Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

14 wells on one site southwest of Williston, the Atlanta wells – part 2 of 2

14 well pad next to Missouri River with Williston in distance. Photo by James Ulvog.

14 well pad next to Missouri River with Williston in distance, looking northeast. To find the pad, look for the light horizontal patch to the left of the bridge after the road crosses the left side of the river. Photo by James Ulvog.

Previous post described a well pad southwest of Williston that holds 14 working wells. These are referred to as the Atlanta wells.

I got some great pictures of the site from the air and from the ground on my recent trip to Williston.  Million Dollar Way just updated the production information for the 14 wells. So, decided to bring all that info together.

If you want to find this mega-producer, the address is 4750 141st Ave. NW, Williston. If you want to drive there, be advised the road off the 85 shown on Google maps isn’t there anymore. You will need to take a nearby side street. Coordinates are 48.109623, -103.729930 if you want to look them up on Google maps.  The pad is north of the Missouri River and west of the US 85 bridge over the river. 

Statistical data

The Million Dollar Way has been following these wells for several years. Check out this post for background and production data:

Here is some statistical data for the wells.

Read more…

14 wells on one site southwest of Williston, the Atlanta wells – part 1 of 2

14 wells on one pad, southwest of Williston. Photo by James Ulvog.

14 wells on one pad, southwest of Williston. Photo by James Ulvog.

There is one site southwest of Williston that holds 14 working wells. They are referred to as the Atlanta wells. Check out the photo above and following.

If you want to find these things, the address is 4750 141st Ave. NW, Williston. Coordinates are 48.109623, -103.729930 if you want to look them up on Google maps. It is immediately to the north of the Missouri River close to the bridge on U.S. 85 crossing the river. 

On my trip to Williston over Thanksgiving 2016 I was able to take some aerial pictures since I flew in on United flight from Denver, meaning we flew in to Williston from the south. I was also able to drive out to the site and take pictures from a public road immediately north of the site.

Six wells on east side of pad. Photo by James Ulvog.

Six wells on east side of pad. Photo by James Ulvog.

Read more…

Employment activity picking up in Bakken

'Spose that more of those things are why employment is picking up in North Dakota? Photo by James Ulvog.

‘Spose that more of those things getting to work is why employment is picking up in North Dakota? Photo by James Ulvog.

A few indications appear that employment may be trending up in Williston and the surrounding area. Also, the direction of people moving into and out of the state finally shifted to net out-migration in 2016.

12/18 – The Million Dollar Way – Job Shortage Looming in The Bakken – Pointer to following article describing an uptick in hiring for oil jobs in Williston. Biggest specific increase is for fracking crews, which need around 45 or 65 people for each crew.

Read more…

If you like having gas for your car, food in the stores, and turning lights on after dark, here’s good news: Outlook for energy looking brighter.

Gonna' be seeing more of those in North Dakota soon. Photo by James Ulvog.

Gonna’ be seeing more of those in North Dakota soon. Photo by James Ulvog.

Outlook for energy production in the US is getting better and better. Might want to get out your sunglasses.

  • Low oil prices have spurred innovation amongst US drillers; file this under unintended consequences for OPEC.
  • Breakeven prices in US shale approaching that of OPEC producers; ponder that the breakeven price for Saudi Aramco is not the same as breakeven price for the Saudi government.
  • Overview of news in 2016 for oil & gas; good news for companies that survived the year.

12/2 – Tyler Morning Telegraph – Saudis awakened a sleeping giant when they declared war on fracking – Editorial says the Saudis made a serious mistake waking up the slumbering giant of fracking land. The artificially high prices allowed the frackers to get started. The artificially low prices forced them to innovate, cut costs, and start producing at breakeven points competitive to the OPEC giants. Not a good move.

Wouldn’t it be grand if that paragraph was the four-sentence history of fracking?

Production costs are half what they were two years ago.

Read more…

Surprise! Ancient humans were violent.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

There seems to be a vague consensus in our society that ancient peoples were peaceful and contented in their gathering and hunting.  Only in recent times have humans become greedy, war-like, and violent.

Some recent articles have challenged that assumption. That these reports are noteworthy demonstrates the bias that exists claiming only in relatively recent times have we humans become mean and hateful.

Read more…

U.S. increasing drone and aircraft resources in Western Africa

photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com.

The US is increasing its troops and surveillance resources in Africa.

10/10 – Strategy Page Intelligence: Long Eyes in Central Africa – (Yeah, I’ve been holding this post for a while.) The U.S. is building its second airbase in Africa, this time in Agadez, Niger. Aerial surveillance aircraft will fly out of the base along with unmanned UAVs, including armed UAVs, according to the article.

This base will serve growing intel needs in Libya, Chad, and Nigeria, according to the article. It is also next door to Mali so it can support intel needs there.

