Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Full development of Bakken to involve ten times the wells now in place. Will take another 20 years.

Wow. Ten times more drilling than has already happened.  Speaking to the state legislature, Mr. Lynn Helms, who is the director of the Department of Mineral Resources, said

…the western part of the state had 6,447 wells in the oil-rich Bakken and Three Forks formations. Fully developing the formations will require drilling another 60,000 wells over the next 20 years …

For each of the wells that has already been drilled, there will be ten more. To do all that drilling will take another 20 years.

The production level won’t go up proportionately, because of the drastic decline rate. His expectation is the production level will go up for a few more years and then slowly decline.

My guess is the next 60,000 wells drilled will be far more efficient with the development effort at a less frantic pace than the last several years.

The report in the Dickinson Press say Top Regulator says 90 percent of ND oil could move by rail next year.

Forecasts are for the state to collect $5.28 billion in oil taxes during the next two-year state budget cycle. That’s about $2.6 billion a year.

For a state with population in 2012 of 699,628, that is somewhere around $3,700 per capita, just from oil. That is a big deal. Even in California (hint to our legislators and regulators), $2.6B a year is real money.

My suggesting a hint to our state leadership is based on there likely being more oil in the Monterrey Formation than in Bakken.

Update: Million Dollar Way pointed out there are about 2,000 wells being completed per year. Another 60,000 will take about another 30 years to drill. Very cool.

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