Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

North Dakota oil production remains steady in May 2019.

Photo by James Ulvog.

Oil production in North Dakota increased slightly to average of 1,393,284 BOPD in May 2019 (preliminary), up 799 BOPD from April (revised).

Rig count has been flat, ranging from low of 61 to high of 67 during the last 12 months.

An odd factor this month is small increase in production (up 799 bopd/day, 0.06%) with increase in producing wells of 194 (+1.26%).

Lynn Helms is cited in article at Bismarck Tribune (7/16/19 –Oil Production steady in May, but transportation woes persist) suggesting this is due to old legacy wells that produce around 25 barrels a day being closed in for the winter and then brought on-line from late spring until fall.

Economic driver explaining this is the costs of plowing roads and hauling oil makes such wells uneconomical in the winter. Thus they are taken off line in the winter.

The number of inactive wells dropped by 69 in May.

The two month changes are:

  • 141 – drop in inactive wells
  • 185 – well completions
  • 337 – increase in producing well count

That leaves an increase of 11 producing wells that isn’t explained by drop in inactive wells and completions.

Here is what the average production looks like:

Read more…

North Dakota oil production expected to accelerate this year. Also two more new huge oil finds where oil wasn’t expected.

Photo by James Ulvog.

Latest guess, from someone who has a clue about such issues, on where production is going in North Dakota is somewhere around 1.5M or 1.6M barrels a day late this year or early next year.

Huge finds off coast of Guyana and in New Mexico/Texas.

Question needs to be asked again:  What Peak Oil?

 

The Million Dollar Way – 7/7/19 – ND Oil Production to Surge – Lynn Helms. Citing another source, the article says Lynn Helms, director of DMR, thinks production in North Dakota will surge later this year after gas infrastructure construction is done.

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First sentencing in college admissions scandal

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

A sentence has been handed down in the first of the college admission scandal cases to reach a judge. The former sailing coach at Stanford received:

  • $10,000 fine
  • 1 day in jail, already served
  • 6 months house detention
  • 2 years supervised release, i.e. probation

(Cross-posted to my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

Prosecutors recommended 13 months in prison.

Several articles pointed out this person is the lease culpable of those lined up for sentencing. He did not receive any money directly.

If I read the articles correctly, the only student admitted as part of this scheme was not actually an athlete and has since been expelled.  No other students were admitted.

One key point of detention is an assessment of what type of crime is present.

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What is the total federal and state tax on gasoline in California?

Ever wondered what you are paying in direct taxes for that gas? Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

State tax on gasoline in California went up again on July 1. Have you been wondering what is the federal & state tax load on a gallon of gas in the state? I was. So I calculated it.

The total excise and sales tax load levied the federal and state level is 72.5 cents a gallon, which is 23.9% on top of the cost of gas.

On July 1, CNBC reported After tax hike, gas in California is now a dollar higher than the national average.

State excise tax went up 5.6 cents for each gallon bringing total state haul to 47.3 cents.

Oh, the 2017 bill that imposed the tax hike also contained an inflation adjustment.

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Intro and update to college admissions scandal

Lots of things going on behind closed doors that have drawn the focused attention of the U.S. Attorney in Boston. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The pretend-to-be-an-athlete-in-a-sport-you-have-never-even-played scandal in higher education is one of many issues I have not focused on over the last year or more.

Family issues have pulled me away from blogging. Hope to start getting caught up on the massive changes taking place around us. I’ll begin with the college admissions disaster.

(Article cross-posted from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.

Brief background:

A large number of parents were paying Mr. William “Rick” Singer to help their children get into colleges where their kids wouldn’t otherwise gain admission.

More background:

The schemes, according to a long string of articles covered in most newspapers which I won’t link, included techniques such as:

  • Creating fake profile of the student being a competitive athlete when the student had not even played the sport.
  • Paying to have another person take your SAT or ACT tests.
  • Hiring a proctor to oversee extra-testing time and then correcting answers.

Flow of cash was complicated, as expected. Most of the dollars went to a non-profit foundation set up by Mr. Singer. He then distributed portions of the money to college sports coaches, proctors, and other participants. Some of the payments went directly from the parents to the colleges.

Oh, by making those payments to a charity, the payments became tax deductible. So there is also a tax fraud angle for all the involved parents to ponder. You can easily guess someone from IRS Criminal Investigations is involved in each of the cases.

Current status:

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US hits all time record high for oil production, is now net oil exporter, and is set to surpass Saudi Arabia in export of crude & oil products.

16 reasons US has been moving towards a net exporter of energy and finally hit that point. Well visible right of center with Missouri river in background. Williston, North Dakota. Photo by James Ulvog.

The changes in energy production over recent years is astounding.

My blogging has dropped off a lot over the last year or so due to distractions. Have a huge backlog of things to discuss, such as:

  • The US is a net oil exporter
  • Oil production in US is at all time record high
  • Sometime later this year the US will be exporting more oil product than Saudia Arabia

MSN – 12/7/18 – US ends its reliance on foreign oil for the first time in 75 years – In the last week of November 2018, the US exported more oil than we imported. The US is now a net exporter. Ponder that.

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More tips for people planning a felony. Don’t do it.

This is not a wise strategy for addressing the judge who will preside over your criminal trial. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Previously mentioned several tips for people planning to commit a felony. For example, don’t take your location tracking fitbit with you while you carry out a contract assassination. Why? The location data will testify you were at the scene of the crime the very instant the crime was committed.

Some more helpful tips.

Tip #10

As you are preparing your case as you represent yourself and approach your first day of trial for threatening to kill someone and ignoring a restraining order, don’t sent a written death threat to the judge who is trying your case. Reported in Williston Herald on 2/25/19: Man accused of threats sends threatening letter to judge before first day of trial.

