What Peak Oil? – #35

Update: Some commenters on the ‘net did not agree with a graph that combines gas and oil. Fair point. I’ll redraw the graph to include only crude oil.

The new graph does not change any comment made in this post. It stands as is.

Peak oil is still a failed concept.

Here is the new graph:

Again, here is the main question: Where is the inverted V drop after the peak that mirrors the runup to the high point?

Answer: It isn’t there.

2nd Update: I appreciate folks pointing out the error of my ways. Further research produced the above graph which makes the point yet again. I also looked at natural gas production.

The fail of Dr. Hubbert’s theories is even more extremely illustrated by graphing natural gas production. Comparing actual to his predictions is staggering. Another post on Monday.

Two busted Hubbert theories from one post. Peak Gas is even more of a fail than Peak Oil.

3rd update: Further discussion of the Peak Oil graph on the following post.

Original post:

Saw a graph containing production of oil and gas in the U.S. since 1950. Since that one is copyrighted, decided to make my own.

Check out this graph of the amount of crude oil, natural gas (dry), and NGPL from 1949 through 2013:

Now, please look for the permanent, inevitable decline trending to zero after the never-to-be-achieved-again peak oil point of 1970. Also look for the inverted-V shaped drop after the peak that mirrors the runup.

Continue reading “What Peak Oil? – #35”

Shale oil revolution drives surge in domestic production – Peak oil #34

Brace yourself for this chart, used with permission from Carpe Diem: Energy chart of the day: America’s shale oil revolution will reverse a 40-year decline in crude oil output in just 5.5 years.

US energy production grew from around 1 million barrels of oil per day (1M bopd) in 1920 to a high point of 10.04M bopd in November 1970. A 40 year decline dropped production to around 5M or 5.5M bopd in 2010.

The shale boom has skyrocketed production to 8.3M bopd in April 2014. The EIA projects production will be pushing 10M bopd at the end of 2015.

Astounding.

What Peak Oil?

Continue reading “Shale oil revolution drives surge in domestic production – Peak oil #34”

The shale revolution. Or, what Peak Oil? #33

The change in oil production in the last few years is astounding. For perspective, look at the following two charts by Prof. Mark Perry, from his Carpe Diem blog. Both graphs used with permission:

Oil production in Texas:

From The remarkable rise of Texas crude oil: The state produced nearly one billion barrels last year, and 34.5% of all US crude. Just under a billion barrels. That’s around a third of US production.

Oil production in North Dakota took off in 2008: Continue reading “The shale revolution. Or, what Peak Oil? #33”

3 articles for background on fracking and oil

Several great reads on energy. Lots of info. Since they are long, you might want to get a fresh cup of coffee and settle in for some good learnin’.

NBC News – Meet Harold Hamm, the billionaire behind America’s ‘great renaissance of oil’

Superb background on Harold Hamm and Continental Resources. Mr. Hamm has a couple of fun quotes in the article. For example, some people say the oil industry is creating carbon pollution. He points out that all humans exhale carbon dioxide. Should we all quite breathing?
I think not.
How about enough oil for a hundred years? Check out this sentence: Continue reading “3 articles for background on fracking and oil”

A simple explanation why we will never run out of oil – Peak Oil #32

In one sentence: Some other energy source, perhaps fusion, will provide our energy needs before we actually use up all the oil.

That is my summary of the comments by Professor Bernard Weinstein in a presentation made in North Dakota, as summarized by The Dickinson Press: Energy expert: World will ‘never run out of oil’.

We simply do not know how much oil is recoverable. Check out these two comments: Continue reading “A simple explanation why we will never run out of oil – Peak Oil #32”

5 charts that show the dramatic impact of the energy revolution

Carpe Diem has some great graphs that show how much the energy world has changed in the last five years – Five charts that help put “Saudi America’s” shale revolution into perspective.

1 – Weekly US crude oil production ’89 to ’13

Continue reading “5 charts that show the dramatic impact of the energy revolution”

Another 600 million barrels of recoverable oil the experts didn’t know about a year ago – Peak Oil #31

Add a fresh discovery of up to 600,000,000 barrels of oil 300 miles off the Newfoundland coast to the list of oil that no one knew existed before it was found, evaluated, and an estimate made of recoverable oil.

One of a long list of fatal fallacies in Peak Oil doctrine is that no more oil will ever be discovered.

Continue reading “Another 600 million barrels of recoverable oil the experts didn’t know about a year ago – Peak Oil #31”

I’d be worried about Peak Oil if… (#30)

If exploration of the third shelf of Three Forks had been completed instead of just started,

if exploration of fourth shelf were done instead of *not* started,

if price increases didn’t make economically unrecoverable oil economically recoverable,

if new technology didn’t make technically unrecoverable oil technically recoverable,

Continue reading “I’d be worried about Peak Oil if… (#30)”

Maybe there is a Peak Oil issue after all. That would be Peak Oil Consumption, not Peak Oil Production

We may be hitting a peak in demand for oil. That’s the idea raised in The Economist two weeks ago – Yesterday’s Fuel.

