Production state-wide hit 810,314 bopd in May, up 2.07% from revised April amount of 793,913 bopd.
Here’s a graph:
Six month increase
That is an increase of only 8.1% over six months, which was the last month before the winter impacts hit.
I say “only” because the 6 month change in production in 5-12 was 31.8%, in 5-11 it was 5.8%, and in 5-10 it was 24.6%. Only in North Dakota and only in the realm of oil production would a six month increase of 8% be not that impressive.
Look at the drilling time from the July Directors’ Cut:
The average number of days to drill a well from spud to total depth is at just under 22, but the average number of days from total depth to initial production has increased to 92.
I think the reason the completion time is so high can be found here:
We estimate that at the end of May there were about 500 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 10.
That is up from 410 wells awaiting completion in January 2013 and far higher 339 a year earlier in May 2012.
Here’s a reason the rate of increase is below the increases of about 5% during May in the prior two years.
Load restrictions have remained in place longer than ever before because May 2013 was the wettest on record.
My predictions of a million bopd
In June 2012 I put my prediction on the table for when North Dakota oil production would hit one million barrels a day: September 2013.
I’ve also made note of other predictions.
Since the September data is only 4 reports in the future, my estimate is looking less and less likely to be correct. Instead of changing my forecast, I’ll let it ride.