Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

9-13 North Dakota oil production 932K bopd – I missed my guess to hit one million barrels by September

September production was 932,174 barrels a day. That is a 2.3% increase for the month.

I missed my prediction

On June 8, 2012, I put my prediction on the table that ND production would hit 1M bopd by September 2013. That was based on 575k bopd in March 2012, so it is a guess for 18 months out.

Well, 932K is not 1M, so I missed. Only by 7% or about 2 months, but that’s a miss.

In a month or three when production does hit that level, I’ll accumulate the estimates gathered over the last year to see where they stack up.

The Directors report indicates an increase in pad drilling.

Small monthly revisions

Something I noticed this month is the really small revisions from subsequent reports. Here’s the data for the last few months as I’ve tracked it:

  • Initial      1st rev      2nd rev = production month
  • 821,531   822,108   823,363 = jun (not sure if the 823 was Sept or Aug rev)
  • 874,681   875,962   874,208 = jul
  • 911,496   911,450 = aug
  • 932,174 = sept

Unlike Eagle Ford, those are reeeeeally small revisions.

(Video above by James Ulvog.)

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