Outrun Change – Page 2 – We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Rap video explaining artificially low interest rates lead to turmoil and recession.

Rap video from a few years ago showing the failed arguments for Keynesian economics and the consequences of messing around with the money supply and artificially forcing interest rates low.

Pushing down interest rates leads to mal-investment in projects that are not really good plans. When interest rates eventually rise, lots of plans need to be abandoned.

The results? “Bailouts, payouts, and machinations.”

The ‘cheap credit dog’ will come back to bite hard.

When the economy is flooded with trillions of dollars during COVID, the fully expected inflation forces the Fed to raise interest rates, in turn dropping vaue of bonds and then in turn tanking the value of the securities portfolio of every bank in the country. No wonder the FDIC and FRB think Silicon Valley is just the first bank to go.

We saw it in 2008. We are seeing it again today.

What is a “militia?”

The 10 Key Campaigns of the American Revolution by editor Edward Lengel and a collection of contributing authors is a delightful description of key fights in the battle for American liberty and freedom.

A side discussion in the text is pertinent to the ongoing debate over the Second Amendment.

The book explains every free male in the colonies from the age of 16 up to 60 was required to report annually for training as a part of the militia.

Some tidbits from the American Revolution.

Re-enactment of Battle of Monmouth. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The American Revolution is a delight to study. A few tidbits from Edward Lengel and the contributing authors in The 10 Key Campaigns of the American Revolution are relevant to this blog. Some fun stuff:

Perseverance in face of ongoing reversals.
Paying Continental soldiers in specie, that means silver.

Next post will discuss What is a “militia?”

Perseverance in face of ongoing reversals.

Author points out George Washington had more losses in battle than wins. In spite of that he led the patriot forces to victory over the greatest world power of the time.

An overarching feature that shows throughout the book is perseverance in face of trials, tribulations, and battlefield defeats.

Dangers in crossing the Atlantic Ocean during the 1700s.

The Wagram (1810) – a first-rate 118-gun ship of the line of the French Navy, of the Ocean type. Illustration of the 19th century. Image couresy of Adobe Stock.

In addition to the agonizingly long time it took to cross the Atlantic Ocean in the time of sail, the journey carried risk of sickness, especially from scurvy caused by the lack of fresh vegetables.

Edward Lengel provides an illustration in his book, The 10 Key Campaigns of the American Revolution.

On May 2, 1780, the first wave of French troops left France, arriving in Newport Harbor on July 11, 1780. The trip took 70 days.

Stuff you can now safely say about COVID: the virus came from a lab leak.

There are many things you could not say in public two or three years ago, all of which are now safe to say. Here is a starting point of the list of things you can now talk about in the open:

The virus came from a lab leak.

As I find articles to further develop the issues now say to say, I will have further discussion.

The virus came from a lab leak.

This was crazy talk three years ago but is slowly becoming accepted: the most likely place the COVID-19 virus came from was a Chinese research laboratory. Oh, by the way, said lab was funded in part by Dr. Fauci’s department.

Stuff you can now safely say about COVID: natural immunity works.

There are many things you could not say in public two or three years ago, all of which are now safe to say. Here is a starting point of the list of things you can now talk about in the open:

Natural immunity works.
Masks don’t work.
The virus came from a lab leak. (next post)

A slow trickle of news reports are showing that lots of the crazy, coo-coo bird, nutzo, conspiracy theory wackiness you heard from your friends two or three years ago were actually correct. My friends deemed nuts by society who were saying these things were right.

Natural immunity works.

2/27/23 – Wall Street Journal – Three Years Late, the Lancet Recognizes Natural Immunity

Research report by Lancet has one surprise and two not-at-all-surprises.

Stuff you can now safely say about COVID: masks don’t work.

Of the above five preventions, we have long known that #2 was not needed. We now know #1, #3, and #4 also had no value. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

There are many things you could not say in public two or three years ago, all of which are now safe to say. Here is a starting point of the list of things you can now talk about in the open:

Masks don’t work.
Natural immunity works. (next post)
The virus came from a lab leak. (upcoming post)

There is a disturbing pattern emerging, which further corrodes credibility of the entire public health sector.

A slow trickle of news reports are showing that lots of the crazy, coo-coo bird, nutzo, conspiracy theory wackiness from two or three years ago was actually correct. Turns out my wacko friends who were saying these things were right.

Masks don’t work.

Previously discussed this study as covered by a couple of other reports:

2/12/23 – Research shows no identifiable benefit from wearing masks.

From the New York Times (!), an opinion piece from Brett Stevens:

2/21/23 – Brett Stevens opinion in The New York Times – The Mask Mandates Did Nothing. Will Any Lessons Be Learned?

Article cites a study which analyzed 78 research reports, all of which were randomized control trials. Researchers say those little paper masks we were wearing for so long made little or no difference. They can find no evidence for positive impact.

How about those expensive N-95 masks? Same thing. No impact.

What about those studies which did show masks made a difference which were cited as proof positive that anyone who disagreed mask efficacy was a Neanderthal?

Excess deaths – More people are dying that expected based on historical average. Why?

Reports are now surfacing there are far more people dying then we would expect now the pandemic is mostly behind us. This discussion will bring up merely two articles calling attention to this issue.

First article points out there are excess deaths after the pandemic has wound down. Second article points out there were excess deaths in California during the pandemic.

I suggest we need to look at government policies during the pandemic as the driving force behind the excess deaths.

