We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Update: Bottom line on the back of the envelope – 1.9 year breakeven point.
I’ve been wanting to do some math on the economics of drilling. Now’s the time.
UPDATE – Revised for higher productivity of Bakken wells of 142 barrels per day.
Previous post provided some data from an article in the Chicago Tribune for Occidental Petroleum – Insight: Peak, pause or plummet? Shale oil costs at crossroads
The Chicago Tribune provides a few pieces of info for drilling costs in their aricle Insight: Peak, pause or plummet? Shale oil costs at crossroads
The article, by Selam Gebrekidan, gives some pricing data from Occidental Petroleum.
The cost of bringing one Bakken well into production has grown from an average $6.5 million in 2010 to $8.5 million in the first quarter this year, data from company reports and the state regulator show.
Break even point:
Efficient forms of fracking are also helping companies extract more oil from each well, lowering the break-even cost of production, now estimated between $55 and $70 a barrel.
For the economics of drilling, here is some market data: Continue reading “One set of data points for the cost of drilling in Bakken and the beauty of pricing signals”
I’ve come across a term that struck me as silly as soon as I read it – peak oil – That’s the idea that we’ve hit the maximum production and we will soon see production levels fall and then run out of oil.
The definition of proven reserves and a minimal knowledge of supply and demand makes it so obvious that we will never run out of oil. A glance at this blog or the blogs I cite should make the concept of peak oil laughable.
I need to explain this across several posts.
The whole concept of peak oil becomes more astoundingly ignorant with every additional paragraph I read on the issue. Conceptually, there is a big problem. Practially, developments in the last couple of years should kill off the concept permanently. Continue reading “We will never run out of oil. Peak oil #1”
The University of Texas at San Antonio released a report describing the Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale.
The study describes the same boom-time problems in the Eagle Ford field as exist in the Bakken area – restaurants struggling to hire enough staff to stay open, hotels fully booked, RV parks going up everywhere, and a crush of school children arriving for classes whose parents are living in an RV & not paying property taxes to fund the schools.
The report describes in detail that production increased dramatically from 2010 to 2011. It makes projections for 10 years out. Continue reading “Eagle Ford shale field production – economic impact report”
Fantastic primer on energy in the U.S. and world:
Hard Facts – An Energy Primer from the Institute for Energy Research.
I’ve just started reading it. Superb stuff. The first few tidbits that jump out at me:
Estimates that there is more recoverable oil in the U.S. than in Saudi Arabia:
The United States is home to the richest oil shale deposits in the world—estimates are there are about 1 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in U.S. oil shale deposits, nearly four times that of Saudi Arabia’s proved oil reserves.5
Vastly improved energy efficiency in the U.S. even with expansion in the per capita GDP:
• Energy use per person in the United States fell 12 percent between 1979 and 2010 from 359 million BTUs to 317 million BTUs per person.19
• Energy intensity—energy consumption per dollar of GDP—fell by 52 percent between 1973 and 2011.20
Are we running out of oil and gas we know about and can get to at economical price?
Let’s talk round numbers. Half a million barrels of oil a day from each of two new fields, Bakken and Eagle Ford. Minimal production just a few years ago. I’m making a totally wild guess that production will double in the next year or less.
There’s an old game of If such-and-such was its own country, it would be the Xth largest in the world. For example, if California were its own country, only six European countries would be larger in population.
Let’s play that game with just the Bakken and Eagle Ford fields.
Continue reading “Putting the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale fields into perspective”
There’s an astounding increase in oil and gas production from the Eagle Ford region in Texas in the last 15 months. That field starts north of Laredo and runs to the northeast.
Key tidbits from this post by Energy Information Administration – Eagle Ford oil and natural gas well starts rose sharply in first quarter 2012: Continue reading “Eagle Ford – Another amazing oil field to watch”
Found a source for lots of data on oil production in North Dakota. Mentioned this in an earlier post.
Other cool stats: Continue reading “More North Dakota oil production stats”
Courtesy of the credits on graphs from Mark Perry at Carpe Diem I found the mother lode of data for oil production in North Dakota.
Piece of cake to produce these cool graphs. Source of data: ND Monthly Oil Production Statistics
The following graphs show the daily production of oil in North Dakota. I’ve presented three time horizons, since that shows difference time perspectives.
Continue reading “Daily production graphs of North Dakota oil”
Walter Russell Mead points to an article here that says prospectors are spreading out across southern Kansas looking for oil. They are in the Mississippi Lime formation, roughly between Tulsa and Wichita and spreading to the west.
Two really cool comments in Mr. Mead’s post, What is the Matter with Kansas? If You Like Oil, Nothing.
First, here is a hint at the economics involved:
I have a couple of graphs of production in North Dakota here. In today’s Wall Street Journal, there is a good month-by-month graph from 2007 through 2011. You have to scroll down some, but you can find it here: Oil Boom Sparks River Fight.
After reading about oil production in North Dakota surpassing California here, I pulled some data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration here. Created a couple of graphs.
Took the annual average daily production in North Dakota for 2000 through 2010. Added the average monthly production for 2011. Came up with this graph. Continue reading “Graph of North Dakota oil production”
And North Dakota pulls into third place!
Federal stats show oil production in North Dakota was 535k bbl/d in December compared to 531k bbl/d in California. – Five states accounted for about 56% of total U.S.crude oil production in 2011
Check out the graph of monthly production. North Dakota has been accelerating since 2008 while Alaska and California have been declining for 10 years.
Continue reading “In December North Dakota passed California in oil production”
An article from NPR, Is U.S. Energy Independence Finally Within Reach?, explains the impact of all the new drilling could be making theU.S. energy independent soon.
The article says:
Energy self-sufficiency is now in sight,” says energy economist Phil Verleger. He believes that within a decade, the U.S. will no longer need to import crude oil and will be a natural gas exporter
Continue reading “U.S. energy independence on the horizon? Maybe soon.”
Here are a few stats on energy production in North Dakota from Mark Perry’s post, North Dakota Sets More Oil Productions Records in November; Above 500k Daily Barrels for First Time:
I will rearrange his comments. All of the following are quotes:
Let’s look at oil production in North Dakota:
…doubled from 246,000 barrels per day two years ago
Continue reading “Putting North Dakota oil production into perspective”