Outrun Change – Page 44 – We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

More on the high cost of low capacity from wind power

Photo by James Ulvog. — Out of focus photo by James Ulvog.

One of several catastrophic obstacles to relying on wind power to generate a large portion of our electricity is that wind turbines only generate electricity when the wind is blowing. That makes wind power quite unreliable.

Diving further into that issue shows that the wind blows more in some months more than others and this variable capacity further varies by region.

Why is this an issue? Electricity must be generated at the instant it is needed (allowing for the time it takes for electricity to get from the generating source to your house). It cannot be stored.

Variability over the course of a year

Check out the following graph from the Energy Information Administration:

That graph, which can be found here, is in the public domain since it is government information. It shows that on average across the country during the course of a year wind facilities have an average capacity of about 32%.

Continue reading “More on the high cost of low capacity from wind power”

Cost to construct energy facilities

I am trying to collect reference points for the cost to construct different types of facilities. Here are a few data points I’ve noticed lately and some data points I’ve mentioned before.

Remember to discount all the construction costs below by the 15% to 30% capacity rate. That means backup natural gas or coal plants are needed for the 70% or 85% of the minutes each day the facilities aren’t producing.

Offshore oil

I haven’t paid attention to offshore drilling so I’m not familiar with production levels or costs. Here is one data point I just saw:

11/25/15 – Wall Street Journal – Italy’s Eni Plans to Pump Arctic Oil, After Others Abandon the Field – An Italian oil company, Eni SpA, will continue its work 300 miles north of the Arctic Circle. Their Goliat platform will start pumping in 2015.

Goal is to produce 100,000 bopd. Cost is estimated at $6 billion. Field is expected to be productive for 15 years.

For context, you could probably drill 1,000 wells in North Dakota for $6B.

Solar

3/17/15 – Million Dollar Way – Here we go again – solar project in the dead of winter in a northern latitude state. – Standing Rock Reservation will construct 636kW solar project for $2M, of which $1M will be from federal government. Continue reading “Cost to construct energy facilities”

Flat output from U.S. shale in last 12 months is not quite what OPEC had in mind

Pumpjacks about ready to come online in North Dakota. Photo in October 2015 by James Ulvog. Not what OPEC planned. — Pumpjacks in North Dakota about ready to start pumping. Photo in October 2015 by James Ulvog. Not what OPEC planned.

Production in the Bakken field of North Dakota dropped 4,140 bopd from October 2014 to October 2014. Going from average output of 1,118,070 bopd a year ago to 1,113,930 in 10/14 is a drop of 0.37%, or about one-third of one percent.

Overall production in North Dakota dropped 14,565 bopd, or 1.23% in the same time.

I don’t think flat production is what OPEC, I mean Saudi Arabia, had in mind when they went for maximum production.

Continue reading “Flat output from U.S. shale in last 12 months is not quite what OPEC had in mind”

Why I am so optimistic – 3

The future is so bright we need sunglasses. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The number of people working in manufacturing has been declining for many years. Those job losses will continue at the same time as technology disrupts other industries causing the loss of more jobs.

This is not a new concept. Technological advances have devastated farm employment over the last 150 years.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

Prof. Thomas Tunstall pondered Where the New Jobs Will Come From. Sub headline on his 11/4/15 article said:

In 2007 iPhone application developers didn’t exist. By 2011 Apple had $15 billion in mobile-app revenues.

Consider the percentage of the population employed in agriculture over time: Continue reading “Why I am so optimistic – 3”

Two wind farm projects approved in North Dakota

Birds that are at risk of finding out why turbines are called slice-and-dicers. Pictures courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com. — Birds that are at risk of finding out why wind turbines should be called slice-and-dicers. Pictures courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com.

Two slice-and-dice operations have received permission to move forward.

Continue reading “Two wind farm projects approved in North Dakota”

Why I am so optimistic – 2

200 years ago subsistence agriculture was the norm across the planet. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — 200 years ago brutal poverty was the norm across the planet. Not so today. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Previously mentioned when I look at long-term economic trends I am incredibly optimistic. When I look at the headlines this morning or news from the political world, I am very discouraged.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

To see one illustration of why I am so optimistic for the long-term, check out a column by Glenn Reynolds at USA Today: Actually, things are pretty good / Free markets and free inquiry have changed the historic ‘norms’ of poverty and violence.

