Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Eagle Ford output passes 600K bopd in June – another prediction for 1M bopd in Bakken and Eagle Ford

Carpe Diem summarizes great news that “Eagle Ford June oil output increased 60% from a year ago to a new record high; will likely surpass Bakken next summer.”

Initial report shows production in Eagle Ford was about 621,000 barrels a day during June.

I haven’t figured out how to either track or understand the reports on Eagle Ford oil. The initial data is revised higher as additional companies report their data. For example, from my notes the initial reports rise anywhere from 26k bopd (9-12) up to 90k bopd (1-13) when all the data is in. That means that final tally for June is likely to be anywhere from 650k to near 700k.

The production race, million barrel prediction

The Carpe Diem post has some predictions of when production will pass the million barrels a day level in both Bakken and Eagle Ford. After noting the rate of increase is running higher in Eagle Ford than Bakken, Prof. Perry predicts both fields will pass the 1M level in the second half of 2014. The specific points:

As of right now, given the phenomenal increases in Eagle Ford oil output, I’m predicting that the Eagle Ford Shale will get to that important milestone of one million bpd first sometime around next June, followed shortly after by one million bpd of oil output in the Bakken by next July or August.

As usual, comments at the post include the now-expected production-will-peak-this-afternoon crowd.

Commenter “butasha” suggests the Eagle Ford is at the place Bakken was quite a few months ago with drillers pushing to get lease-holding wells in place. After that is done, the drillers will transition to pad drilling to infill the field. We could see 5 or 6 wells everyplace there is currently one.

Unlike an athletic contest where there is a first, second, and third place, oil production is not a zero sum game. I am not concerned about whether Bakken or Eagle Ford or Permian is ‘ahead’. I am thrilled they are all seeing phenomenal production increases. Having said that…

Go Bakken! Go Eagle Ford! Go Permian!

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