Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

28 Jun 2019
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More tips for people planning a felony. Don’t do it.

This is not a wise strategy for addressing the judge who will preside over your criminal trial. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Previously mentioned several tips for people planning to commit a felony. For example, don’t take your location tracking fitbit with you while you carry out a contract assassination. Why? The location data will testify you were at the scene of the crime the very instant the crime was committed.

Some more helpful tips.

Tip #10

As you are preparing your case as you represent yourself and approach your first day of trial for threatening to kill someone and ignoring a restraining order, don’t sent a written death threat to the judge who is trying your case. Reported in Williston Herald on 2/25/19: Man accused of threats sends threatening letter to judge before first day of trial.

A man facing trial for terrorizing and violating a restraining order (class C felony and class A misdemeanor) for harassing a women is representing himself at trial. During the three hours that constituted the first day of trial, he did not question any jurors, did not make an opening statement, and only asked one question of one witness with said question obviously irrelevant to his case.

In the days before trial starting, the guy sent a letter to the judge saying that the judge is now on the list of people that the defendant will kill.

Read more…

Posted in Other stuff and tagged ,
15 Jun 2019

Last 12 months are best ever for oil production in North Dakota. Oh, what peak oil?

Photo by David Ulvog. Used with permission.

Record high level of oil production in the state was 1,403,844 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in January 2019. April production averaged 1,391,188 bopd (preliminary).

Before the slump in prices and drilling, the record high was 1,229.572 bopd in December 2014.

Since production bottomed out at an average of 942,322 bopd in December 2016, production has been climbing.

Production in June 2018 and every month since then has been above the December 2014 level. Even with winter weather, production has been in the neighborhood of the 1.4M bopd level for the last eight months, apart from small drop in February.

Graph of average production in the state and Bakken formation since 2008:

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , , | Leave a comment
27 May 2019

Memorial Day: gratitude for those who did not return

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

 

To family and friends of those who did not return, I humbly say:

My deepest condolences on your loss.

From someone who appreciates the price paid for the freedom I cherish everyday, please accept my thank you on behalf of your loved one who paid the price that my family and I can live free.

“Thank you” is so little, but it is all I have to give you.

 

 

“Here rests in honored glory an American soldier known but to God” Tomb of Unknown Soldier 002 – Arlington National Cemetery – 2012 by Tim Evanson is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

 

 

Rosecrans National Cemetery, San Diego, California. Photo by James Ulvog.

Posted in Pondering | Leave a comment
04 May 2019

Guessing game is open again for when oil production in North Dakota will hit 2 million barrels a day

Five reasons North Dakota is second largest oil-producing state in the U.S. Photo by James Ulvog.

First guess I’ve seen since the price slump is for the state to pass the 2 million barrels a day threshold in 2030, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. Reported by Inforum on 5/4/19: Bigger than some of OPEC: North Dakota on track to reach 2 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.

For quite some time I have dialed back my focus on Bakken, so there may be other estimates or guesses out there. This is the first one I’ve noticed.

North Dakota is the second largest oil-producing state in the U.S at 1.4M barrels of oil per day (bopd). Texas continues in first place at 3.49M bopd.

If North Dakota were somehow to join OPEC, Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , | Leave a comment
16 Mar 2019

Oil production in North Dakota in January 2019 only a smidgeon below record level in prior month.

There is another pumpjack to the right of the most visible one. There are two more on the distant horizon. Photo by James Ulvog.

Preliminary production in January is 339 barrels a day below the revised amount for December. Here is how close January’s output came to the record high in December:

  • 1,402,741 – December 2018 – record high
  • 1,402,402 – January 2019 – preliminary

Production data usually changes in the month following initial release. The pattern I’ve noticed is a data for a well or three arrives after the cutoff for the monthly report. So, late reporting for a few wells could push the January 2019 data into record territory.

Before showing a graph of production, wanted to bring in some new data reported by the state regulator. The “Director’s Report” lists the average price for sweet crude in the state and has done so for many years. The report just started listing the average of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pricing for the month.

There is a discount from the price realized in North Dakota compared to WTI because of the cost of transport. That spread, so I understand, has fallen since the DAPL was completed. Here is a revised graph of average price in ND to include an average of WTI:

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , | Leave a comment
25 Feb 2019

Volume of 2018 oil production in North Dakota hits another record; total value rising.

