Other stuff – Page 8 – Outrun Change

Additional indications of economic destruction from the shutdown.

Here are a few articles in the last few days describing the economic catastrophe that is expanding daily as we watch. Estimate is out that one out of four employees in Los Angeles are out of work. Higher education as an industry is in danger.

4/14/20 – American Enterprise Institute – The International Monetary Fund’s coronavirus reality check – The IMF expects a worse downturn than the ‘08/’09 Great Recession. Global output is expected to have a US$9 trillion loss in output from what would have been expected.

For the US and Europe the loss will be equal to two years worth of economic growth.

4/17/20 – LAist – LA’s Latest Unemployment Numbers Are Staggering. An Estimated 1.3M Jobs Have Already Been Lost – Percent of LA county residents who are employed is estimated at 45%. That is down from 61% in March. The difference is 16%. Divide that by the 61% employed prior month indicates 26% of the people working a month ago are now unemployed. Data is from researchers at USC.

Continue reading “Additional indications of economic destruction from the shutdown.”

More attacks on constitutional freedoms.

This dream of so many elected politicians is flagrantly illegal. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Because a large and growing number of elected officials do not have a functional awareness of the Bill of Rights, I will recite the first and second amendments. Will then cite merely a few of the recent violations thereof.

Article I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Article II

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

..the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

4/17/20 – NJ.com – Woman charged for organizing protest of Murphy’s coronavirus stay-at-home order – Continue reading “More attacks on constitutional freedoms.”

What is cost of the shutdown in terms of lowered overall health and increased mortality?

Diagram of tradeoff. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Found an article that well explains the worry I have from this extended shutdown of most of the US economy.

4/17/20 – Wall Street Journal – The Hidden Toll of Untreated Illnesses / As COVID-19 overwhelms doctors and hospitals, patients with other conditions receive less care, leading to a rise in mortality.

My concern is the shutdown, loss of income, and isolation will have adverse health consequences. What will we see in terms of the level of increased mortality of people with serious illnesses which would otherwise not occur?

How many people are going to die from the shutdown?

What the tipping point at which the shutdown has more cost in terms of health than benefit? The first step in addressing that question is realizing the question even exists.

(Cross-post from my other blog Nonprofit Update.)

Author of the article is a practicing cardiologist.

Continue reading “What is cost of the shutdown in terms of lowered overall health and increased mortality?”

Voiding of the U.S. Constitution by executive order.

Here are highlights of a few articles I’ve read over the last few days. Not all of the articles. Not all the issues. Not all the states.

Please see if you notice a trend.

4/14/20 – Legal Insurrection – First Amendment Fail – Raleigh police: “Protesting is a non-essential activity” – Citizens protesting the shutdown of the economy – citizens mind you, not subjects – were told by the Raleigh, North Carolina police to disperse. The police obviously announced that to the assembly and also sent out a message.

The police proclaimed, on twitter that:

“Protesting is a non-essential activity.”

See the article for a screen shot.

4/10/20 – Bridge – What Michigan’s new coronavirus stay-at-home executive order means – By executive fiat, the Michigan governor issued expansive orders restricting what can be sold and outlined a restrictive stay-at-home order.

Large stores, like Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot may not sell:

Continue reading “Voiding of the U.S. Constitution by executive order.”

Economic damage from shutdown – 4/15.

A few more articles on damage we are seeing from the economic shutdown.

(Cross post from my other blog, Attestation Update.)

Guess on California unemployment rate

April 2020 – Eberhardt School of Business, University of Pacific – Initial Estimates of Employment Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic – The school of business estimates an unemployment rate of 18.8% in California for the month of May 2020.

This is in contrast to 2010 rate of 12.2% and 2019 rate of 4.0%.

Likely increase in bankruptcies

4/13/20 – Washington Examiner – Pandemic likely to exceed Great Recession in number of bankruptcies – Economists from a leftist think tank and a conservative think tank both guess that the number of bankruptcies from the current shutdown of the economy will exceed the number from the Great Recession.

