to be determined. State legislators want to keep the money, of course. So they are trying to figure out how to not return it to the taxpayers.

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More good stuff on the Bakken – 3/17

Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post. I’ll come back to the first article later this week.

3/15 – Bismarck Tribune – Oil adds $43 billion to economy, study say – Research by North Dakota State University profs calculate that oil and gas add $43B to the state’s economy. In 2013, they calculated the energy industry added 55,000 direct jobs and another 26,000 indirectly. Report is available here.

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Some days the world goes extra bizarre just to keep me laughing

Yesterday was one of those days the internet went out of its way to keep me laughing at the world’s silliness. Might just be my sense of humor.  Or maybe not, so follow along if you wish to see if you can find a few smiles and laughs. Perhaps it is just that I’ve been following the strangling impact of heavy-handed regulation of new industries that these stories are so funny.

Three discussions:  Stoner rabbits, marijuana industry as a service niche for CPAs, and Jr Deputy Accountant is back.

Stoner rabbits

The Utah legislators should vote down the medical marijuana proposal because a lot of bunny rabbits and other cuddly little critters will get stoned.

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More indications of the battle between free enterprise and regulation in Washington’s recreational marijuana market

A reader pointed me toward this report from CNBC: Washington has more pot than it can smoke.

Feels like I hit a jackpot in watching the battle between free enterprise and crushing regulation. Follow along with me as I highlight the story with editorial comments on capitalism and regulation.

You may want to get a fresh cup of coffee. This will be along article.

Why so much discussion?

Why am I spending so much time writing about medical marijuana? As a general matter I don’t give a hoot about this marketplace because I have zero interest in this or any other market for intoxicants.

The medical marijuana markets are a natural experiment in a small, separately visible, newly created market and the impact regulation has on the development of that sort-of-legal industry.

Opportunities to see whether regulations strangle an industry are so limited everywhere else in the economy because other markets are large, well-developed, complex, intertwined, and have already adjusted to regulation.

With medical marijuana we can watch a brand-new industry adjust to brand-new regulations.

Back to the article.

There is apparently a huge excess supply of recreational marijuana over demand in Washington State.

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