We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Don’t ever make the mistake of projecting into the past what we know today about the result of an event. – from Prof. Gary Gallagher.
That’s a rough paraphrase of a comment by Prof. Gallagher in his course on the American Civil War from Great Courses.
That’s a powerful concept.
Check out the photo –
Thanks to capitalism all of these things now fit in your pocket.
If you wanted to move those things from one room to another, it would take half a dozen trips back then.
Continue reading “14 bulky electronics gadgets from 1980 fit in your pocket today”
Yes. That’s the forecast from the International Energy Administration.
Their report has been discussed in lots of places this week.
I’ll make note of their long-term forecast for future reference: U.S. oil production greater than Saudi Arabia by 2020. That’s only 8 years from now.
Mark Mills discusses some of the impacts of surging production in the U.S. in his post The International Energy Agency Catches Up With America’s Oil Producers.
Continue reading “U.S. to surpass Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020?”
Likewise for everything you ever use – millions of people working together created it not knowing what they were actually working on. Why?
“Voluntary spontaneous cooperation”
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYO3tOqDISE&feature=player_embedded]
From the waitress serving lunch for the lumberjacks cutting down a cedar tree, to the miners pulling ore out of the ground, to the engine room crew on a freighter bringing the ore to the U.S. to the engineer driving the train bringing the pencil to the regional distribution center to the forklift operator loading the truck that carries stuff to restock your neighborhood store, millions of people worked together to create the pencil you will hold in your hand during tomorrow’s staff meeting.
I’m making note of estimates of when Bakken will hit a million bopd.
John Kemp in an Reuters article asks Is Bakken Set to Rival Ghawar? .
He makes this estimate:
Continue reading “Another forecast when Bakken hits 1M bopd”
I’m so wet behind the ears that it isn’t funny, so its no surprise I’m constantly amazed at new info on Bakken, like the potentially huge size of the Bakken field.
John Kemp in a Reuters article asks Is Bakken Set to Rival Ghawar?
Some background:
Ghawar is producing around six million barrels of oil per day (bopd).
Many people think Bakken is approaching the point of having a million bopd of output. I’ve been tracking those estimates as I stumble across them.
Continue reading “Will Bakken be one of the 7 biggest oil fields ever?”
If you want a depressing visual that shows the trouble brewing in Africa, check out the map sketched by Via Meadia in Walter Mead’s post War Plans for Mali Leaked.
That long green area in the north half of Mali stretching into center Niger is the area of influence for the jihadist group that controls northern Mali. That green area in the northern two-thirds of Nigeria is the area controlled by Boko Haram.
Ignored in policy setting discussions is the likelihood that people will change their behavior in unexpected ways to go around a costly or burdensome or intrusive new policy. The latest of many examples is from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal – Health-Care Law Spurs a Shift to Part-Time Workers.
I will work up an example to show why companies would consider this.
It seems that in order to avoid a major increase in costs, many employers are thinking about reducing their staff’s hours to less than the number of hours where health insurance coverage is required.
The article mentions several companies moving in this direction: Continue reading “Unintended consequences – reducing employee hours to avoid cost of health insurance coverage”
Contrary to what I have been saying, it actually is possible for us to hit a peak in oil production followed by a dramatic drop in output leading to a perpetual decline in the available energy we have.
How?
We as a society can decide that’s what we want. Or our politicians can choose that for us. Or regulators can impose their choice.
I’ve noticed a number of articles in recent months that make that point. Consider the following.
I finished listening to two series of lectures from Great Courses. This is the first time I’ve used their material. They have great stuff.
I’ve long thought that the concept of taking their recorded, college-level lectures and adding a reading list plus a test could produce a high-quality, college-level class. I’m more convinced now than before.
The courses were presented by subject experts. Even with my above average level of knowledge on these two topics, I learned a lot and was stretched intellectually.
The courses were Continue reading “Recorded lectures are a great starting point for online education”
New Jersey has apparently made supply and demand illegal. The power of the state will hammer anyone who charges more than the state feels is reasonable by their standards. See Price gouging complaints in New Jersey as merely one report on the topic.
Making it illegal to sell stuff at the market price guarantees the shortages will get worse. Why?
People will panic-buy things they don’t need, retailers may not be able to get replacement stock, and some retailers may have to close their doors when they run out of stuff.
As a natural and logical result, other people who really need something will find only bare shelves.
But it sure feels good to rant against ‘price gouging’. Makes for great sound bites on TV.
On the other hand, if you let prices rise, the price signal will allocate the scarce goods to people who really need them. Why?
Continue reading “How to guarantee shortages – make the price signal illegal”
The recent gas shortage in California is a superb illustration of the idea that if you don’t meddle with prices and just leave them alone, they will communicate to everyone how scarce a resource is. The natural and expected result is that people who want the resource can get it.
Prices worked
The recent gas crunch shows what happens when you let the market work. Prices spiked because of a supply crunch. People who didn’t really, really need gasoline held off on topping their tank. People who really, really did need gas could get it.
Two things prove this to me.
Some people haven’t caught on to the idea that it’s not smart to be nasty and threatening to a blogger.
Jr Deputy Accountant, a popular blogger on accounting & finance in general and bad policy moves by the Federal Reserve in particular, got some letters from an attorney complaining about a three-year old post.
Instead of making a polite take-down request, the attorney got nasty, with harsh threats of expensive litigation.
Don’t pick a fight with someone who buys pixels by the terabyte.
I joked about that idea in an earlier post.
It’s an even worse idea to pick a fight with someone who gets volume discounts from WordPress.
Background
Mark Perry shows what’s happened in U.S. oil production one simple graph.
It shows production in Texas, Alaska, California, and North Dakota, the top 4 oil-producing states, from 2002 through 2012: .
Check out the graph at Energy chart of the day: Shale oil production in North Dakota and Texas has boosted US oil production to a 17-year high.
Amazing.
Continue reading “Dramatic increase in oil production told in one graph”
Actually, it’s a war that is brewing there.
This headline by Walter Russell Mead explains the problem: International Jihadis Descend on Mali. He says:
What is certain is that all over the world jihadis and jihadi wanna-bes have a new destination: northern Mali, where the ill-judged war in Libya has created a safe haven for some of the worst people in the world.
Northern Mali is controlled by a few factions of the jihadis. That makes it a great place to go if you want to plan and train without interruptions from bombs, missiles, and visits from heavy-armed & highly unfriendly soldiers.
The basic plan by France, with some level of approval from the U.N. Security Council, is taking shape. Continue reading “Looks like a nasty storm brewing in Mali”