Earlier post summarized in one paragraph what caused this radical improvement.

Here are a final two points from the article I’d like to highlight:

Second, it is possible for us collectively to turn back history.

Continue reading “Why I am so optimistic – 2”

Why I am so optimistic – 1

When I look at the political news or any news in general I get very pessimistic about our future.

In contrast, when I look at the amazing things happening beyond the headlines in today’s newspaper I feel incredibly optimistic.

Consider that private companies are developing the technology for space exploration. Consider the energy revolution created by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Consider radical changes in technology that are making so many things easier, faster, and cheaper. Consider that anyone that wants to do so can publish their own book, distribute their own music, or create a feature movie.

As a tiny illustration, look at my company and pastimes. Technology allows me to run a high quality CPA practice without any staff. In my spare time I am a publisher and journalist. Anyone in Europe or North America or most of Asia could easily do the same and at minimal cost.

(Cross post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

When I look at long-term economic trends I am incredibly optimistic.

For yet one more explanation of why that is the case, consider a column by Glenn Reynolds at USA Today: Actually, things are pretty good / Free markets and free inquiry have changed the historic ‘norms’ of poverty and violence.

Until relatively recently, an illness-filled short life of dirt-eating poverty was the normal condition for practically everybody on the planet. In the last 100 or 200 years life has gotten radically better for practically everyone.

Continue reading “Why I am so optimistic – 1”

Minor followup on media discussion of Bakken

Actual productive effort in North Dakota. Photo by James Ulvog. — Actual productive effort in North Dakota. No spin here. Fuzzy photo by James Ulvog.

Two minor followups, first on the evening soap opera ‘Blood & Oil’ and then a documentary about Williston. Mentioned both of these previously.

In addition to getting the production run cut from 13 to 10 episodes, the drama “Blood & Oil” took a two-week vacation on the schedule during November. I was wondering if the show was even going to finish out the run of 10 episodes.

Well, according to Wikipedia the show finally made it through airing all of the reduced run. Ratings and share has stabilized in the basement with the number of viewers trending down.

Continue reading “Minor followup on media discussion of Bakken”

More news on the impact of low oil prices, Saudi Arabia edition

The foreign reserves in Saudi Arabia look something like this in 2015. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — The foreign reserves in Saudi Arabia looked something like this in 2015. Likely to continue for several more years. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

It is rare I can find two articles in one newspaper edition that tell a story so well when you put them together. Check check out the Wall Street Journal on December 24:

OPEC Report Suggests Oil-Price Rebound, Supply Cut / Prices to rise to the $70 a barrel in 2020, $95 a barrel in 2040, cartel predicts.

The subtitle tells the story: OPEC expects prices to rise very slowly climbing only $14 over the next seven years and another $25 over the following 20 years. That would suggest the following:

$37 – Brent crude on Wednesday
$70 – 2020
$95 – 2040

Their forecast of worldwide demand:

92.8M bopd – now
97.4M bopd – 2020

Some other of their forecasts. Oil supply from Canada and US:

17.3M bopd – 2014
19.8M bopd – 2020

Um, that is not much of a slowdown.

Shale oil from US:

4.4M bopd – 2016
5.2M bopd – 2020

Umm, that is not even close to what OPEC had in mind.

Keep in mind that extremely bleak long-term forecast for oil prices.

Possible impact on Saudi national budget

Saudi Budget Expected to be Squeezed by Low Oil Prices / Kingdom may be forced to slash spending, cut benefits for public. Very low prices are likely to force the government to cut the extensive benefits poured out to its citizens. Heavy subsidies provide artificially low-priced energy and food. Continue reading “More news on the impact of low oil prices, Saudi Arabia edition”

Intentional federal policies extended Great Depression by seven years

Hunger sculpture at FRR Memorial in Washington DC. How much earlier could hunger have ended with different policies? Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com. — Hunger sculpture at FDR Memorial in Washington DC. A monument to the man whose policies added extra years to the Depression yet who rarely gets credit for the unnecessary suffering. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com.

