Carpe Diem quotes the current issue of “The Gartman Letter” in a post, Quotation of the day on ‘peak lunacy.’ The newsletter is subscription only and I’m sure it’s far beyond my price range, so I have to quote the quote.
Mr. Gartman recalls his undergrad days when the Malthusians said the world would be out of crude oil by 1984. He calls this “sheer lunacy.”
Since it is now 2013 and I’m still driving a car powered by gasoline, I think we can call that a failed forecast.
What is Peak Oil?
Let’s pause for moment and remember what “peak oil” means. As has been advocated since Dr. Hubbert produced his world-famous theory in 1949 , peak oil means we will soon hit a maximum point of oil production, then see a rapid drop-off (the forecast looks like a bell curve), to be followed shortly thereafter by a complete exhaustion of all oil on the planet with said exhaustion point subject to calculation with reasonable accuracy.
Not a decades-long, gently declining slope. Not hitting a point at which production will never again surpass. Not that it will eventually become uneconomical to use oil. Not that energy will get more expensive. Not that it will get more difficult to get oil out of the ground.
The point, for over sixty years, is that we will exhaust every drop of oil on the planet in the near future. And we can calculate the date.
Think I’m making that up? Exaggerating? Putting words in the mouth of the Peak Oilers? Please, please read what Dr. Hubbert and his followers actually say.
“You’ve been wrong long enough”
Mr. Gartman points out that ExxonMobil increased its proven reserves last year. The reserves didn’t decline. Didn’t stay the same. Their reserves increased.
At the same time as ExxonMobil pulled an incredible amount of oil out of the ground, they increased their reserves by a larger amount. They increased the proven reserves that they own by 115% of production.
By the way, Mr. Gartman points out this is the 19th consecutive year they’ve added to reserves.
Increased reserves. 19 years. In a row.
Carpe Diem ends their quote with this:
Thus, to the eco-radicals and to the Peak Oil enthusiasts we say: Sit down and shut up; you’ve been wrong long enough.
We will need to continue pointing out the folly of Peak Oil as long as its advocates continue to make the failed argument. Comments at Carpe Diem show the idea is alive and well as of this morning. I’ve even started getting those comments on my blog.