Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Short-term and long-term predictions for North Dakota oil production

Production will likely increase 5% or 6% a month for June, July, and August of 2014.

That is the expectation of Lynn Helms, director of N.D. Department of Mineral Resources, in a conference call reported by Bloomberg: North Dakota Expects “Big Surge” in Summer Crude Output.

I’ll turn that into a specific number by combining that with 2% or 2.5% growth through November. Will use that cutoff instead of December, since weather could get bad in either January or December.

Starting point is 1,039,635 bopd in May.

Here’s a range of guesses for November 2014:

  • 1.28M bopd – assuming 5% for 3 months and 2% for 3 months
  • 1.33M bopd – assuming 6% for 3 months and 2.5% for 3 months

Essentially that is an increase of one-fourth or one-third. Amazing.

I previously guessed a 2% or 2.5% monthly increase which would put November production at between 1.17m bopd and  1.21m bopd.

Long-term prediction

The article cites the CEO of Global Partners, a midstream company, as estimating the Bakken production will increase to the 2 million bopd level. Article doesn’t say what timeframe that would be.

Shipping costs

A few more tidbits.

Article says shipping oil to east coast refineries by rail costs between $9 and $10 a barrel.  Shipping to Washington plants costs between $6 and $7 per barrel.

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