Continue reading “Economic damage from shutdown – 4/15.”

Collateral damage from shutdown.

The damage from the shutdown of the U.S. economy will be severe. Having ‘flattened the curve’, rapidly expanded hospital capacity, and kicked critical production lines into high gear, it is time open up the economy before the second order impacts cause more health damage and death from the shutdown than from the coronavirus.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

4/10/20 – originally posted on Medium but was pulled; do a bit of reading and then make your own assessment why the site didn’t want the article to remain visible to the public – Eight Reasons to End the Lockdowns Now – article was written by five medical doctors and one Doctor of Nursing Practice.

The eight reasons:

Continue reading “Collateral damage from shutdown.”

This is what religious freedom looks like.

(Cross-posted from my other blog, Freedom is Moral. Originally posted on 3/3/13. Will repost and slightly update today.)

Yesterday one-third of the people on the planet celebrated the most holy day of their faith – Easter.

Yesterday was just another Sunday for two-thirds of the people on the planet.

As I understand it, this upcoming Thursday marks the last day of Passover, a high point of the Jewish faith (Updated for 2020). Passover celebrates the exodus from slavery as Moses led the people of Israel toward the promised land. For those reading this blog who are Jews, from the bottom of my heart I sincerely hope you have a wonderful and blessed time of celebration.

For everyone else, I sincerely hope you had a relaxing weekend, maybe got to sleep in late. I’m quite serious. I hope you had a nice, fun, refreshing weekend. (Update to 2020: Or, more precisely, I hope you got to do as much relaxing as you could while under stay-at-home orders.)

Here’s what religious freedom looks like:

Continue reading “This is what religious freedom looks like.”

He is risen! Allelluia!

Mary Magdalene, Mary, & Salom walking up to the bright empty tomb of Jesus Christ early Sunday morning, Showing Golgotha in the background. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

More songs to enjoy as we continue to celebrate the risen Lord:

Crown Him with Many Crowns

Recorded at Westminster Abbey.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/3kPkjghup8E]

Lyrics: Crown Him with Many Crowns

I know that My Redeemer Lives

Job 19:25-27 from the New International Version (NIV):

Continue reading “He is risen! Allelluia!”

Blessed Easter to you! He is risen!

He is risen!

He is risen indeed!

Here’s a selection of videos to help your celebration on this most wonderful day, even though we be worshiping apart due to the coronavirus pandemic, nothing shall ever stop the good news:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dT7dGcsrPkQ]

Continue reading “Blessed Easter to you! He is risen!”

Jerusalem Daily Reporter, Sunday pre-sunrise edition: “Jesus of Nazareth, Enemy Of The State, Executed For Treason”

News flash from 4/5/15:

Jerry Bowyer has the report from Jerusalem. It is in the very early edition of today’s paper. Apparently that seditious rabble-rouser from Nazareth got his just due Friday past when the Sanhedrin and Roman government both agreed to address treason as treason ought be addressed.

The article’s first paragraph,

Jesus of Nazareth was executed today on the orders of the Roman State. Method of execution: Crucifixion. The charge under Roman law was treason, and under Herodian law blasphemy against the Temple. The evidence against this anarchist was so strong that authorities of both the Roman State and the Kingdom of Herod concurred with the arrest and execution, and he was subjected to trial by both governments. And in a rare uprising of spontaneous collective justice, the mass of people who were gathered for Passover called for his execution as well. The mob affirmed their loyalty to the state, chanting, “We have no king but Caesar.”

For the rest of the story, check out the full news report in Forbes: Jesus of Nazareth, Enemy Of The State, Executed For Treason.

After reading the full article, I’m sure you will agree with me that we shall never hear of his name again.

Hold on…

Continue reading “Jerusalem Daily Reporter, Sunday pre-sunrise edition: “Jesus of Nazareth, Enemy Of The State, Executed For Treason””

French nuclear weapon inventory in 2019.

