We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
I started a discussion of the silly concept of ‘peak oil’ here.
That is the concept that we will soon hit a peak of oil production at which point production will fall. Furthermore, we will run out of oil very soon.
I’ve started off with a recap of a superb article by Daniel Yergin in a Wall Street Journal article There Will Be Oil.
Where did this idea come from?
Continue reading “Where did this peak oil concept come from? Peak oil #2”
I’ve come across a term that struck me as silly as soon as I read it – peak oil – That’s the idea that we’ve hit the maximum production and we will soon see production levels fall and then run out of oil.
The definition of proven reserves and a minimal knowledge of supply and demand makes it so obvious that we will never run out of oil. A glance at this blog or the blogs I cite should make the concept of peak oil laughable.
I need to explain this across several posts.
The whole concept of peak oil becomes more astoundingly ignorant with every additional paragraph I read on the issue. Conceptually, there is a big problem. Practially, developments in the last couple of years should kill off the concept permanently. Continue reading “We will never run out of oil. Peak oil #1”
One of the main computers I use in my business failed Sunday night. For various reasons, I’ve held off on making several major upgrades, like jumping to Windows 7 and Office 2010.
So I shopped for new computer, have it in place, and as of yesterday have almost all the software running. Still have a couple of things to bring online, but they can wait for the moment.
Making the jump to a host of new technology tools all at once highlights the volume of change surrounding us.
Continue reading “Nothing like a computer failure to show how much change is going on”
The boom in oil is creating a boom in mining sand.
The Wall Street Journal reports in Midwest Sees a Sand Rush that the huge amount of oil and gas exploration is creating a boom time in pulling sand out of the ground. Continue reading “Sand boom from oil boom – and some of the economics of fracking”
North Dakota Oil is an introduction to the amazing oil boom in the Bakken field. The Bakken spreads across North Dakota, Montana, and Saskatchewan and is the source of the economic boom in western North Dakota.
The report is a 21 page overview of the Bakken field, oil drilling in general, fracking in particular, and the astounding opportunities for jobs and oil production. It was produced by Oppidan.
Continue reading “Introduction to the Bakken field, drilling in general, and the economic impact”
The astounding news just keeps on rolling in. Here is another name to remember for energy issues – Green River.
Testimony to Congress this week from OMB’s Anu K. Mittal, Director, Natural Resources and Environment, indicates there are tremendous opportunities and challenges from oil shale underneath western Colorado and eastern Utah.
The written testimony is in UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION – Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Shale Development
The Green River Formation has an astounding amount of oil shale. From the report’s summary:
Tapping the vast amounts of oil locked within U.S. oil shale formations could go a long way toward satisfying the nation’s future oil demands. Oil shale deposits in the Green River Formation are estimated to contain up to 3 trillion barrels of oil, half of which may be recoverable, which is about equal to the entire world’s proven oil reserves.
Count of oil field drilling rigs week of May 11 – 209 & 282.
Continue reading “Rig count in Bakken and Eagle Ford fields – 5-11-12”
I haven’t mentioned the efforts from the University of Texas system to create an option to get a college degree with a price point of $10,000. Looks like they are making progress.
From Carpe Diem: Markets in Everything: College Degree for < $10k. Continue reading “$10,000 for a college degree? What a silly idea! Oops. It’s here.”
Discussed a superb report from UT San Antonio about the economic impact of the Eagle Ford Shale play here. That new field with very new drilling is having a huge impact on the regional economy.
Update 10-13-12: I have dramatically revised the analysis presented here. I don’t understand the amounts mentioned in the EIA report, particularly when compared to actual production data reported for July. In another post located here, I’ve revised my analysis to show that the July production is generally on track with the moderate scenario forecast. Etiquette rules for blogging and the rules I follow on my blog call for leaving the original comments in place and noting corrections. (That means I don’t do the memory hole routine.) Instead of doing a massive rewrite of this post, I have another post for an update: What’s the production level in Eagle Ford and how does it compare to some recent forecasts?
Update 2: Just in case it isn’t obvious, I continue to be amazed at the Eagle Ford field. It is a game changer nationally and internationally. You really ought to check out the research report. It is superb.
The report has great analysis of the impact on jobs, payroll, and sales tax revenue in the region. The authors have forecasts of production in 2021 and lots of data for the last few years. The report is Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale. I’m neither an economist nor academician, so I can’t appreciate some of the details they have present, but they sure did ‘show their work’ as your high school algebra teacher would say, through footnotes and listing assumptions & formulas for their calculations.
As I wrote my previous post though, I realized something didn’t look right.
Here’s the fantastically wonderful problem. Expected production in April 2012 for gas & condensate is at the level they forecasted for 2014. Expected gas production is at the level projected in 2017.
Let me explain –
The University of Texas at San Antonio released a report describing the Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale.
The study describes the same boom-time problems in the Eagle Ford field as exist in the Bakken area – restaurants struggling to hire enough staff to stay open, hotels fully booked, RV parks going up everywhere, and a crush of school children arriving for classes whose parents are living in an RV & not paying property taxes to fund the schools.
The report describes in detail that production increased dramatically from 2010 to 2011. It makes projections for 10 years out. Continue reading “Eagle Ford shale field production – economic impact report”
I’ve mentioned the potential to see huge increase in oil and gas production in the U.S. in several posts. Start looking here, here, and here.
It’s not just the U.S. that could see huge increases in production. Check out these articles, courtesy of Carpe Diem:
Reuters: Exclusive: UK has vast shale gas reserves, geologists say
New technology from the U.S. (that means fracking) could make large volumes of shale gas off the coast of UK economically viable, pushing England to the top of reserves worldwide.
Here’s the potential: Continue reading “Energy boom isn’t limited to the U.S.”
Waste upsets me.
A speaker at the 2012 Chick-fil-A LeaderCast led me to write this post.
Consider:
The Williston Herald reports that Average Wage in Williams County nearly $71,000 a year.
In 1¾ years through September ‘11, there were 12,000 new jobs in the city.
Wages? Check this out: Continue reading “Oil boom equals high pay for lots of jobs”
Fantastic primer on energy in the U.S. and world:
Hard Facts – An Energy Primer from the Institute for Energy Research.
I’ve just started reading it. Superb stuff. The first few tidbits that jump out at me:
Estimates that there is more recoverable oil in the U.S. than in Saudi Arabia:
The United States is home to the richest oil shale deposits in the world—estimates are there are about 1 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in U.S. oil shale deposits, nearly four times that of Saudi Arabia’s proved oil reserves.5
Vastly improved energy efficiency in the U.S. even with expansion in the per capita GDP:
• Energy use per person in the United States fell 12 percent between 1979 and 2010 from 359 million BTUs to 317 million BTUs per person.19
• Energy intensity—energy consumption per dollar of GDP—fell by 52 percent between 1973 and 2011.20
Are we running out of oil and gas we know about and can get to at economical price?
Count The Economist as skeptical on the plans Planetary Resources has to mine asteroids as one step in their privately funded space exploration efforts.
In their article, Going platinum, they survey some of the hurdles.