Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

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A-4 Skyhawk.

Photo by James Ulvog.

The A-4 Skyhawk was an attack aircraft used by the Navy during the Vietnam war. For your viewing pleasure, check out these photos of the restored aircraft on the flight deck of the Midway Museum.

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The shutdown will be relaxed, one way or another.

Time to use the other side of those signs. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

If the politicians don’t start relaxing the lockdown and letting people pay their rapidly accumulating bills, bunches of people are going to take the initiative and do so on their own.

I sense there is a limited time for those in power to start loosening the extreme restrictions or people are going to start ignoring parts of the rules.

At a deeper level, the concern I have is what’s referred to as the “social contract.” Government gets its authority from consent of the governed.

If a large number of people get to the point of concluding the rules in places like California and Virginia are unnecessarily severe and are causing more health, mental, social, and economic damage than they prevent, people will conclude our leaders have broken the contract.

If we get to that point, respect for law and respect for public officials will decline. That is not a good place to go.


Next two articles point out a small number of people who have already reached that conclusion:

4/20/20 – Daily Wire – “Social Shredding”: Defiant Residents Grab Shovels, Dirt Bikes After Cali Authorities Dump Tons of Sand In Skateparks For ‘Social Distancing’ – Officials in San Clemente California noticed teenagers were committing the grave sin of skating in the city’s skate park. Well, that is patently unacceptable, so the city dumped 37 tons of sand into the skate park in an effort to shut down the skating. Since the park is at the beach, sand was readily available.

Well, the city officials did not take into consideration the incredible level of creativity present in humans, especially Americans.

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Details behind North Dakota oil production.

With a huge pad, lots of storage tanks, yet only three pumpjacks, notice how much room there is for more wells. Photo by James Ulvog.

Some background data for oil in North Dakota provides insight for the production info.

Drilling rigs have become more productive in recent years. In the past, say before 2014, the number of rigs directly tied into production levels. Now, with a variety of technologies, such as multi-well pads for example, the drilling time is down so the wells per rig are up.

A far lower number of rigs is needed to keep new well production rolling.

Rig count since 2010:

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Sharing of the OPEC production cuts: 4.6% across the board except for Iran

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub before they merged into Adobe Stock.

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub before they merged into Adobe Stock.

The Million Dollar Way blog has the details I was wondering about earlier: how the production cut is going to be shared amongst the OPEC members.

A post at MDW, Notes From All Over, Mostly Politics, includes a table from @JKempEnergy. The table gave a reference and led me to the OPEC press release giving the breakout.

Here are the details from the press release. The “reference” is the baseline agreed upon, which is  referred to as the “Reference Production Level” in the press release. The change by country is listed. I calculated the percentage change for each country. Here are the changes:

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To all those serving in the American military or who have served

Image courtesy Adobe Stock.

Image courtesy Adobe Stock.

I was on active duty in the U.S. Air Force a mere four years. I never got within 3,000 miles of hostile action against American forces. To top it off, my small contribution was decades ago.

As a result, I am squeamishly uncomfortable accepting the appreciation when someone tells me “Thanks for your service.”

It took me a few years to get to a place where I could accept those comments.

I now graciously and proudly accept those expressions of appreciation from my fellow Americans, not because of what I did so long ago, but on behalf of all those soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen who do not have someone looking them in the eye, shaking their hand, and saying “thanks.”

So for all those troops pulling alerts, standing watch, scheduling logistics, or taking fire, please know that vast numbers of Americans are grateful for your service.

I pass on to you their thanks.

You are there, not here, so many people have thanked me instead. It is you they are really thanking.

While today we remember with gratitude those who did not return, I hope those who are serving today hear the appreciation.

Do you really want to give up your freedom and become a serf?

What could possibly go wrong with giving a leader the power to fix all our problems? There is a great chance said leader will use that power to force people to fix things. You could wind up being told in microscopic detail every single thing you can do.

That would merely cost you your freedom and make you a serf.

In musical terms, that might be called, oh, perhaps something like Serfdom USA:

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Update on wind and solar power (#35)

Photo taken at altitude while flying over North Dakota. Look closely to see strings of wind turbines, visible at 20,000 feet. Photo by James Ulvog.

Photo taken at altitude while flying over North Dakota. Look closely to see strings of wind turbines scarring the land, visible at 20,000 feet. Photo by James Ulvog.

Between some vacation, talking about things I learned in North Dakota, and following the trial of now-convicted human trafficker Keith Graves, I’ve not been talking about the devastation caused by wind and solar power for quite a while. Not to worry, there is a long backlog of articles on the destructive power of wing toasters and slice-and-dicers on my list of things to discuss.

Here are a few articles on dilute and intermittent wind power that caught my eye. Update on solar to follow in a few days.

7/31 – Million Dollar Way – Wind Energy Unable to Meet California’s EV DemandsRead more…

How much wealth was in the Roman treasury in 49 B.C.? How about annual tax revenue under Augustus?

