In the Bakken, the calendar may say this is 2013, but for oil production it’s already 2016

In terms of Bentek’s forecast from 2011, production is already at 2016 levels. It is so cool they were wrong!

In the distant past of April 2011 (that data is only 24 months old), production was around 500k bopd. Production was forecast to hit around 700k bopd by the end of 2012 and around 900k bopd by December 2016.

That info from RBN Energy’s article Too Wrong for Too Long? How 2011 Bakken Crude Forecasts Compare to Today.

The graph of actual and forecast production now?

From the graph, around 900k bopd now accelerating through 1,000k bopd in late 2013 and well over 1,300k at the end of 2016.

A recap of where production is now:

Between June 2011 and today – as seen in the chart below – the view of Bakken production changed dramatically. By February of 2013, actual production (green shaded area on the chart) had grown to 900 Mb/d – exactly what it was previously expected to be in 2016. And the forecast this month (May 2013) is for production to grow to just under 1.4 MMb/d by the end of 2016 getting towards double what it was forecast to be in 2011 (blue shaded area on the chart). 

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