Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Two more predictions on oil production in North Dakota – one an estimate of the date for 1M bopd and the other a never to exceed amount

I’ve been making note of predictions, forecasts, and wild guesses for when oil production in North Dakota will hit a million barrels a day.  I’ve seen another estimate for that. Also saw a prediction with an iron-clad upper limit that Bakken production will never cross.

Rick Perry had a side comment in his post at Carpe Diem: Carpe oleum (seize the oil): North Dakota’s exponential oil production sets more new records in August.

In his update he provides a comparison to energy production countries:

… At the current rate of production increases, it’s possible that North Dakota will be producing more than one million bpd of oil by the middle of next year and the state will then surpass oil output in the following countries: Indonesia (923,000 bpd), Oman (927,000 bpd), India (945,000 bpd), Colombia (960,000 bpd), and the U.K. (982,000 bpd).

That isn’t really a forecast. It’s more a straight line projection. The point estimate is the middle of next year. Can we say that’s May through August, the middle third of the year?

Never to exceed amount

Of particular note is something from one of the commenters who appears to be a Peak Oil advocate. This person’s comment sets an upper limit.

That would be the amount which North Dakota oil production will never, ever meet or exceed. Or at least for the next 1,000 years. 

The comment:

And, Qutar produces 1,200,000 bbl/day of Crude + Condensate. The Bakken will Never produce 1.2 Million bbl/day. Not this year. Not next year. Not in the next millenium.

Since non-Bakken production is running about 66k bopd, that means production state-wide will never, ever pass the 1.266M bopd mark. I’ll round that off at 1.3M bopd for the full state. I’ll now try to remember the never-to-exceed forecast.

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