You can see Agadez in the following map:

Read more…

Largest denomination Venezuelan currency in circulation voided without any larger bills to replace them. #18

The poor living in those houses in Caracas are suffering greatly as a result of intentional government policies. Photo courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The poor living in those houses in Caracas are suffering greatly as a result of intentional government policies. Photo courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The devastation in Venezuela would be funny if this was a make-believe movie or some hair brained dystopian novel. Sadly, we are watching live as millions of real people suffer from deliberate government policies.

The current 100 Bolivar note has been voided while the higher denomination bills have not been put into circulation. Sounds like a good plan to make hungry people hungrier.

12/13 – Fusion – Venezuelans fight to protect their savings as government pulls bills from circulation – After the government gave short notice that the largest bill, the 100 Bolivar note, will be pulled from circulation, people across the country have gone into panic mode to get their currency deposited in a bank.

Anyone who can’t get their money deposited by today, Wednesday, has 10 days to exchange the bills at a government location.

Only problem with that concept?

The government hasn’t announced any authorized exchange locations.

12/16 – Bloomberg – Venezuelan Odyssey for Cash Endures With Delay of New Bills – Surprise, surprise! The new bills, up to a 20,000 Bolivar note, weren’t available on Thursday.

Read more…

A glimpse at the pricing of new jets

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Hey, I’m interested in the oddest things. Saw an article saying Boeing completed a deal for 80 aircraft at a list price approaching $17 billion.

I wondered, just what is the sticker price for a brand new jet?

If you are also curious, follow along with me as I take a quick look at the details.

12/12 – Wall Street Journal – Boeing Seals Nearly $17 Billion Iran Deal – The deal could get sidetracked by a change in administration, but they have a deal, subject to approval of a wide range of federal agencies.

The deal with Iran includes:

  • 15 – 777-300ER wide bodies
  • 15 – 777X, wide bodies, under development
  • 50 – 737 Max, single aisle obviously
  • 80 – total deal

Read more…

Newspaper revenue continues to fall off the cliff

DIfference between this guy and the newspaper industry is this guy has a rope. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Difference between this guy and the newspaper industry is this guy has a rope. Oh, and he is doing this intentionally. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Previously explained Still falling of a cliff, newspaper edition. The post has two graphs from Carpe Diem showing the collapse in newsroom employment levels and industry revenue.

Here are a few more articles describing the cliff that newspapers are falling off of.

(Yeah, I know. Bad grammar.)

10/27 – New York Times – More Wretched News for Newspapers as Advertising Woes Drive Anxiety – At the time the article was written (late October), layoffs had already taken place in the Times and Gannett, with layoffs expected at the WSJ.

Read more…

More graphs for background on North Dakota oil production in October 2016

Yesterday mentioned there was a big increase in oil production. Up 71,447 bopd in October, an increase of 7.35% for the month.

Here are a few more graphs to tell the story…

Value of monthly oil production, calculated by multiplying the rate cited in The Director’s Cut for average wellhead price in the state multiplied by average daily production. Amounts are in billions of dollars.

value-of-monthly-output-12-16

 

Average daily price in the state. This feeds the previous graph. Notice the substantial up tick in the last several months.

Read more…

North Dakota oil production increases 7.3% in October 2016

Those wells are just lined up so nice and neatly. Ponder the millions of gallons of gasoline each will generate. Photo by James Ulvog.

Those pads are just lined up so nice and neatly for mile after mile on each section line. Ponder the millions of gallons of gasoline each well will generate. Photo by James Ulvog.

Production saw a big increase in October. Output climbed from 971,760 in September (final) to 1,043,207 (preliminary). That is a 7% jump, moving production across the 1M point. That is a big increase. Why? Then some comparisons, then a couple of graphs.

Lynn Helms attributes the increase to operators opening up wells that had been throttled back and a few big wells coming on line, according a quote in the Wall Street Journal, North Dakota Crude Oil Output Rises to a Five-Month High. Yeah, the WSJ quoted Mr. Helms. They ran an article the day of his press conference to discuss the monthly report. How ‘bout that?

That is an increase of 71,447 bopd, the largest increase in one month going all the way back to 1989. Other months with increases of 40K bopd or more were:

  • 54,065 – September 2014
  • 52,099 – June 2014
  • 50,845 – July 2013
  • 42,653 – February 2013

That is an increase of 7.35%. Going back to 1989, the only months with a higher increases on a percentage basis were:

  • 10.2% – July 2011 – up 39,351 bopd
  • 10.6% – February 2010 – up 24,958 bopd

Some graphs…

Read more…

Another round of intentionally caused suffering in Venezuela as government makes largest denomination bill illegal- #17

One graph illustrates the inflation rate in Venezuela and the other represents economic performance. Image courtesy of Adobe stock.

One graph illustrates the inflation rate in Venezuela and the other represents economic performance. Image courtesy of Adobe stock.

