We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
During our September vacation in North Dakota, we were able to visit Fort Union Trading Post and Fort Buford. Both were a lot of fun to see.
The brochure produced by the National Park Service for the Fort Union Trading Post national historic site 25 miles southwest of Williston has lots of fun comments. I want to focus on the wages at the time and the wonderful beauty of free trade.
Continue reading “Fort Union Trading Post brochure shows the beauty of trade”
(Cross-posted from my other blog, Attestation Update. I am accumulating all my posts about transportation cost and prices into this blog, Outrun Change, for future reference.)
A while back I discussed a comment I read saying that when Caesar crossed the Rubicon, the Roman treasury held 17,410 pounds of gold, 22,070 pounds of silver and 6,135,400 sesterces.
I made a bunch of wild assumptions and estimated that volume of precious metals would be worth about $361M at today’s market prices.
See my post How much wealth was in the Roman treasury in 49 B.C.? How about annual tax revenue under Augustus?
A reader, Caleb, has expanded the discussion by indicating he thinks the value of gold was dramatically higher back then in relative terms that it is today. He estimates gold was around $7,000 an ounce in today’s dollars. See his comments at the above post for further explanation.
I enjoyed his comments so much I decided to create new post in order to extend the discussion.
Continue reading “More ideas on the wealth in the Roman treasury back in 49 B.C.”
I wish we had news this terrible in Southern California.
9/23 – Williston Herald – ‘Looking for work? Job fair boasts 400 job openings in sold-out show’ (paper edition so no link) – Two day job fair has 400 jobs or more. There are a dozen companies on the waiting list to get a table at the job fair.
Continue reading “A job slump in Williston would be a boom time in California.”
Why have we seen such dramatic improvement in average wealth and average life expectancy everywhere in the last 100 or 200 years? What has led to a radical reduction in the number of people living in dirt-eating poverty in the last 50 years?
Over the last few years I have focused a lot of my reading on economics and history trying to figure out the answers to those questions. Why?
If we figure out the answer to those questions we can continue in the same direction. If we sort out how we got here, we can share that strategy with those who have not shared in the progress. If you want a different phrasing, we can radically narrow economic inequality within countries and between countries if we can answer those questions. We can help get even more people out of dirt-eating poverty.
(Cross posted from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.) Continue reading “To sort through the question of how to share economic and health progress with everyone, check out a book from the winner of this year’s Nobel award in economics”
Where do you see more value in the following pictures? Which is more important? Both of the following photos courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com.
Actions have consequences. What seems like a good policy often causes more of the harm you wanted to prevent.
If you want to stop big game hunting, the unintended consequences include increasing the amount of farmers’ crops that get gobbled up by elephants and increasing the amount of ranchers’ livestock that gets gobbled up by lions. Villagers will be poorer.
I have previously discussed this issue: If you want to increase the number of large animals like elephants and rhinos, allow them to be privately owned and hunted.
Two years ago Botswana banned trophy hunting of big game animals. Since then the number of conflicts between big animals and humans has soared.
There are huge numbers of large animals in Botswana, which previously were managed as a public resource, with hunting intentionally managed and much of the fees shared with local villages.
The New York Times provides the details on 9/12: A Hunting Ban Saps a Village’s Livelihood. The NYT of all places. It is amazing to me that their editors even allowed the story to run.
One quoted person said he has lost 30 goats since the hunting ban went into effect, elephants have destroyed his maize and sorghum fields, his family no longer gets some of the big game meat the trophy hunters used to leave behind, and falling income for the village from hunting fees have ended his mother’s $200 a year pension. He and his family have suffered as a direct result of the ban.
Continue reading “Which is more important to you? Actual people or big animals?”
Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit on 9/24:
If your goal is to lift people from poverty, capitalism does what nothing else does. So, if that’s your goal, you should support capitalism.
On the other hand, if your goal is to feel good about yourself, then choose another economic system.
Help people get out of poverty or feel good about yourself – economic policies and positions tend to do one or the other, not both. Which do you choose?
(Sarcasm alert!!!! Sometimes ridicule is the only way to deal with foolishness. I dislike sarcasm because it is an unhealthy, corrosive humor. However, there are times when pointing and laughing out loud is the right way to call attention to slanted, agenda-filled bias. Think of all those Hitler-in-the-bunker videos.)
