Is interest in Facebook fading?
I’ve seen some indicators that Facebook may be peaking. A few random indicators:
Rich Karlgaard, publisher of Forbes had several comments about the Facebook IPO in his article 7 Reasons Why Facebook IPO Was a Bust:
Valuation of Facebook has been at the $100B level for a year. Zero percent growth in value over a year is not a good sign:
1. Too late. Facebook‘s shares have been dead in the water for the last 12 months. Private investors had already bid up Facebook to a $100 billion value a year ago.
The worst item, in terms of prospects for more growth, are weariness with the product. Mr. Karlgaard’s comment:
5. Facebook boredom, particularly among professionals. The company says it is zeroing in on a billion members. Good for Facebook, but what I would like to know is how many Facebook users have grown bored. I have not visited my Facebook page in two months. Almost every professional person I talk to who is over 25 years old has grown bored with Facebook.
Then there is a slight decline in the coolness factor for younger teens, at least according to an article by Jessica Guynn and Ryan Faughnder in the LA Times – Some teens aren’t liking Facebook as much as older users.
The authors have sensed a number of newly 13 year olds aren’t as interested in Facebook as their older siblings.
A few reasons seem to be anonymity available elsewhere, the lack of parent’s ability to look over their shoulder outside Facebook, and other applications that are more useable on smart phones.
Check out the dawning perception of the risks of too much sharing on Facebook:
Teens embracing new services say they’d rather use aliases than their real names. They’re just not that into the idea of having everyone see all of their random thoughts. And they also worry that one wrong move on Facebook could hurt their chances of getting into college or landing a job.
Too much sharing isn’t just a problem for jobs or college admissions. Consider this comment from a person self identified as “Stephanie”:
I must admit though that FB has lost its appeal for me. I’m 26 though so I don’t know if that determines anything. … I also felt like through my early 20s that FB caused a bunch of unneeded drama in my life.
Too much drama.
I was at a social function recently. The opinion of all who spoke up was concern over the danger of oversharing and the significant risk of being accidentally or intentionally misunderstood.
In general, TMI.
I’m not smart enough to see a trend until others have long since explained the trend to me. Things can change fast in the social media world.