Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Upside possibilities of refracking and different ideas on what Saudi Arabia is doing

Initial reports hint that refracking an existing well might pay off big time. Also, what is Saudi Arabia after?

7/12 – Million Dollar Way – Random Update Of a Recently Re-Fracked MRO Well in Killdeer Oil Field – Re-fracking is going to be the next big thing, based on articles I have read. Here is an illustration of the concept –

This well had been producing about 1,100 barrels of oil a month from June 2014 through November. Re-fracking took place in December or January. February production was almost 14,000 barrels. The next three months were about 10,000 in each month.

For the first six months the well was in operation back in 2009, it averaged 4,900 barrels a month. First four months after re-fracking the well averaged 11,000 barrels each month.

Very cool.

By the way, what Peak Oil?

Keep in mind the idea that American shale drillers might be able to increase production quickly with lower cost than a new well as you consider the following two articles….

7/13 – the American interest – Saudi’s Speed Up in Game of Chicken With US Shale – Reports indicate Saudi Arabia set a record amount of crude oil production last month. They are pushing harder to drive prices down. Article also reports they borrowed $4B over the last year to cover their deficit.

Oil prices are running half of what they were a year ago which is devastating the national budgets of OPEC members.

Article wonders who will blink first. Doesn’t seem like the Saudis can continue this very long. In the meantime fracking companies are getting more efficient at drilling & fracking. In general American companies are driving costs down rapidly.

Wouldn’t it be ironically funny if the only thing the Saudis accomplish is to dramatically drop the breakeven point for shale oil and convert Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian into on-and-off producers?

7/13 – Million Dollar Way – Saudi’s Set New Production Record; Saudi Increases Production 1% Month-Over-Month versus North Dakota 3% Increase Month-Over-Month – Completely different perspective from Mr. Oksol explains this not-so-whopping record production was a smidgen over 1% increase. At the same time North Dakota production increased 2.75% with dropping rig count.

MDW article explains Saudi Arabia has completed a $35B project over the last five years to increase their production. With that they were able to see a 1.46% increase in production. Um, has anyone considered that $35B would be enough to drill more than 4,000 wells in North Dakota at an assumed $8M each?

Article also explains the solar power facilities that were going to be used for Saudi desalinization plants have been shutdown. They will use oil instead. They have to pump more oil to replace the solar they were going to install. Also, they are using oil to run air conditioner in the summer. They need a ton more oil for domestic consumption. And they can barely increase production.

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