Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Expect to see continuing rise is U.S. oil production – EIA forecast for ’13 and ’14

The Energy Information Administration has a prediction for oil production over the next two years:

EIA estimates U.S. total crude oil production averaged 6.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d from the previous year. Projected domestic crude oil production continues to increase to 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 7.9 million bbl/d in 2014, which would mark the highest annual average level of production since 1988.

Here’s what that looks like in a table:

year Mbopd chg percent
2011 5.6
2012 6.4 0.8 14.3%
2013 7.3 0.9 14.1%
2014 7.9 0.6 8.2%

Check out Carpe Diem to see what that looks like in a graph with comparison to production since 1985:  In just a six-year period from 2008-2014, fracking will completely reverse a 22-year, 41% decline in US oil output.

From eyeballing the graph, it looks like production will increase from a low of just over 5.0Mbopd in 2009 (ignoring a brief, downward spike) to around 8.5Mbopd at the end of 2014.  That would be something in the range of a 3.5Mbopd increase, or an increase of around 70%.

Very cool.

Peak oil?

Prof. Perry’s conclusion:

Considering that oil output has increased by 52% in North Dakota over the last year, and by 32% in Texas, the Department of Energy’s forecast of a 14% increase this year in domestic oil output might be rather conservative. And I’m not sure that the Department of Energy is incorporating recent developments in West Texas oil in its forecasts, but that’s where we might see the next surge in domestic shale oil and gas production. In fact, the shale possibilities in West Texas are so promising that some are predicting it will be the “Eagle Ford Shale on steroids.” Peak what?

“Peak what?” indeed.

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