Okay, here we go with the sarcasm…
Ready?
…
I am so silly. Ever since I started paying attention to economics back in high school, I thought we wanted to see a booming economy in order to make life better for people. If we could grow the economy, everyone everywhere would have more money and enjoy a better standard of living. Work-a-day average Joes would have better health, more comfort, and a nicer life. I thought that was our goal.
I was so wrong.
Mail delivery slowing down in the U.S.
Inflation accelerating in Venezuela. (Cross-posted from my other blog, Attestation Update.)
Slowing mail delivery is not just in your imagination….
8/26 – Washington Post – Post Office can’t even meet its own lower standards as late mail soars – The Post Office reduced its goals for delivery time on first class mail. Now an internal report shows a 50% jump in late delivery during 2015 even with the more lax standard. Continue reading “The downside of government services. Postal delivery slowing. Hyperinflation.”
Turns out that Fish and Wildlife Service can’t just let the wind industry kill off eagles for 30 years without considering the environment issues because understanding the impact would be too hard to figure out.
8/13 – Courthouse News Service – Judge Rules for Eagles Over Wind Power – The Fish and Wildlife Service decided that when it gave special dispensation to wind farms to kill off a few eagles here and there they could grant permission for 30 years instead of the 5 years currently allowed. Under current rules, after the five-year limit expires the permission would be reviewed before allowing another 5 year to off a bunch of eagles.
When I described This is what hyperinflation looks like, I mentioned the Zimbabwe government was withdrawing all currency from circulation. They were exchanging 250 trillion Zimbabwe paper dollars for one US dollar.
The $10 trillion bill, pictured above is worth US$0.04.
For many years US dollars and South African Rands have been used as the de facto currency. The two Rand coin is worth about $.16 so the one and two Rand coins are used for making change.
With the Rand depreciating after having been stable for a long time, there is need for another way to make change.
The Frank-Dodd Act of 2010 requires companies to report whether there are any conflict minerals in their supply chain. This would include any gold, tin, tantalum, or tungsten originating in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The feel-good intention is to hurt militia groups funding their violence by selling those minerals.
The completely foreseeable yet unintended consequences are to hurt poor people, slightly inconvenience the militia warlords, and impose huge costs on American businesses. Oh, and starting next year, generate huge fees to CPAs.
Here’s a quick tour of articles to make my point. First some background:
Continue reading “Unintended consequences – Conflict mineral edition”
(ten trillion Zimbabwe dollars worth about 4 cents in US currency)
The government of Zimbabwe is converting all Zimbabwe dollars into U.S. dollars. It will then remove all Zim dollars from circulation. The economy has functioned on South African rands and American dollars since 2009.
The reason for getting rid of their currency?
Hyperinflation.
Prof. Mark Perry pulled together some estimates on the economics of a Bakken well in North Dakota in his post Top ten things I learned on my summer trip to the Bakken oil fields, Part II. Previously discussed Part I and Part II.
Here was his data:
Average cost to drill, frack and complete a Bakken oil well: $9 million
Expected production life of a Bakken oil well: 45 years
Lifetime oil production per well: 615,000 barrels
Expected lifetime revenue generated per well: $46.125 million at $75 per barrel
Total operating expenses per well: $2.3 million
Royalty payments to mineral owners per well over 45 years: $7.3 million
Taxes Paid per well: $4.325 million total ($2.1 million gross production taxes, $1.8 million extraction tax and $425,000 in sales taxes)
Total employee salaries and wages per well: $2.125 million
Average Profits Generated per Bakken well: $20 million net of costs and taxes
Let me rework those numbers –
This is a really rough guess of what the lifetime income statement might look like for one well: Continue reading “What do the economics of one Bakken well look like?”
Did you know raisin growers have to turn over a huge portion of their crop to the federal government? Growers get paid whatever is left over after the feds sell at a discount, giveaway or throw in the trash the reasons they collected.
In one year, a particular farmer got back less than what cost him to raise the raisins. In the following year he got zero. Zip.
Well, the good news is that as of today, that one specific New Deal program comes to an end. At least for raisins.
If you want to know why I’ve been reading a lot on developmental economics in the last few years, check out these amazingly depressing statistics –
Poverty in the United States:
Poverty around the world: