Excess deaths – More people are dying that expected based on historical average. Why?

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Reports are now surfacing there are far more people dying then we would expect now the pandemic is mostly behind us. This discussion will bring up merely two articles calling attention to this issue.

First article points out there are excess deaths after the pandemic has wound down. Second article points out there were excess deaths in California during the pandemic.

I suggest we need to look at government policies during the pandemic as the driving force behind the excess deaths.

Normally, one can look at the five-year average of deaths and make an estimate of the number of people who will die this year.  It is called “excess deaths” when the actual deaths are above the five-year average.

Three years after the start of the pandemic there are significant excess deaths in countries with believable statistics available.

9/2/22 – Next Big Future – Unknown Cause of 1 Million Excess Deaths per Year – Article from last September points out there are widespread excess deaths, even after allowing for Covid deaths.

Article says there were 18% excess deaths in the first two years of the pandemic. Now that the deaths from Covid have dropped, the overall death rate should be back to the historical average.

Yet that is not what is happening.

Author points out that England and Wales were showing 1000 excess deaths weekly in 14 of the previous 15 weeks. None of those are from Covid.

Excess deaths are running in the 10% up to 20% level around the world.

Excess death rates are 8% in the US and 20% in Brazil.

Should this continue, author estimates there would be an additional 1 million excess deaths in a year, without including whatever the numbers would be in China, India, the rest of Asia, and Africa.

These unsettling excess death rates are based on five-year average which includes Covid deaths in 2020 and 2021 which pushes up the five-year average. This means excess death rates are even higher when compared to the pre-pandemic timeframe.

Author is not able to identify any likely cause. For clarity, to show his befuddledness, and demonstrate his inability to think beyond the company line, I will quote his assessment which is:

“Possible mix of causes related to increased systemic increases in stress, systemic decline in lifestyle and diet or some hidden and some long post-Covid related issues.”

Gee, he can’t figure any possibilities but thinks some link to Covid is likely. Or people are just more stressed out. (Maybe from being locked down or losing their business?) Or perhaps people are overeating or not exercising? (After they were locked in their house and gyms were closed for well over a year?)

Completely missing from the article is any possibility that government dictats forcing isolation, increased loneliness, job loss, restricted medical access, denied medical access, intentionally inflamed fear, business closures, or supply chain disruption could have any possible impact on health and resulting death rates.

Yet the article still has tremendous value for pointing out there is a large number of people dying which would not be expected otherwise.

What, oh what, could possibly have caused 30,000 excess deaths in California, a 20% increase in the fatality rate?

1/30/23 – Inland Empire Daily Bulletin – California sun nearly 20% more deaths since 2020, and Covid alone can’t explain it – Hold in the back of your mind that many people, including your humble correspondent, have predicted since one or two months into the pandemic that government policies would be causing deaths. I have been predicting for a long time there will be a high “excess death” count from dictated policies.

Article explains there have been 130,000 more deaths in three years than would be expected. Covid claims 100,000 of those victims.

What is the cause of the other 30,000 deaths? The excess deaths?

That is the debate.

Article acknowledges there are two sides to the debate.

One side says Covid deaths have been undercounted. (Please don’t laugh, that suggestion is presented with a straight face even though if someone had their head crushed an automobile accident in 2020 or 2021 the fatality was counted as a Covid death if there was a positive test result in the previous 30 days).

Other possible factor cited is Covid causes circulatory complications which causes death in some indirect, unidentified manner.

Quite amazingly, the article acknowledges there are other possibilities.

Perhaps lockdowns directly are a link. Perhaps disruption of the “psycho-social fabric”, possibly a “epidemic of loneliness and isolation.”

Article also mentions delayed medical care is a possibility several times. Some doctors are seeing patients who avoided or delayed care now presenting with advanced symptoms. They were too scared to go to the doctor. Well, where did that fright come from? Maybe it was our public health officials and scaremongering media deliberately fanning fear.

Article also mentions drastic increase in drug deaths.

One doctor describes what is called “disease of despair.” That would include suicide, homicide, and overdoses. Trace that back – where did that despair come from?

Perhaps the despair driving the suicide or fatal overdose was from isolation?

Perhaps losing your business drives disease of despair?

Perhaps losing your job?

Perhaps not being allowed by government policy to see your doctor?

Perhaps not being allowed by government dictat to get a diagnostic test which would otherwise have provided early detection of a severe disease?

Perhaps not been allowed to go to your drug/alcohol support group?

Perhaps some other disruption in the “psycho-social fabric?”

Perhaps some other intentional government policy?

Article closes by saying this is a complex issue to pull apart. It is also unprecedented in modern times.

Perhaps, just perhaps, we need to take a serious look at the devastation caused by a host of government imposed requirements and the damage from readily foreseeable unintended consequences.

My prediction is it will take a decade to quantify the excess deaths and isolate those caused by government policies.

It will take a decade to quantify the devastation impact on educational development from intentional government policies.

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