Production in March averaged 782,934 bopd, up about 0.5% from the slightly revised February amount of 779,144 bopd.
Continue reading “Oil production in North Dakota barely increases in 3-13”
Tag: oil production
“Bakken Assembly Line” – drilling will continue for 3 more years at the current pace
Bruce Oksol provides a voice of calm in response to an alarmist editorial in the Bismarck Tribune. The editorial mentions that the state government expects 6,000 wells to come on-line in the next three years. That will lead to huge increases in drilling, truck traffic, and overall activity. At least according to the paper: Prepare for a “big surge” in Bakken.
Actually, that would be a continuation of the pace of drilling that is going on now. Today. More Details on the Coming Surge in The Bakken: 6,000 Additional Bakken Wells Over The Next Three Years reminds us that the current production rate is already 2,000 new wells a year.
Estimate of lifetime financial performance of one Bakken well
Since I’m an accountant, I keep an eye out for info on how one well might perform over its lifetime. Any real data for a well, let alone enough to look at averages, would be a closely guarded trade secret, so I’ll talk about public info.
Of course, if someone wanted to confidentially drop me some actual data & forecasts for real wells, I’d be happy to describe anonymous data. In the meantime…
Ms. Tessa Sandstrom, of the North Dakota Petroleum Council gave a speech reported by the Minot Daily News: Oil Boom drives on.
The article gives this info: Continue reading “Estimate of lifetime financial performance of one Bakken well”
North Dakota oil production back to setting new records
February production averaged 779,032 barrels per day. That is up 5.57% over January. It is only up 3.9% over October, which reflects the impact of bad weather this winter.
Spring thaw means load restrictions from what I’ve read. That means production will slow again soon.
Here’s my graph of monthly production:
(click to enlarge)
North Dakota oil production drops in January ‘13 because of bad weather
January production dropped to 738,022 BOPD from revised 770,111 in December and preceding high of 749,095 in October.
Comments follow the graph:
Continue reading “North Dakota oil production drops in January ‘13 because of bad weather”
Increase in Crude By Rail shows flexibility in economy – capitalism solves problems
When I started paying attention to the huge changes in energy production about a year and a half ago, one of the possible obstacles in North Dakota was the lack of pipelines to get the oil from fields to refineries in the Gulf Coast. The lack of capacity could constrain production and slow down drilling because there was no way to ship the oil. There wasn’t any way to store it for a couple of years until pipelines could be built.
Has that crippling problem stopped drilling?
No.
What happened?
Capitalism solved the problem.
Drop in rig count does not mean a drop in completed well count
Here’s another comment explaining why we are seeing a drop in the rig count at the same time as completed wells are increasing.
From Eagle Ford Shale – Lower Rig Count, But More Drilling in 2013 – Schlumberger.
Public companies have quarterly conference calls where they discuss their operations and outlooks. That releases to the investing community their thinking.
In fourth quarter conference call… Continue reading “Drop in rig count does not mean a drop in completed well count”
US oil production in 2012 increased by the largest amount ever. And 2013 will probably be better. – #16
Article in the Wall Street Journal indicates 2012 saw the largest increase in oil production since we started producing oil in 1859.
Here’s the lede from U.S. Oil-Production Rise is Fastest Ever:
U.S. oil production grew more in 2012 than in any year in the history of the domestic industry, which began in 1859, and is set to surge even more in 2013.
Background on Well Depletion in Early Years of Production – The Decline Rate
The shale wells using horizontal production have a very high drop off rate in production over the first few years. The initial production (IP) is very high which falls fast (depletion rate). The wells then sustain production at a low level (terminal decline) for a very long time.
That is a very simple summary of what I’ve learned in the last year.
Here is a more detailed explanation from Michael Filloon at Seeking Alpha – Bakken Update: EOG Wells Model EURs Over 2 Million Barrels Of Oil
Here is his first comment that is quite helpful to me:
Continue reading “Background on Well Depletion in Early Years of Production – The Decline Rate”
Amount of water to frack Bakken wells will be provided by excess from the Missouri river
Good background article on the amount and availability of water needed to frack all those wells in North Dakota from a post by Bruce Oksol at Million Dollar Way. He converts the amounts into acre-feet of water in his post, Update on Availability of Water Necessary to Frack Wells in the Bakken.
For future reference, here is the conversion calculation: Continue reading “Amount of water to frack Bakken wells will be provided by excess from the Missouri river”
Like a broken record: North Dakota oil production hits another high
October production stats are out. New graphs at end of this post.
Bakken-only daily production hit 682,393 for the month. Increase of 2.9% over revised September info (late reports arrive which result in increasing prior data). That’s the first month of over 20M barrels from Bakken.
Compared to December 2012 Bakken production, which was 469,769 bopd, that is an increase of 212,624 bopd in 10 months, a 45.3% increase in 10 months.
Statewide production is 747,239 bopd for the month.
Back of the envelope calculation for the dollar volume of oil revenue
Continue reading “Like a broken record: North Dakota oil production hits another high”
Timelapse view of drilling a well
Very cool video from Marathon Oil. Their description:
This timelapse video shows the drilling and fracking of a typical Marathon Oil well in the Eagle Ford, Texas. It was captured in the summer of 2012.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6_j7UkuzJTU#t=47s]
link if needed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6_j7UkuzJTU#t=47s
Hat tip – Carpe Diem
We don’t have to prosper from all that oil we found, world edition – Peak Oil #15
How much shale-gas is underground? The Wall Street has a great graphic in their article Global Gas Push Stalls (behind paywall).
Here are a few of the largest estimated deposits, in trillions of cubic feet:
- 862 – U.S.
- 388 – Canada
- 681 – Mexico
- 1,275 – China
- 774 – Argentina
- 187 – Poland
- 180 – France
- 396 – Australia
There’s huge amounts of shale gas waiting to be tapped. Enough to power economic and manufacturing revival in many countries. What we’ve seen in the U.S. market in terms of dropping prices (benefiting consumers a lot) and generating manufacturing growth could happen in Argentina, Poland, France, South Africa, Brazil, Algeria, and Libya.
But will it? Doesn’t look likely at the moment.
Continue reading “We don’t have to prosper from all that oil we found, world edition – Peak Oil #15”
700,000 barrels of oil a day out of North Dakota is no big deal. It’s all hype. – Peak Oil #14
Bruce Oskol, writing at Million Dollar Way, gives some background why he started that blog:
Again, one of several reasons for starting the blog a couple years ago was to counter the naysayers.
The original naysayers doubted the Bakken even existed — hard to believe, I know; and then, when the numbers started coming out of the Bakken, the naysayers said the Bakken was good for North Dakota but that was about it.
I particularly enjoy citing this post from another blog as an example: “Don’t believe it. There’s some oil to be gotten out of Bakken, and it’s going to be exploited. But the “bonanza” is nothing but hype.” — June 25, 2010.
“Some oil to be gotten out of the Bakken … Nothing but hype.” Wow.
I checked on the link and found Bakken Oil Hype at The American West at Risk blog.
Wow is right.
A year ago there was no way to get all that Bakken oil to market. Add creativity and ingenuity in a capitalist setting. Problem solved.
Pipelines take a long time to build. The rapid increase in oil coming out of the ground in North Dakota was leaving producers worried. How could they get all that oil to market? There was so much oil going through the existing pipeline to one location (Cushing) that there was a big discount on that oil.
People who wanted to make a buck stepped in. There’s now enough capacity to get all the oil to market and the discount for Bakken crude is gone.
That’s my summary of RBN Energy’s post, From a Famine of Pipeline to a Feast of Rail – Giving Thanks for Bakken Delivery.