Normally, one can look at the five-year average of deaths and make an estimate of the number of people who will die this year. It is called “excess deaths” when the actual deaths are above the five-year average.

Three years after the start of the pandemic there are significant excess deaths in countries with believable statistics available.

9/2/22 – Next Big Future – Unknown Cause of 1 Million Excess Deaths per Year – Article from last September points out there are widespread excess deaths, even after allowing for Covid deaths.

Article says there were 18% excess deaths in the first two years of the pandemic. Now that the deaths from Covid have dropped, the overall death rate should be back to the historical average.

Yet that is not what is happening.

Author points out that England and Wales were showing 1000 excess deaths weekly in 14 of the previous 15 weeks. None of those are from Covid.

Excess deaths are running in the 10% up to 20% level around the world.

Excess death rates are 8% in the US and 20% in Brazil.

Research shows no identifiable benefit from wearing masks.

There is a surge of articles denouncing pandemic policy along with emerging research showing the destruction caused by intentional government policy.

I have made note of many of these articles and hope to start discussing them.

In this post:

Metastudy of 78 randomized control experiments finds masks have no benefit.
Pro-mask is anti-science. Anti-mask is pro-science. (Pro-mask is actually a religion.)

Our political, public health, educational, and religious leaders have much to answer for.

2/10/23 – The Spectator – I’m pro science. That’s why I’m anti-mask – The former brand president at Levi Strauss was hounded out of her job because she had the audacity to ask, in a company that presumably doesn’t actually hire any toddlers, whether a mandatory mask for toddlers was harmful.

She was accused of being “anti-science.” Oh the horror! Off with her head!!

Research from the Cochran study, which will be discussed more later, analyzed 78 studies covering 1 million people. The conclusion?

Same-Meal-at-the-Same-Restaurant price index. I don’t even want to calculate the increase for this meal.

My reaction every time I see the total on the grocery store cash register.
Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Before leaving California I provided several illustrations of the actual price increases at a specific restaurant for the identical meal. Since moving to Williston, North Dakota I don’t have a lot of good data points yet. We’re still going to different restaurants and ordering different items so I don’t have a useful point-to-point comparison.

Yesterday my son gave me a painful example.

Last March he ordered one foot-long sub sandwich, a 6 inch sandwich, and one soda.

The price?

$13.26.

Yesterday he ordered the exact same items from the same restaurant.

The price?

My newest hero: Navy pilot finally recognized for downing 4, count ‘em 4, Soviet jets in one dogfight

All photos by James Ulvog taken on the U.S.S. Midway museum in San Diego, California.

Official records reported Capt. E. Royce Williams shot down one North Korean fighter on November 18, 1952. He was also credited with one “probable.” This was back during the Korean War. He was awarded Silver Star Medal at the time.

We now know there was far more to the story.

He actually shot down four fighters.

Oh yeah, they weren’t North Korean MiGs flown by North Koreans.

They were Soviet fighters. With Soviet markings. Stationed inside the USSR. Flown by Russian pilots.

No more 747s will be rolling off the production line.

ST MARTIN, ANTILLES – JULY 19, 2013: Boeing 747 aircraft on therunway at Princess Juliana International Airport in Netherlands Antilles in July 19, 2013 in St Martin.

The half century production run of the iconic 747 has come to an end.

On December 6, 2022 the last 747s that will be built rolled off the bone production line in Everett, Washington.

Number 1,574 in the production run is finished. It will be test flown by Boeing pilots, painted, then delivered to the customer, a cargo and charter carrier – not a major airline.

Nuclear code making equipment put on museum display.

I-7 launch facility, assigned to 91st Missile Wing at Minot AFB. Photo by James Ulvog.

Apparently there has been a massive overhaul in the technology behind codes used to launch nuclear weapons. Changes are significant enough the equipment used to generate codes and manufacture the physical documents have been put on display at the National Cryptologic Museum.

Dear Veterans, I accepted a thank you on your behalf.

To all veterans pulling alert today, standing watch, filling supply orders, or who have not gotten a “thank you” lately, please know your service and sacrifice is appreciated. I again accepted a thank you on your behalf.

This summer, my cousin Sonia and her quilting group honored me with the gift of a gorgeous quilt. They gave it to me in appreciation for my service in the U.S. Air Force so many years ago. I pulled underground alert on the plains of South Dakota to keep the Evil Empire at bay. I had a small part holding back the Soviet bear.

Photos here don’t do full justice to the quilt, which I shall long cherish. My wife and I recently moved into our new home, so I have not yet be able to properly hang in on a wall.

For all those who have served, please know this lovely quilt expresses the appreciation felt by a group of quilters in Minnesota for all those who have stood on the front lines, kept the supplies moving, preparing those going to line service, or otherwise helped keep the U.S. military machine working.

To all of you, I say thank you.

A hearty thank you to all of you from my cousin, her group, and many more grateful Americans you will never meet.

I extend a hearty thank you to my cousin and her group.

About that 95% effective vaccine… (part 1)

The Covid vaccination is 95% effective against infection.

That is what we were told by every public health official and media outlet in order to persuade us to get the shots.

95%.

It has been so effective we should get a booster. And another booster. And now there is a brand new fifth booster, because the previous four worked so well.

This is the first in a series of posts explaining the effectiveness statements were not only false, but were known to be false at the time.

We start with a survey of how incredibly effective the vaccine has been in 2022:

CDC director

10/31/22 – Center for Disease Control – Update on CDC Director and COVID-19 – I cannot describe this more lastingly than merely quoting the straight line offered by the CDC press release: