Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

North Dakota oil production remains steady in May 2019.

Photo by James Ulvog.

Oil production in North Dakota increased slightly to average of 1,393,284 BOPD in May 2019 (preliminary), up 799 BOPD from April (revised).

Rig count has been flat, ranging from low of 61 to high of 67 during the last 12 months.

An odd factor this month is small increase in production (up 799 bopd/day, 0.06%) with increase in producing wells of 194 (+1.26%).

Lynn Helms is cited in article at Bismarck Tribune (7/16/19 –Oil Production steady in May, but transportation woes persist) suggesting this is due to old legacy wells that produce around 25 barrels a day being closed in for the winter and then brought on-line from late spring until fall.

Economic driver explaining this is the costs of plowing roads and hauling oil makes such wells uneconomical in the winter. Thus they are taken off line in the winter.

The number of inactive wells dropped by 69 in May.

The two month changes are:

  • 141 – drop in inactive wells
  • 185 – well completions
  • 337 – increase in producing well count

That leaves an increase of 11 producing wells that isn’t explained by drop in inactive wells and completions.

Here is what the average production looks like:

 

Crude prices realized in the state with a comparison to West Texas Intermediate:

 

Based on the monthly production and the realized prices just mentioned, I caluculate the value of crude oil production in state as:

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