Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

More good stuff on the Bakken – 7/24

Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post: production levels, a forecast for slowing acceleration of output, employement, infrastructure, and  few other things.

Production level

7/16 – North Dakota oil production passes 1,039,000 BOPD in 5/14

5/30 – Million Dollar Way – That She Is! A Million-Bbl Bakken Well In This Boom – One well has finally crossed the point of producing 1,000,000 barrels of oil. It has been on-line for about 3.5 years. Let’s assume $90/barrel. That would be $90,000,000 gross, or about $26M per year. Still producing 24,000 bbl a month, which at $86 is about $2,000,000 each month. Not even on a pump yet. Initial production was an okay 803 barrels a day. Not great. Not bad. By 12/14, it will have produced $100M of oil.

5/30 – Bakken Shale – Is the Bakken America’s Last Boom?A cautionary, more sobering outlook – EOG CEO doesn’t see another huge field like Bakken and Eagle Ford on the horizon. He also sees the rate of growth slowing. That doesn’t mean drop. That means the increase next year won’t be as big as this with the following year up but not as much as next year. His read:

Increases in production: ’12 up 1,000K bopd / ’13 up 800K bopd / ’14 up 750K bopd / ’16 650K bopd. Point well taken. Geometric growth curves don’t last. On the other hand, that ‘pessimistic’ analysis would only reflect a growth of daily oil production of around 3.9 million barrels in five years. That is still extremely cool.

Employment

5/27 – Dickinson Press – Jobs up in North Dakota: 22,000 added in April; about 5 percent growth from last year – This is what an economic recovery looks like: Employment in N.D. during April increased 5.1% over prior year. Check out the graph. Looks like employment was up slightly from 4/04 to 4/09. Since 4/09, reported employment in the state has increased from about 370,000 to about 460,000. That’s around 90K or 100k, roughly in the range of 25%.

6/9 – Carpe Diem – A report from the Bakken oil fields, where the jobless rate is 0.9% and Walmart is paying 2.4 times the minimum wage – Prof Perry is visiting Williston. He shows a picture he took of the Wal-Mart help wanted posted inside the store. They are paying $17.40 an hour for cashiers, unloaders, and most other positions. For tire & lube techs, they are offering $19.90 an hour. Those are entry-level wages, by the way.  Enjoy the visit!

6/19 – Dickinson Press – Killdeer police chief resigns for oilfield job – Sometimes it is the little things that tell a big story. Killdeer is a small town, under 1,000 in population that is 35 miles north of Dickinson and 101 miles from Williston by road. The Police Chief resigned to take a safety position with one of the oilfield company. Doesn’t take much of a stretch to imagine that there are tons of jobs in the oil patch that will pay better than a top position in a small town. That is the kind of pressure all employers are under in western North Dakota.

Infrastructure

7/15 – Million Dollar Way – Home Depot, Menards — Williston, North Dakota Update – Home Depot is opening a satellite store. Early in 2015 they will decide whether to open a full-size store based on sales volume. Menards will break ground next week on a full-sized store in Williston. That is a lot of shopping space. For those of us who don’t live in the Midwest, Menards is comparable to Home Depot and Lowe’s.

7/14 – Grand Forks Herald – ‘Baby boom’ marks latest boom in northwest N.D. – A baby boom is following the oil boom.  Mercy Medical in Williston delivered 200 to 300 babies a decade ago. They expect 100 in November. Next year they may see 1200 deliveries.

Other stuff

6/6 – Bakken Shale Blog – NDIC Implements New Bakken Flaring Rule – June 1, 2014 – Starting the first of the month the North Dakota regulators will require a plan for capturing the gas for each drilling permit. The gas has to be captured in a year or the well gets capped.

7/19 – Dickinson Press – The Bakken brand: Oil Patch-named products taking off – T-shirts, coffee, candy bars. Branded products declaring Bakken are being quite popular. Cool. I got a Bakken sweatshirt for a Christmas present.

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3 thoughts on “More good stuff on the Bakken – 7/24

  1. Is the Menards really out to bid with groundbreaking to occur shortly? I was in the area two days ago on July 24 and did not see any activity on site. Any information confirming their intent to break ground in 2014 would be very helpful. Thanks.

    • Peter – I don’t know how to read the Dodge report on the bidding. Can’t see the documents since I’m not a subscriber.

      The article quoted by Million Dollar Way (linked above and posted 7/15) says bid letting was July 11th and groundbreaking was scheduled for 7/21. Groundbreaking is a ceremonial thing, thus there likely wouldn’t be anything visible on the 24th. That exhausts what I know.

      Don’t know if that helps.

      Your info is more current than what I know and you are nearby. Enjoy the new shopping when the construction’s done!

      Jim

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