The race is on – when will Eagle Ford and Bakken hit a million barrels a day?

I’ve been tracking predictions for when Bakken hits a million barrels a day. Both Carpe Diem and Million Dollar Way put a prediction on the table today.

Check out the astounding increase in production in Eagle Ford shown in the graph from Carpe Diem: Energy fact of the day: Eagle Ford Shale sets new oil output record in May, will likely surpass Bakken Shale next year.

Production in May was 581,923 bopd, per the preliminary report.

The post points out what Eagle Ford Shale mentioned earlier this week, specifically that the preliminary reports are usually increased in the range of 30K to 50K bopd when the final numbers are out. See Eagle Ford Oil Output Surpasses 600,000 b/d in May. My notes show the January 2013 data increased 90k bopd from the preliminary to first revision.

Predictions when Bakken hits 1M BOPD:

Carpe Diem – 2nd half of 2014 – 7-25-13

Million Dollar Way – 1st half of 2014, possibly as early as 12-13 or 1-14 – 7-25-13

Outrun Change – September 2013 for all N.D. production (non-Bakken is usually about 65K bopd). – 6-8-12 – My estimate is looking quite optimistic, what with only 4 more months until we see the September data. I’ll wait for that to be completely busted before I make a new estimate. In my own weak defense, remember that estimate was 13 months ago.

Eagle Ford hits 1M BOPD

Carpe Diem – 2nd half of 2014 – 7-25-13 – will happen before Bakken (same link as above)

Which field will get there first?

I am enjoying this race.  This isn’t a win/lose deal. For Bakken, Eagle Ford, consumers, and the U.S. economy, this is a win/win/win/win.

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