Photo by James Ulvog.

Total production of oil in North Dakota in 2018 set a record as did the average daily production.  Prices have recovered from their low which means the value of that production is going up but not yet close to setting a record.

All of the following data is from a spreadsheet I maintain, with the raw data pulled from various reports published by the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

Average daily production rose to 1,249,049 bopd in 2018, up from 1,081,543 bopd in 2017. That is an increase of 167,505 bopd, or 15.5%. Previous record was 1,184,009 bopd in 2015.

Average daily production:

 

Total production for the year was 455,902,738 barrels, an increase of 61.1M barrels over the 394.8M produced in 2017.

Total production over the years:

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , , , | Leave a comment
21 Feb 2019

Well completions by year in North Dakota

Photo by James Ulvog.

While pulling together the graphs of oil production in North Dakota for 2018, I wondered what the trend of well completions might look like.

So, pulled a graph together. Primary source of my data is a spreadsheet I maintain of the monthly information released by the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources. Well completions is one of many data points accumulated on the spreadsheet.

Read more…

Posted in Change around us, Energy and tagged , , | Leave a comment
19 Feb 2019

In 2018, North Dakota oil production broke record level of output 6 times during 8 months.

Two things to notice. Lots of space between pumpjacks means there will eventually be several more wells on that pad. Lack of any storage tanks means the pad is tied directly to an underground pipeline. Photo by James Ulvog.

Oil production in North Dakota hit an all time high of an average of 1,229,572 barrels of oil per day (bopd) back in December 2014.  The effort by Saudi Arabia to flood the market in order to drive down prices in order to collapse the US shale industry slowed production in North Dakota but didn’t succeed in killing the shale sector.

Output fell to a low of 942,322 bopd in December 2017. Output then started rising with a typical slowdown in winter of 2017/2018.  After the winter lull production again climbed.

In 2018, producers in North Dakota broke the record level of production six times in the last eight months. The record-breaking months:

Read more…

Posted in Change around us, Energy and tagged , , , , | Leave a comment
18 Feb 2019

North Dakota oil production hits another record in December 2018

Photo by James Ulvog.

Average production of crude oil in North Dakota rose 1.79% in December 2018, setting yet another record. The production in December was 1,401,385 bopd (preliminary).

At the end of 2017, production was 1,182,836 ave bopd (final). In one year, that is an increase of 218,549 bopd, or a whopping 18.5%.

Statewide and Bakken shale production has been trending up sharply.  The rapid rise since last winter’s lull is clear.

 

For a longer term perspective, check out the average daily production since 1990:

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , | Leave a comment
21 Jan 2019
1 Comment

Friendly tip to people planning a felony: don’t do it. And if you still want to, you might want to avoid planning your escapade with the internet or your phone.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

If you are planning to do something that our society says is a felony, or even thinking about it, please don’t.

Please change your plans. You won’t like the result.

If you are still pondering something that our society says is a felony, or even thinking about it, you might want to avoid using electronic devices that record your planning. Definitely don’t use your phone in commission of the actual crime.

Here are a few examples of what not to do, for amusement of people who are inclined to read my blog.  People likely to go ahead with felonious plans probably are not in my audience.

 

Tip #1

Don’t take along your location recording fitness device while conducting reconnaissance to plan an assassination and definitely don’t take it along for the ‘hit’:  Runners World -1/17/19 – This Runner is a Hitman. His GPS Watch Tied Him to a Mob Boss Murder. 

A competitive distance runner who moon lighted as a contract hit man took along his fitbit watch as he conducted recon and planning runs for two different assassinations. Also wore it for one of the actual hits. Police looked at the recorded location information on the watch which showed him making recon runs and placed him at the scene of the hit.

Result: Life in prison.

 

Tip #2

Don’t conduct an internet search with questions of whether your plans are illegal: Cleveland.com – 10/19/18 – Brooklyn Woman falsely accused Parma Heights police chief of rape, investigators say.

Read more…

Posted in Other stuff, Technology and tagged , ,
10 Jan 2019

Deserter from the U.S. Air Force apprehended and tried.

William Howard Hughes, Jr. (U.S. Air Force photo)

A 1983 deserter from the U.S. Air Force was arrested in 2018 and has now been tried and sentenced.

