We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Look at the number of days from starting the well (spud) to reaching total depth on two wells:
16953, 440, Fidelity, Fladeland 11-15H, Sanish, t4/09; cum 163K 10/12; 29 days from spud to total depth; total depth = 16,100 feet;
23580, 1,295, Whiting, Iverson 41-14h, Sanish, t10/12; cum 6K 10/12; 12 days from spud to total depth; total depth = 16,576 feet;
How much shale-gas is underground? The Wall Street has a great graphic in their article Global Gas Push Stalls (behind paywall).
Here are a few of the largest estimated deposits, in trillions of cubic feet:
There’s huge amounts of shale gas waiting to be tapped. Enough to power economic and manufacturing revival in many countries. What we’ve seen in the U.S. market in terms of dropping prices (benefiting consumers a lot) and generating manufacturing growth could happen in Argentina, Poland, France, South Africa, Brazil, Algeria, and Libya.
But will it? Doesn’t look likely at the moment.
Continue reading “We don’t have to prosper from all that oil we found, world edition – Peak Oil #15”
Check out the graph of production in Texas, which shows output …
roughly doubled in just the last three years, from 1.08 million barrels of output per day in September 2009 to 2.05 million barrels per day in September of this year.
That observation and cool graph is from Prof. Perry’s post Eagle Ford Shale: the most profitable oil field in the world with dozens of “monster wells” producing up to 5,000 bpd.
He points to another article by Jennifer Hiller, Finding the sweet spots of the Eagle Ford at Fuel Fix blog.
Two fun tidbits from the post.
As a marker for future discussions in my blog, just wanted to note that Continental Resources Inc is estimating the Bakken field
holds the equivalent of 903 billion barrels of so-called oil in place, compared with the company’s 2010 estimate of 577 billion,
Eagle Ford Shale blog has a graph of oil production in Texas over the last 30 years – Texas Oil Production Surpassed 1988 Levels in September 2012. Looks like a near straight-line up since the first of 2011.
Continue reading “Texas oil production highest level in 25 years”
KFYR-TV in Bismark has the report: Williston Airport Breaks Record.
It is about a month that United and Delta have been flying into Williston. The article reports 5,000 passengers through the airport in November. That is the record, surpassing the previous record of 2,000.
Continue reading “Record passengers at Williston airport after Delta and United flights begin”
Bruce Oskol, writing at Million Dollar Way, gives some background why he started that blog:
Again, one of several reasons for starting the blog a couple years ago was to counter the naysayers.
The original naysayers doubted the Bakken even existed — hard to believe, I know; and then, when the numbers started coming out of the Bakken, the naysayers said the Bakken was good for North Dakota but that was about it.
I particularly enjoy citing this post from another blog as an example: “Don’t believe it. There’s some oil to be gotten out of Bakken, and it’s going to be exploited. But the “bonanza” is nothing but hype.” — June 25, 2010.
“Some oil to be gotten out of the Bakken … Nothing but hype.” Wow.
I checked on the link and found Bakken Oil Hype at The American West at Risk blog.
Wow is right.
I make it a high priority to avoid corrosive humor, such as sarcasm or ridicule, in my writing. But when it comes to the foolish Peak Oil concept, laughter seems to be the only appropriate response.
factual background
In a 1949 article, Dr. M. King Hubbert was able to calculate the total amount of oil that exists on the earth. Don’t take my word for it. See page 105 of “Energy from Fossil Fuels, Science” [scanned, 260 kb]. Won’t link to any specifics, but the ability he had to calculate the total amount of oil that will ever be known is a skill still present today.
Continue reading “Three of the six biggest oil fields ever found cannot exist – Peak Oil #13”
Here’s RBN Energy’s estimate for hitting 1M bopd, in their 11-19-12 blog post, From a Famine of Pipeline to a Feast of Rail – Giving Thanks for Bakken Delivery. The post graphs N.D. production by month and then adds a trend line:
Continue reading “RBN’s estimate on when Bakken production passes 1 million barrels a day”
Pipelines take a long time to build. The rapid increase in oil coming out of the ground in North Dakota was leaving producers worried. How could they get all that oil to market? There was so much oil going through the existing pipeline to one location (Cushing) that there was a big discount on that oil.
People who wanted to make a buck stepped in. There’s now enough capacity to get all the oil to market and the discount for Bakken crude is gone.
That’s my summary of RBN Energy’s post, From a Famine of Pipeline to a Feast of Rail – Giving Thanks for Bakken Delivery.
Update: This is part 12 of my Peak Oil series.)
An article in Business Insider suggests There Is A Shale Oil Field Under Santa Barbara Four-Times Bigger Than The Bakken.
The article cites without linking (and I don’t want to spend the time finding the source) an EIA analysis:
According to the EIA, the Monterey Formation, which covers an enormous chunk of Southern California and terminates near Santa Barbara, has 15.4 billion barrels of recoverable crude — four times as much as the Bakken formation in North Dakota.
Continue reading “We don’t have to prosper, California edition”
Yes. That’s the forecast from the International Energy Administration.
Their report has been discussed in lots of places this week.
I’ll make note of their long-term forecast for future reference: U.S. oil production greater than Saudi Arabia by 2020. That’s only 8 years from now.
Mark Mills discusses some of the impacts of surging production in the U.S. in his post The International Energy Agency Catches Up With America’s Oil Producers.
Continue reading “U.S. to surpass Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020?”
I’m making note of estimates of when Bakken will hit a million bopd.
John Kemp in an Reuters article asks Is Bakken Set to Rival Ghawar? .
He makes this estimate:
Continue reading “Another forecast when Bakken hits 1M bopd”
I’m so wet behind the ears that it isn’t funny, so its no surprise I’m constantly amazed at new info on Bakken, like the potentially huge size of the Bakken field.
John Kemp in a Reuters article asks Is Bakken Set to Rival Ghawar?
Some background:
Ghawar is producing around six million barrels of oil per day (bopd).
Many people think Bakken is approaching the point of having a million bopd of output. I’ve been tracking those estimates as I stumble across them.
Continue reading “Will Bakken be one of the 7 biggest oil fields ever?”
Contrary to what I have been saying, it actually is possible for us to hit a peak in oil production followed by a dramatic drop in output leading to a perpetual decline in the available energy we have.
How?
We as a society can decide that’s what we want. Or our politicians can choose that for us. Or regulators can impose their choice.
I’ve noticed a number of articles in recent months that make that point. Consider the following.