(Cross-posted from a post on 8/22/14 from my other blog, Attestation Update. I’m accumulating all my posts on transportation time and prices in the past here on this blog. Someday plan to link them together to tell a larger story.)

Hadn’t thought about that question too much, but when Jacob Soll mentioned it in his book, The Reckoning: Financial Accountability and the Rise and Fall of Nations, it got me thinking.

He gives the following info:

In his Natural History, Pliny states that in 49 BCE , the year Caesar crossed the Rubicon, the Roman treasury contained 17,410 pounds of gold, 22,070 pounds of silver, and in coin, 6,135,400 sesterces.

Soll, Jacob (2014-04-29). The Reckoning: Financial Accountability and the Rise and Fall of Nations (Kindle Locations 276-277). Basic Books. Kindle Edition.

I don’t think in terms of pounds of gold or silver and I don’t know what a sesterce is or what it is worth. But I do know how to search the ‘net.

I share this on my Nonprofit Update blog and cross-post it here at Attestation Update because I enjoyed it and think it might be some fun trivia for accountants and people working in the faith-based community.

By the way, Prof Soll’s book is superb. Just got started reading it and think I will find lots of little tidbits to share. More on that idea in my next post.

How much is that worth?

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Looks like Keith Graves’ trial is a go for this Monday, 10/19

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com


Update 10/19:  Federal PACER system shows a filing on 10/16 which gives notice for a pretrial conference at 1 p.m. before Judge Hovland.

Schedule for all four judges is visible here.

Mr. Graves has a pretrial conference at 1 p.m. on 10/19 with the trial scheduled to start at 1:30.  The trial is scheduled for all day from 10/20 through Friday 10/23.  The trial is one of several cases scheduled each day from 10/26 through 10/30. I’m not sure what it means to have a trial and several hearings all scheduled at the same time.

Looks like trial is moving forward this week.

As of this morning, I can find zero media coverage of the trial via an internet search.

Post as of 10/16:  Just looked at the PACER system. Filings through today (10/16) look to me like the trial will start as scheduled this upcoming Monday.

Jury instructions were filed and the US Attorney objected saying they want certain words included for two counts. They want “intent” added.

Witness list was filed by the government.

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Updates on wide open frontiers – 9/15

Falcon 9 launch. Photo,  in public domain, courtesy of SpaceX

Falcon 9 launch. Photo, in public domain, courtesy of SpaceX.

Several fun updates on the wide open frontiers of technology and private space flight.

First, I’m an accountant that talks to bookkeepers, accountants, and church leaders all day when I’m not sitting at a computer. So it is really cool to look at how stuff is made. Check out the incredible technological capacity and refined skill needed just to make scuba tanks.

Making a Worthington X-Series Steel Scuba Cylinder

Then ponder the incredible knowledge that had to be accumulated to make all that happen. Wow.

Hat tip to Beyond the Black. (Link to video: youtu.be/Z8R-I5I1Dgo?t=193)


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News from around the Bakken – 7/27

Mancamp near Ray, ND. Photo by James Ulvog

Mancamp near Ray, ND. Photo by James Ulvog

Williston city and Williams County are working to cut back mancamp housing, which will have the expected unintended consequence of putting upward pressure on housing prices. The new airport in Williston is moving forward. Biggest news is indication that newest wells aren’t seeing production deplete as rapidly as in the past. Read more…

Peak Oil is still wrong. Peak Oilists are the new Flat Earthers – #39

Apparently it is necessary to point out that Peak Oil doctrine is still wrong.

Ronald Bailey explains Hubbert’s Peak Refuted: Peak Oil Theory Still Wrong.  He points out an author who has written multiple books defending Peak Oil.

I just checked Amazon and can find four books from the mentioned author, written in 2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010. All are selling well. Not great, but okay. I’m astounded that so many people still believe that foolishness.

Article gives some info I’ve not seen before: Read more…

More good stuff on Bakken – 6/8

Great summary of news in the last week, “big trigger” oil tax reduction won’t get pulled, and lots of new housing in Williston available in ’15.

If you want a brief, superb summary of news last week on energy, Bakken, North Dakota, and cooking temperature numbers, you gotta’ check out:

6/6 – Million Dollar Way – Weekend update, Part I – June 6, 2015 – Mr. Oksol calls OPEC ‘dead.’ What we refer to as OPEC is now essentially a venue for Saudi Arabia. Read more…

Ideas to make your writing more understandable. Give it a shot.

The whole purpose of writing things is for other people to understand your ideas. Why then is so much writing bad?

Steven Pinker suggests in The Source of Bad Writing that the issue is

The ‘curse of knowledge’ leads writers to assume their readers know everything they know

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Formula 1 pit stops – 67 seconds in 1950 – 4 seconds in 2013

For your chuckle of the day, check out this video of a leisurely pit stop in 1950.

The driver barely stops in 2013. Watch carefully or you will miss the refueling and tire changes.

(hat tip: carpe diem)

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