Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Eagle Ford production passes the 1M bopd level in October?

The Energy Information Administration released a report about 2 weeks ago reporting their estimates of what production will be in 6 major fields for October and November.

I say estimates because they have an amount listed for Bakken in October and November. The latest data from the NDIC is actual results for August. Their Explanatory notes and sources indicates they use the rig count of two months ago and trends in production per well to calculate an estimate for current months.

Here is the data I can accumulate for Bakken:

  • 876K bopd – actual July NDIC
  • 911K bopd – actual August per NDIC
  • 935K bopd – estimate October per EIA
  • 961K bopd – estimate November per EIA

Based on my very simplistic understanding of the field and how things work there, those amounts for October and November seem low. 

Latest data I’ve seen for Eagle Ford was the first report for July at 621K bopd. The revisions in Eagle Ford are typically very large.

EIA projects this for Eagle Ford:

  • 1,069K bopd in October
  • 1,093K bopd in November

Looking forward to seeing actuals for October and November.

Others have been commenting on the EIA report. I just now took the time to browse the report.  I’ve been scratching my head with the idea of making a calculation of November production while in the middle of October.

Update:  Figured out why I’m confused. The EIA estimate includes condensates. More explanation here.

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