I was advised today by the Air Force Office of Special Investigation that the now-former officer has been tried and dismissed from the service. I’m working to find out the results of his trial and his current status. As more details are learned, updates will be posted.

(Cross posted from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

Desertion

Back in July 1983, while the Cold War was still running, USAF Captain William Howard Hughes Jr. deserted after returning to Albuquerque from a TDY in Europe. He did not report to his duty station on August 1, 1983.

He was last seen making 19 withdraws from his bank account totaling $28,500. That may have been around a year’s gross salary at the time. Would have allowed him to run and hide for a while as he worked on his new identity. His car was abandoned at the Albuquerque airport.

Read more…

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21 Dec 2018

Drilling and completion results in North Dakota through October 2018

Drilling rig used for training by Nabors Drilling. Photo by James Ulvog.

For some details on the production effort behind the rise in oil production in North Dakota, check out the number of rigs in operation and some indications of the results.

Number of rigs has been trending up since late 2016. This is response to increasing oil prices. The rig count dropped dramatically in 2015, which was OPEC’s goal in dropping prices. The drastic increases in efficiency of drilling mean the count of rigs in 2012 through 2014 is not comparable to the current count. Probably should be in two different graphs.

 

With the recent drop in prices, a larger number of the drilled wells are not immediately completed. Instead they are put in the fracklog category, essentially placed on the shelf as inventory awaiting completion until prices rise.

Read more…

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19 Dec 2018

Other players in the Silk Road drug sales website face justice

Three more perps in the Silk Road website stood in front of the above and were awarded their well deserved earnings. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Several other players in the Silk Road gun/explosive/drug/body part bazaar have worked their way through the U.S. justice system.

Some info on their involvement and current status follows after mentioning Mr. Ulbricht’s final appeal was denied.

Ross Ulbrickt

As an aside, the Cyberscoop article below points to the following:

6/28/18 – Reason – Sadly, Ross Ulbrickt’s Case Will Not Be Heard by the Supreme Court – His appeal was denied by the Supreme Court on 6/28/18. That is his last opportunity for an appeal.

Article raises the troublesome procedural question that the sentencing judge used allegations that were not proved in court to reach his decision. Specifically, the judge used allegations of the murder-for-hire schemes which were discussed but on which Mr. Ulbrickt was not convicted, according to his attorney’s comments in the appeal.

Apparently there were some warrant-less searches at issue, which the USSC did not take up.

Andrew Michael Jones, Gary Davis, Peter Phillip Nash

7/13/18 – Cyberscoop – Alleged Silk Road employee extradited from Ireland to U.S. – Gary Davis, allegedly a/k/a Libertas, is accused of being a high level administrator in Silk Road. Article links to previously sealed indictment which accused Andrew Michael Jones, a/k/a “Inigo”, Gary Davis, a/k/a “Libertas” and Peter Phillip Nash, allegedly who had four aliases. (Inigo? Seriously? What is the deal with all the slander of the all-time classic comedy Princess Bride?)

Read more…

Posted in Other stuff, Pondering and tagged , | Leave a comment
17 Dec 2018

Estimated value of oil production in North Dakota through October 2018

Photo by James Ulvog.

Production of oil in North Dakota has been shooting up. Prices have dropped recently. What does that look like in terms of the value of oil produced?

Multiplying the monthly production by the average sweet prices in the state results in the following estimated value of monthly production in the state:

 

There is a discount in sweet crude prices in the state compared to West Texas Intermediate due to transportation cost.  The prices realized in North Dakota are:

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , | Leave a comment
15 Dec 2018

North Dakota oil production hits another record in September 2018 and again in October

Photo by James Ulvog.

Average production rose 5.2% in September 2018, hitting a new record, then rose another 2.4% in October for another record level. The production in October was just under 1.4 million bopd.

At the end of 2017, production was 1,182,836 ave bopd. In September average was 1,359,284 (final) and October was 1,391,877 (prelim).

Some production graphs – – –

Statewide and Bakken shale production has been trending up sharply.  Last winter’s lull is quite visible. The output curve is starting to take on the rapid growth angle visible back in 2012 and 2013.

 

For a longer term perspective, check out the average daily production since 1990:

Read more…

Posted in Energy and tagged , , | Leave a comment

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