An extra seven years.

That is the conclusion two economists published back in 2004: intentional policies from FDR added seven years of suffering for the country.

Yes, that analysis was published back in 2004. Sometimes it takes me a while to catch up on the news.

On 8/10/04 the UCLA Newsroom published FDR’s policies prolonged Depression by seven years, UCLA economists calculate.

Cause

The cause of extending the Great Depression, according to the economists, was the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) which protected industries from antitrust prosecution in return for adopting collective bargaining agreements. The result was unions drove up wages beyond where the market would have set them, companies were intentionally not prosecuted for collusion, thus companies cooperated in setting prices, which in turn drove up prices to consumers. As a result consumers had much more difficulty affording stuff and therefore actually bought less stuff, which further contracted the economy.

(cross-post from my other blog, Freedom is Moral.)

Continue reading “Intentional federal policies extended Great Depression by seven years”

SpaceX successfully lands a first stage booster

[youtube=https://youtu.be/ZCBE8ocOkAQ?t=6]

Space.com provides the great news: Wow! SpaceX Lands Orbital Rocket Successfully in Historic First. On December 21 SpaceX successfully launched 11 satellites into orbit. The secondary objective was to recover the first stage.

On the third attempt to do so, they successfully landed the first stage booster on land. After (not if, but when) they figure out how to do this routinely the cost of a space launch will drop radically. Article says the drop in cost could be in the range of a factor of 100.

One of the commenters on the following video gave this comparison: The flight on 12/21 is like launching a pencil over the Empire State Building, slowing down, and landing softly inside an area the size of a shoe box.

Continue reading “SpaceX successfully lands a first stage booster”

“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.”

Do you see a vase or two faces? Answer depends on your opinion and perspective. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — Do you see a vase or two faces? Answer depends on your perspective. What is your opinion? Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Philosiblog discusses this quote from the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius:

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact.

Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.

Philosiblog ponders the quote in the context of personal relationships. (Check out the link above.) Everything a person tells you is filtered by their worldview and their perspective of what they discuss. Likewise, you filter their comments based on your worldview and your perspective of what they said. You filter everything you see through your perspective.

Continue reading ““Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.””

News from the wide open frontier of space exploration

Cygnus capsule, ready to dock with ISS. Courtesy of Orbital ATK.

Recently I’ve seen a number of fun articles on space exploration. Here are a few to share: successful resupply launch to ISS after several failures across the industry, competition between spaceplane and reusable boosters, and China developing a new manned capsule.

12/6 – ABC News – Liftoff: 1st US Shipment in Months Flying to Space Station – Orbital ATK’s cargo ship launched on top of a ULA Atlas 5 rocket. Cygnus is carrying 7,400 pounds of supplies to the ISS.

Orbital lost a supply run in October 2014, Russia lost one earlier in 2015, and SpaceX lost one in June 2015. Keep in mind that launching rockets into space is the difficult task that is behind the putdown of ‘it isn’t rocket science’.

12/8 – NASAspaceflight.com – Berthing Complete: OA-4 Cygnus arrives at the ISS – the Cygnus cargo ship has been docked at the ISS. Article gives good explanation of the complexity of getting a supply ship to exactly match the orbit of the ISS and the very careful process of trying to close and then grab for docking. Continue reading “News from the wide open frontier of space exploration”

Update on the wide open frontier of technology – 12/21

Lots of amazing things going on in the technology open frontier: military countermeasures to combat drones, registration requirement for small drones goes into effect today, and lots of federal agencies use cellphone spying technology.

12/14 – Space War – Venom could address UAV threat to ground forces –

Continue reading “Update on the wide open frontier of technology – 12/21”

Update on status of Keith Graves – 12/18/15

Just checked the docket for now-convicted human-trafficker Keith Graves on the federal PACER system. The only new item since my last update is a forfeiture order. I don’t see indications that he has filed an appeal.

Continue reading “Update on status of Keith Graves – 12/18/15”