A man facing trial for terrorizing and violating a restraining order (class C felony and class A misdemeanor) for harassing a women is representing himself at trial. During the three hours that constituted the first day of trial, he did not question any jurors, did not make an opening statement, and only asked one question of one witness with said question obviously irrelevant to his case.

In the days before trial starting, the guy sent a letter to the judge saying that the judge is now on the list of people that the defendant will kill.

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Last 12 months are best ever for oil production in North Dakota. Oh, what peak oil?

Photo by David Ulvog. Used with permission.

Record high level of oil production in the state was 1,403,844 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in January 2019. April production averaged 1,391,188 bopd (preliminary).

Before the slump in prices and drilling, the record high was 1,229.572 bopd in December 2014.

Since production bottomed out at an average of 942,322 bopd in December 2016, production has been climbing.

Production in June 2018 and every month since then has been above the December 2014 level. Even with winter weather, production has been in the neighborhood of the 1.4M bopd level for the last eight months, apart from small drop in February.

Graph of average production in the state and Bakken formation since 2008:

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Memorial Day: gratitude for those who did not return

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

 

To family and friends of those who did not return, I humbly say:

My deepest condolences on your loss.

From someone who appreciates the price paid for the freedom I cherish everyday, please accept my thank you on behalf of your loved one who paid the price that my family and I can live free.

“Thank you” is so little, but it is all I have to give you.

 

 

“Here rests in honored glory an American soldier known but to God” Tomb of Unknown Soldier 002 – Arlington National Cemetery – 2012 by Tim Evanson is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

 

 

Rosecrans National Cemetery, San Diego, California. Photo by James Ulvog.

Guessing game is open again for when oil production in North Dakota will hit 2 million barrels a day

Five reasons North Dakota is second largest oil-producing state in the U.S. Photo by James Ulvog.

First guess I’ve seen since the price slump is for the state to pass the 2 million barrels a day threshold in 2030, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. Reported by Inforum on 5/4/19: Bigger than some of OPEC: North Dakota on track to reach 2 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.

For quite some time I have dialed back my focus on Bakken, so there may be other estimates or guesses out there. This is the first one I’ve noticed.

North Dakota is the second largest oil-producing state in the U.S at 1.4M barrels of oil per day (bopd). Texas continues in first place at 3.49M bopd.

If North Dakota were somehow to join OPEC, Read more…

Oil production in North Dakota in January 2019 only a smidgeon below record level in prior month.

There is another pumpjack to the right of the most visible one. There are two more on the distant horizon. Photo by James Ulvog.

Preliminary production in January is 339 barrels a day below the revised amount for December. Here is how close January’s output came to the record high in December:

  • 1,402,741 – December 2018 – record high
  • 1,402,402 – January 2019 – preliminary

Production data usually changes in the month following initial release. The pattern I’ve noticed is a data for a well or three arrives after the cutoff for the monthly report. So, late reporting for a few wells could push the January 2019 data into record territory.

Before showing a graph of production, wanted to bring in some new data reported by the state regulator. The “Director’s Report” lists the average price for sweet crude in the state and has done so for many years. The report just started listing the average of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pricing for the month.

There is a discount from the price realized in North Dakota compared to WTI because of the cost of transport. That spread, so I understand, has fallen since the DAPL was completed. Here is a revised graph of average price in ND to include an average of WTI:

Read more…

Volume of 2018 oil production in North Dakota hits another record; total value rising.

Photo by James Ulvog.

Total production of oil in North Dakota in 2018 set a record as did the average daily production.  Prices have recovered from their low which means the value of that production is going up but not yet close to setting a record.

All of the following data is from a spreadsheet I maintain, with the raw data pulled from various reports published by the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

Average daily production rose to 1,249,049 bopd in 2018, up from 1,081,543 bopd in 2017. That is an increase of 167,505 bopd, or 15.5%. Previous record was 1,184,009 bopd in 2015.

Average daily production:

 

Total production for the year was 455,902,738 barrels, an increase of 61.1M barrels over the 394.8M produced in 2017.

Total production over the years:

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Well completions by year in North Dakota

Photo by James Ulvog.

While pulling together the graphs of oil production in North Dakota for 2018, I wondered what the trend of well completions might look like.

So, pulled a graph together. Primary source of my data is a spreadsheet I maintain of the monthly information released by the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources. Well completions is one of many data points accumulated on the spreadsheet.

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In 2018, North Dakota oil production broke record level of output 6 times during 8 months.

Two things to notice. Lots of space between pumpjacks means there will eventually be several more wells on that pad. Lack of any storage tanks means the pad is tied directly to an underground pipeline. Photo by James Ulvog.

Oil production in North Dakota hit an all time high of an average of 1,229,572 barrels of oil per day (bopd) back in December 2014.  The effort by Saudi Arabia to flood the market in order to drive down prices in order to collapse the US shale industry slowed production in North Dakota but didn’t succeed in killing the shale sector.

Output fell to a low of 942,322 bopd in December 2017. Output then started rising with a typical slowdown in winter of 2017/2018.  After the winter lull production again climbed.

In 2018, producers in North Dakota broke the record level of production six times in the last eight months. The record-breaking months:

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North Dakota oil production hits another record in December 2018

Photo by James Ulvog.

Average production of crude oil in North Dakota rose 1.79% in December 2018, setting yet another record. The production in December was 1,401,385 bopd (preliminary).

At the end of 2017, production was 1,182,836 ave bopd (final). In one year, that is an increase of 218,549 bopd, or a whopping 18.5%.

Statewide and Bakken shale production has been trending up sharply.  The rapid rise since last winter’s lull is clear.

 

For a longer term perspective, check out the average daily production since 1990:

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