Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

About those dropping oil prices – #11

Here’s the rest of the energy articles I’ve been wanting to catch up on. Have a few articles discussing the price war that will be posted next week.

1/6 – Shale Plays Media at Bakken.Com – “The American Moment”: API president delivers the 2015 State of American Energy – API calls today

… “The American Moment” where the current state of abundance and global leadership is something no one would have predicted just a few years ago.  “This unique American moment is the result primarily of American ingenuity and technological advancements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling.” He noted that the United States is expected to soon become the number one producer in oil production, and some believe we already are.

The lights are not about to go out and we aren’t out of either oil or natural gas:

Proven reserves of crude oil and light condensate in United States are at a 40-year high with many thanks to the massive oil production from the country’s shale fields. The United States has surpassed its competitors to become the top natural-gas producing country in the world …

API calls for ending the ban on exporting crude. The problem? That mindset

… is the 20th century scarcity ideology, not 21st century prosperity.

1/18 – Say Anything Blog – The Oil Boom is Over: Lobbyists Flee North Dakota – Article cites several factors pointing toward the rapid growth phase being over. Number of bills introduction to the legislature is down. The number of lobbyists in the state capital during this session is down to around 400 instead of the previous 600.

Best concept I think:

The days of the exponential growth are over.

Not a bust, just not out-of-control-expansion.

1/20 – Dickinson Press – Halliburton, Baker Hughes to lay off thousands as oil slumps – Halliburton will lay off 7K of its 80K workers worldwide.

Rig count in the US has dropped by 250 in the last 60 days. That is cited as a 15% drop, meaning count was about 1700 and is around 1,450.

1/22 – Shale Plays Media at Bakken.Com – How does the current oil price plummet rank? – Check out the superb graph. It shows 14 slumps in the mont-end price of Brent from 1988 through now. Total drop ranged from 13% to 67% with current price showing a 49% drop. The current duration of the drop is visually about the same as two others. Three other drops have lasted longer.

1/18 – Million Dollar Way – Something to Think About: Re-Fracking and the Current Slump in the Price of Oil – Early test runs suggest that re-fracking a natural gas site restores production to the initial level and may even increase over that IP. If so, re-fracking would be a good way to essentially get a new well’s production, for half or less of the cost of a new well.  Mr. Oksol guesses there may be 3,000 wells in Bakken that would be good prospect for a re-frack.

As usual, the best insight on future developments is from Million Dollar Way. If you are reading this post, you reeeeally ought to visit MDW daily.

Re-fracking to bring back initial production levels – possibly something the Saudis had not thought about.

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