Government will withdraw all 100 Bolivar notes from circulation after Wednesday, tomorrow. The level of suffering will increase even further.

12/4 – AP – Venezuela to issue larger bill as currency continues to melt – Article says the central bank has announced they will issue bills in the 500 to 20,000 Bolivar range. This follows up on previous reports saying they were planning to do so.

The exchange rate is now 4,587 Bolivars to the dollar.

Article says that is a deterioration by a factor of five in the last year.

The official exchange rates are 10 and 663 to the dollar.

12/10 – BBC News – Venezuela seizes Christmas toys to distribute to poorRead more…

Updates on global oil production – cuts from outside OPEC, expectation of missing OPEC targets, and declining China output

Expect to see more of those soon. By the way, room for several more pump jacks on that site. Photo by James Ulvog.

Expect to see more of those pump jacks soon. By the way, there is room for several more wells on that site. With all those storage tanks on site, there are going to be a lot more wells there eventually. Photo by James Ulvog.

This oil situation getting more complicated:

  • Saudi Arabia is going to diversify their economy. By moving into refining?
  • Consensus is only half of the OPEC cut will be realized
  • Non-OPEC producers agree to 588K bopd cut
  • Output from China is in natural decline – 300K bopd drop in 2016 and another 200K bopd in 2017

What diversification?  12/1 – Wall Street Journal – Saudis Wager On Higher Oil Prices to Drive Economic Diversification – The new leader of Saudi Arabia has a long-term plan to transition the economy away from exporting crude oil towards an entrepreneurial economy. According to this article, the first major step in diversifying the economy is a major push into refining and mining.

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think that expanding from exporting crude oil to refining crude oil is much of a diversification. Likewise, it is not a big jump to extracting minerals from the ground when the current focus is extracting oil from the ground.

Read more…

Random updates from Bakken

A new well is likely to produce about a million barrels of oil, compared to half a million from a well drilled several years ago. Photo by James Ulvog.

A new well is likely to produce about a million barrels of oil, compared to half a million from a well drilled several years ago. Photo by James Ulvog.

A few articles of late:

  • 2 hotels closed in Williston
  • Ground broken for new Williston airport
  • Each Bakken well now expected to produce a million or 1.5 million barrels of oil

9/27 – Williston Herald at Dickinson Press – Two Williston hotels closing their doors – An owner of two hotels with total of 105 rooms will be closing them this week. Both are on the market, for $3.0M and $3.2M. One of them reportedly had drugs sales and prostitution on site during the boom.

Don’t worry too much about capacity. There’s a huge number of hotels open in Williston, especially compared to three or four years ago. Also, those hotels won’t be going anywhere. When the drilling picks up, someone else can pick up those empty hotels for a real bargain. When the space is needed, they will be open.

10/10 – Amy Dalrymple at Oil Patch Dispatch – Williston Breaks Ground on New $240 Million Airport – Construction is underway for the new airport. It will have a 7,500 foot runway and four gates at the terminal. The new airport will be able to handle planes that can hold 165 passengers instead of the 50 passenger jets in use at the current airport.

Currently there are five daily flights into Williston, which is down from 11 at the busiest time of the boom.

12/4 – Million Dollar Way – The Bakken: How Things Stand Near the End of the Year 2016 –  The productivity increase in the last few years is staggering. Here are a few tidbits from the article, which is a survey of recent quarterly releases from the drilling companies.

Estimated Ultimate Recovery, EUR, is the amount of oil to be drawn from the well, I believe with only primary recovery. A few years ago (2011), the typical EURs were 550K barrels from middle Bakken and 450K from Three Forks bench. Read more…

Possible new technology to extract oil shale – Peak Oil #50

In a decade or so, will we get to see thousands of these above the Green River Formation? Photo of Bakken pump jack by James Ulvog.

In a decade or so, will we get to see thousands of these above the Green River Formation? Photo of Bakken pump jack by James Ulvog.

Here’s another brain stretcher for you in the realm of the open frontier in energy – how about using microwave to tease oil shale out of the ground?

11/4 – Oxy – Move Over Fracking, There’s a New Technology in Town – First, keep in mind that oil shale is not the same as shale oil. I have to wrap my brain around that every time the topic of oil shale comes up.

Shale oil is crude oil that is trapped in rocks. Fracking is the way to get shale oil out of the ground.

Oil shale is sort-of-like crude oil stuff (actually kerogen, but that label doesn’t register for me) that has to be heated, or cooked, out of the rock. Usually done by strip mining then cooking the stuff. Other option is steam injection to liquefy the oil shale which then can be pulled out of the well. Fracking won’t do the trick.

Try this on for size: Using microwaves comparable to the power of 500 household machines to heat the rock turning the oil shale liquid. The water, which is mixed in with the kerogen will be converted to steam, which in turn will help pull the liquefied oil to the wellbore.

So where could this be used?

Read more…

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