Short-term and long-term predictions for North Dakota oil production
Production will likely increase 5% or 6% a month for June, July, and August of 2014.
That is the expectation of Lynn Helms, director of N.D. Department of Mineral Resources, in a conference call reported by Bloomberg: North Dakota Expects “Big Surge” in Summer Crude Output.
I’ll turn that into a specific number by combining that with 2% or 2.5% growth through November. Will use that cutoff instead of December, since weather could get bad in either January or December.
Starting point is 1,039,635 bopd in May.
Here’s a range of guesses for November 2014:
- 1.28M bopd – assuming 5% for 3 months and 2% for 3 months
- 1.33M bopd – assuming 6% for 3 months and 2.5% for 3 months
Essentially that is an increase of one-fourth or one-third. Amazing.
I previously guessed a 2% or 2.5% monthly increase which would put November production at between 1.17m bopd and 1.21m bopd.
The article cites the CEO of Global Partners, a midstream company, as estimating the Bakken production will increase to the 2 million bopd level. Article doesn’t say what timeframe that would be.
A few more tidbits.
Article says shipping oil to east coast refineries by rail costs between $9 and $10 a barrel. Shipping to Washington plants costs between $6 and $7 per barrel.