Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Crude production increase in 2014 is largest in 100 years. What Peak Oil – #38

The Energy Information Administration says the increase in crude oil production (counting lease condensate also) during 2014 was 1.2M bopd. That is the largest increase since 1900, when record keeping started. The percentage increase is 16.2%, which is the largest percentage increase since 1940.

Is the cratering of crude oil prices going to crater oil production as OPEC wants to make happen? Not quite.

EIA expects crude oil will increase by these amounts:

  • +8.1% – increase in 2015
  • +1.5% – increase in 2016

What Peak Oil?

Recall that Peak Oil doctrine states that after hitting a peak (in the 1970s), oil production would begin an inevitable, irreversible decline towards zero.

Consider that doctrine as you check out these graphs, from EIA. Change in barrels per day, in millions:

 crude bopd increase 2014

Notice the huge increase in each of the last three years and increases for six years in a row.

Change in percentage terms:

crude percent increase 2014

Again, both graphs are from EIA.

Again, what Peak Oil?

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