Discussed a superb report from UT San Antonio about the economic impact of the Eagle Ford Shale play here. That new field with very new drilling is having a huge impact on the regional economy.
Update 10-13-12: I have dramatically revised the analysis presented here. I don’t understand the amounts mentioned in the EIA report, particularly when compared to actual production data reported for July. In another post located here, I’ve revised my analysis to show that the July production is generally on track with the moderate scenario forecast. Etiquette rules for blogging and the rules I follow on my blog call for leaving the original comments in place and noting corrections. (That means I don’t do the memory hole routine.) Instead of doing a massive rewrite of this post, I have another post for an update: What’s the production level in Eagle Ford and how does it compare to some recent forecasts?
Update 2: Just in case it isn’t obvious, I continue to be amazed at the Eagle Ford field. It is a game changer nationally and internationally. You really ought to check out the research report. It is superb.
The report has great analysis of the impact on jobs, payroll, and sales tax revenue in the region. The authors have forecasts of production in 2021 and lots of data for the last few years. The report is Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale. I’m neither an economist nor academician, so I can’t appreciate some of the details they have present, but they sure did ‘show their work’ as your high school algebra teacher would say, through footnotes and listing assumptions & formulas for their calculations.
As I wrote my previous post though, I realized something didn’t look right.
Here’s the fantastically wonderful problem. Expected production in April 2012 for gas & condensate is at the level they forecasted for 2014. Expected gas production is at the level projected in 2017.
Let me explain –