070723-N-6524M-004 by cryogenic666 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. Mediterranean Sea (July 23, 2007)– A French Rafale M combat aircraft performs a catapult-assisted launch from the flight deck of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (CVN 65). The Rafale is the first French aircraft to both launch and recover on an American carrier. U.S Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Brandon Morris. Image released by LT Mark C. Jones, PAO CVN 65.

For an overview of France’s nuclear weapons consider the document French nuclear forces, 2019 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Their preferred citation is: Hans M. Kristensen & Matt Korda (2019) French nuclear forces, 2019, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 75:1, 51-55, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2019.1556003.

The bulk of their nuclear inventory is submarine based with a small number of land-based fighters and a smaller number of carrier-based fighters.

Strategy

France’s defense policy is their nuclear weapons are for “legitimate self-defense.” They have not adopted a no-first-use policy and reserve the right for a limited strike as a “final warning” that they will defend themselves.

SLBMs and SSBNs

France has four Triomphant-class nuclear powered submarines. One of these SSBNs is always on patrol, a second is getting ready to go on patrol, another has returned from patrol, and the final one is in maintenance. Article says each sub patrol is approximately 70 days.

Continue reading “French nuclear weapon inventory in 2019.”

Alert status and comparison of US and Soviet strategic arsenals in 1990.

A B-1B Lancer deployed from Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., prepares for a mission at Andersen AFB, Guam, Nov. 16, 2017. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Gerald R. Willis)

Previous posts listed the strategic nuclear arsenals of the U.S. and U.S.S.R. in 1990.

This discussion will compare the total inventories and then calculate my wild guesses for weapons on daily alert.

Full disclosure: Back in the bad old days of the Cold War, I was a tiny little cog in the ICBM forces listed below.

Here is a comparison of total inventory for each country:

Continue reading “Alert status and comparison of US and Soviet strategic arsenals in 1990.”

Airplane photos: P-38 edition

Nice photos of P-38 Lightning, courtesy of U.S. Air Force:

OVER VIRGINA — Steve Hinton flies “Glacier Girl,” a P-38 Lightning dug out from 268 feet of ice in eastern Greenland in 1992. The aircraft was part of a heritage flight during an air show at Langley Air Force Base, Va., on May 21. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Ben Bloker). Last I knew, “Glacier Girl” resides at the Planes of Fame Museum in Chino, California

Continue reading “Airplane photos: P-38 edition”

Why all these discussions of nuclear weapons, especially now?

LGM-30 Minuteman III
An LGM-30 Minuteman III missile soars in the air after a test launch. (U.S. Air Force photo) No date provided or further attribution attached to photo.

Been wondering why I’m continuing my posts on nuclear weapons? Especially in light of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Here are the first few reasons that come to mind:

Life continues. All of us, especially me, need to continue on with our lives. The current pandemic is going to be with us for a short while. There will be an echo in the next flu season. This COVID-19 bug is going to be around for a long time. We need to keep living.

Continue reading “Why all these discussions of nuclear weapons, especially now?”

Inventory and accuracy of Soviet nuclear weapons in 1990.

Untitled photo of Tu-95 Bear under escort by F-15C Eagle by Robert Sullivan is in the public domain (CC0 1.0)

In my research on nuclear armaments came across a superb resource: Physics and Nuclear Arms Today (Readings from Physics Today)

(Update 4/2/20: Title of post revised.)

The book has lots of articles from the early 1980s through 1991. I bought the book especially for one specific article in 1983 dealing with US and Soviet nuclear forces. The gold mine in that article was a detailed inventory of strategic weaponry as of 1990. It gives a detailed listing of U.S. and Soviet land, submarine, and air based strategic weapons, including count, yield, equivalent megaton, and circular error probable (CEP). Lots of info I’ve been seeking for a long time.

The previous post gave info on US weapons. This post describes the Soviet inventory. Third post will make some comparisons.

First I’ll give my recap of the info and then do a little analysis. Width limits on web pages mean there will be multiple tables.

Continue reading “Inventory and accuracy of Soviet nuclear weapons in 1990.”