Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Archive for the tag “production forecast”

Eagle Ford output passes 600K bopd in June – another prediction for 1M bopd in Bakken and Eagle Ford

Carpe Diem summarizes great news that “Eagle Ford June oil output increased 60% from a year ago to a new record high; will likely surpass Bakken next summer.”

Initial report shows production in Eagle Ford was about 621,000 barrels a day during June.

I haven’t figured out how to either track or understand the reports on Eagle Ford oil. The initial data is revised higher as additional companies report their data. For example, from my notes the initial reports rise anywhere from 26k bopd (9-12) up to 90k bopd (1-13) when all the data is in. That means that final tally for June is likely to be anywhere from 650k to near 700k.

The production race, million barrel prediction

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Peak Oil = Flat Earth? – #23

Has the Peak Oil concept, which is the idea we can calculate the day that oil production irreversibly starts a catastrophic drop and calculate the specific year we use the last drop of oil, finally gone the way of the Flat Earth Society?

The answer is yes. At least that is the suggestion from an article by Mr. Colin Sullivan at EnergyWire: Has ‘peak oil’ gone the way of the Flat Earth Society?

The article starts with a graph from the 1950s showing a bell curve of all the oil production from 1850 through 2200 (yes, that would be 240 years out). The cumulative production to the c.1950s is exactly 90×10^9, or 90B. Proven reserves are 250B barrels. All future discoveries, under a smooth bell curve peaking at 2000 are 910B barrels. Total oil on the planet ever to be produced is precisely 1,250B barrels, give or take a rounding error.

Only problem with the entire concept? It’s wrong. Why? Read more…

Expect to see continuing rise is U.S. oil production – EIA forecast for ’13 and ’14

The Energy Information Administration has a prediction for oil production over the next two years:

EIA estimates U.S. total crude oil production averaged 6.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d from the previous year. Projected domestic crude oil production continues to increase to 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 7.9 million bbl/d in 2014, which would mark the highest annual average level of production since 1988.

Here’s what that looks like in a table:

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Two more predictions on oil production in North Dakota – one an estimate of the date for 1M bopd and the other a never to exceed amount

I’ve been making note of predictions, forecasts, and wild guesses for when oil production in North Dakota will hit a million barrels a day.  I’ve seen another estimate for that. Also saw a prediction with an iron-clad upper limit that Bakken production will never cross.

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Another forecast – Bakken and Eagle Ford fields each to hit 1.3M bopd by 2020

Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm, has a prediction for tight oil production in the U.S.

They are predicting 1.3 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in each of the fields by the end of the decade. That would be about doubling production from current levels.

Reading the full article requires a subscription to Petroleum Economist.

They also predict that Bakken production will hit 750K bopd by the end of 2012.

With June production at 660k bopd and increases of around 20k or 30k bopd each month, I don’t think it will take until the end of the year to hit 750k.

(h/t: BakkenBlog News twitter feed)

Guess for Eagle Ford production

I’ll start noting forecasts for Eagle Ford production when I see them.

RBN Energy has a report on the infrastructure that moves condensate from the wells to the refineries in their post – Knocking on Heaven’s Dorr – The Eagle Ford Crude Story Part III.

The lengthy post starts with this comment:

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Bakken oil output 2 million bopd by 2025?

That is the forecast by Bentek Energy LLC. I’ve been pointing out forecasts for Bakken production and this is the longest forecast I’ve seen.

The Dickinson Press picks up the AP report in their article Study: ND oil output may jump threefold by 2025.  The opening paragraph:

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Forecasts for Bakken field. Part 2

Previous post covered some of the info from a presentation by Mr. Lynn Helms, North Dakota’s Director of Mineral Resources, at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference on May 25, 2012. You can find the PDFs from the presentation here.

Here is some more info I enjoyed from the presentation.

Possible number of new wells in North Dakota

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Forecasts for Bakken field. Part 1

Wow. I tripped across the PDF slides for the presentation by Mr. Lynn Helms, North Dakota’s Director of Mineral Resources, at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference on May 25, 2012. You can find the presentation on this page. The title is WBPC Activity.

A big thank you to Mark J. Perry at Carpe Diem for pointing me to the PDF slide presentation.

Mr. Helms presentation is the source for many of the articles I’ve read and the resulting posts on this blog.

What is the very condensed message from the presentation?

The oil boom in North Dakota, which has seen production skyrocket to over 600,000 barrels per day, is just getting started.

Typical production from a well

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Looks like the amazing UT San Antonio report on Eagle Ford Shale is already obsolete, or did you know it is already 2017?

Discussed a superb report from UT San Antonio about the economic impact of the Eagle Ford Shale play here. That new field with very  new drilling is having a huge impact on the regional economy.

Update 10-13-12:  I have dramatically revised the analysis presented here. I don’t understand the amounts mentioned in the EIA report, particularly when compared to actual production data reported for July. In another post located here, I’ve revised my analysis to show that the July production is generally on track with the moderate scenario forecast.  Etiquette rules for blogging and the rules I follow on my blog call for leaving the original comments in place and noting corrections. (That means I don’t do the memory hole routine.) Instead of doing a massive rewrite of this post, I have another post for an update:  What’s the production level in Eagle Ford and how does it compare to some recent forecasts?

Update 2:  Just in case it isn’t obvious, I continue to be amazed at the Eagle Ford field.  It is a game changer nationally and internationally. You really ought to check out the research report.  It is superb.

The report has great analysis of the impact on jobs, payroll, and sales tax revenue in the region.  The authors have forecasts of production in 2021 and lots of data for the last few years. The report is  Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale. I’m neither an economist nor academician, so I can’t appreciate some of the details they have present, but they sure did ‘show their work’ as your high school algebra teacher would say, through footnotes and listing assumptions & formulas for their calculations.

As I wrote my previous post though, I realized something didn’t look right.

Here’s the fantastically wonderful problem.  Expected production in April 2012 for gas & condensate is at the level they forecasted for 2014.  Expected gas production is at the level projected in 2017.

Let me explain –

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