Eagle Ford crude production likely passing the 400k bopd point in November ’12

I’m having difficulty tracking production levels in Eagle Ford. Haven’t figured out how to read the Texas Railroad Commission’s data (they regulate oil drilling in addition to the rails). Caught on to the North Dakota data a while ago, but that is easier since about 91% of the state’s oil production is from the Bakken field.

One thing I’ve learned is the data comes in slow. Thus it is revised a few times over the next several months after the first data is released.  This is a good thing – the regulators release data as they get it. 

The N.D. regulators also revise data but I’ve noticed there are rather small changes and usually all of that is in the one month after initial release. Following months seem to have very minor changes.

Eagle Ford Shale has the news I watch. Am using info they provide to build a spreadsheet to start sorting out production.  What is already clear is a strong growth curve and there are lots of reports that take a while to arrive.

The news on 1-24-13 is great: Eagle Ford Oil Production Surpasses 400,000 b/d – Up Almost 100%.

Mr. Dukes says the November reported production is about 358K bopd. Typical revisions are an increase of about 50K bopd, so that suggests to him the November production of crude will be around 405K bopd or 410k 

A report from Fuel Fix says Eagle Ford November crude output rises 70% from a year earlier.

70%? 100?

How to put those two pieces of data together?

Easy.

Fuel Fix is referring to the first-reported data for November 2012 compared to the final revised data for November 2011. An increase from 211,333 bopd (11-11) to 358,826 bopd (11-12) is 69.7%. That rounds off nicely to 70%.

It is easy to follow the calculations of Eagle Ford Shale.  The post takes the initial report for 11-12, adds 50,000 which is a rough average of the revisions from initial to final reports, rounds to a bracket of nearest 5k, then rounds the percent increase since it is a very rough estimate. Thus, 358k bopd plus 50k is 408k. Round off to 405k to 410k. Calculate an increase which is 92% and 94%. Round that to 100%. That gives his estimate of what the final reports will show for November.

So, 70% increase for first report, an estimated 100% increase when all reports are in.

Cool.

All those amounts exclude condensate and NGL.

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