Between a tremendous surge in natural gas production and car efficiencies, they perceive demand for oil may stabilize instead of continuing to grow.

Thus, we might finally have a real Peak Oil issue: Continue reading “Maybe there is a Peak Oil issue after all. That would be Peak Oil Consumption, not Peak Oil Production”

New tech is changing undersea drilling too – peak oil #27

Amazing technology developments are making drilling in the ocean easier, reducing cost, and revealing the locations of hard-to-find oil.

Six Tech Advancements Changing the Fossil Fuels Game at Rigzone outlines the changes.

I like this sentence that points out what everyone knows (specifically that a particular well or field only so much oil and will eventually run dry) with what the peak oilers refuse to believe (that there is another field to drill which is now reachable with new technology):

Rig advancements are coming online in tandem with the significantly increased momentum to drill in deeper waters as shallower reserves run out.

Oh, and advancement in technology is just one of several fatal flaws to the “peak oil” foolishness.

Here’s some of the new tech. One of the 6 applies to drilling on land – at least I think it doesn’t apply to deep-sea drilling.

Continue reading “New tech is changing undersea drilling too – peak oil #27”

Record increase in U.S. oil production. Lots of shale oil and gas around the world. Explain Peak Oil to me again please. #25

Because of fracking and horizontal drilling, the one year increase in U.S. oil production in 2012 was the largest increase in our history. The bounties from shale could spread to other countries.

U.S. production increase

The Wall Street Journal reports in their article U.S. Oil Notches Record Growth on data released by BP:

In the latest sign of the shale revolution remaking world energy markets, crude production in the U.S. jumped 14% last year to 8.9 million barrels a day,

Continue reading “Record increase in U.S. oil production. Lots of shale oil and gas around the world. Explain Peak Oil to me again please. #25”

Another Bakken’s worth of oil discovered. And it’s underneath the current Bakken. Oh, and what Peak Oil?

The USGS updated their estimate of the amount of oil that is undiscovered, technically recoverable in the Bakken field. Second paragraph of their press release says:

The USGS assessment found that the Bakken Formation has an estimated mean oil resource of 3.65 BBO and the Three Forks Formation has an estimated mean resource of 3.73 BBO, for a total of 7.38 BBO, with a range of 4.42 (95 percent chance) to 11.43 BBO (5 percent chance). This assessment of both formations represents a significant increase over the estimated mean resource of 3.65 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Bakken Formation that was estimated in the 2008 assessment.

This means the mid-point (statistically correct phrase: mean) of the total oil that is technically recoverable with current technology is 7.4 billion barrels of oil. Their assessment is that the probability is 95% that there will be at least 4.4B and the probability is 5% that there could be as much as 11.4B.

Continue reading “Another Bakken’s worth of oil discovered. And it’s underneath the current Bakken. Oh, and what Peak Oil?”

Peak Oil = Flat Earth? – #23

Has the Peak Oil concept, which is the idea we can calculate the day that oil production irreversibly starts a catastrophic drop and calculate the specific year we use the last drop of oil, finally gone the way of the Flat Earth Society?

The answer is yes. At least that is the suggestion from an article by Mr. Colin Sullivan at EnergyWire: Has ‘peak oil’ gone the way of the Flat Earth Society?

The article starts with a graph from the 1950s showing a bell curve of all the oil production from 1850 through 2200 (yes, that would be 240 years out). The cumulative production to the c.1950s is exactly 90×10^9, or 90B. Proven reserves are 250B barrels. All future discoveries, under a smooth bell curve peaking at 2000 are 910B barrels. Total oil on the planet ever to be produced is precisely 1,250B barrels, give or take a rounding error.

Only problem with the entire concept? It’s wrong. Why? Continue reading “Peak Oil = Flat Earth? – #23”

Yet another analysis why the Peak Oil concept is dead – #22

An investment manager, The Boston Company, has a paper out which explains from an investment perspective why Peak Oil is dead. The paper starts with an explanation of the concept:

For decades, pundits have been trying to predict a tipping point for Peak Oil – when a sustained and unabated climb in oil prices sparks a near-collapse of the global economy. According to Peak Oil theory, the rate of petroleum extraction will crest and then begin an immutable decline, pushing oil prices ever higher as demand for this finite resource permanently exceeds supply.

You can find End of an Era: The Death of Peak Oil at their website.

They cite several causes for the passing of the late Peak Oil.

Continue reading “Yet another analysis why the Peak Oil concept is dead – #22”

Inconvenient production data – Peak Oil #21

Vaclav Smil has an article at The American, “Memories of Peak Oil” that looks at oil production data over the course of a decade.

He pulls data from BP’s annual energy report. Great stuff there.

These are some highlights he points out for production between 2001 and 2011: Continue reading “Inconvenient production data – Peak Oil #21”