August 2013 – Outrun Change

200 years of economics history in one editorial, which explains how we got into our current mess

World War I generated most of the horrible disasters we’ve seen in the last 100 years.

With the possible exception of the decline of the Roman Empire, World War I was the greatest disaster in human history.

It contributed mightily to the Great Depression, which fed the Nazi revolution. That in turn led to WWII.

The war unleashed the totalitarian ideologies of communism, fascism and Naziism, which very nearly destroyed Western civilization. Their poisonous legacy lives on in radical Islamic extremism.

Continue reading “200 years of economics history in one editorial, which explains how we got into our current mess”

More good stuff on surveillance – 8-29-13

Here is my third list of good stuff that I’d like talk about but only have time to recommend with a quick comment.

Washington Post – Here’s how phone metadata can reveal your affairs, abortions, and other secrets – the phone number you called, time of day, and duration can give away information you may not want to give away.

Continue reading “More good stuff on surveillance – 8-29-13”

“If evil be spoken of you and it be true, correct itself, if it be a lie, laugh at it.”

That is a classic quote from Epictetus pondered in a post by the same title from Philosiblog.

The simpler cousin of that comment is the concept that if you receive criticism, you ought to evaluate which parts are correct and make the appropriate changes. You are free to ignore those parts of the criticism which are invalid.

When the comment about you involves lies, the above quote suggests you evaluate whether there is any truth in the comments. If so, then you have some work to do.

The difficult part is when the evil spoken of you is a lie.

Continue reading ““If evil be spoken of you and it be true, correct itself, if it be a lie, laugh at it.””

Lots of blame for the financial crisis of ’08 falls on the federal government

There is a huge amount of blame to be spread for the Great Recession that started in 2008. While the recession technically ended four years ago back in June of 2009, most people in California and lots of charities here are still feeling the effects.

I see exquisitely little discussion of how intentional federal policies created the distortions that led to the financial crisis. An op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by Phil Gramm and Mike Solon help explain why much of the blame belongs to the federal government: The Clinton-Era Roots of the Financial Crisis.

To make this non-partisan, I’ll point out that the flawed policies from the Clinton administration were ratified, continued, and extended by the Bush administration. Not to worry, both parties have worked lots of overtime to earn their share of blame.

While you can argue on the proportionate blame between the two parties, I’ll point out that regardless of the allocation you determine, 100% of that particular allocation falls on deliberate federal policy.

Initial efforts to persuade private pension plans to fund low-income housing failed. The administration forced Continue reading “Lots of blame for the financial crisis of ’08 falls on the federal government”

Technology making relationships more difficult?

Do social media and cell phone technology lead to shallower, more fragile relationships or deeper, more intimate relationships?

Yes.

That seems to be the answer from Professor C. J. Pascoe in her article, Romancing the Phone.

I don’t talk romantic issues or dating stuff here, but her article helps understand what is going on around us.

She offers several stories of hurt that flows from use of technology. On that general trend: Continue reading “Technology making relationships more difficult?”

Eagle Ford output passes 600K bopd in June – another prediction for 1M bopd in Bakken and Eagle Ford

Carpe Diem summarizes great news that “Eagle Ford June oil output increased 60% from a year ago to a new record high; will likely surpass Bakken next summer.”

Initial report shows production in Eagle Ford was about 621,000 barrels a day during June.

I haven’t figured out how to either track or understand the reports on Eagle Ford oil. The initial data is revised higher as additional companies report their data. For example, from my notes the initial reports rise anywhere from 26k bopd (9-12) up to 90k bopd (1-13) when all the data is in. That means that final tally for June is likely to be anywhere from 650k to near 700k.

The production race, million barrel prediction

Continue reading “Eagle Ford output passes 600K bopd in June – another prediction for 1M bopd in Bakken and Eagle Ford”

I’d be worried about Peak Oil if… (#30)

If exploration of the third shelf of Three Forks had been completed instead of just started,

if exploration of fourth shelf were done instead of *not* started,

if price increases didn’t make economically unrecoverable oil economically recoverable,

if new technology didn’t make technically unrecoverable oil technically recoverable,

Continue reading “I’d be worried about Peak Oil if… (#30)”

4,000 years of history in 1 chart – superb visualization

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

Think you could map out the history of the world over the last 4,000 years, showing the relative power of all the major governments and people groups, and then put all that info into one chart?

John B. Sparks did just that back in 1931. His five-foot-long chart can be seen at Slate – The Entire History of the World – Really, All of It – Distilled Into a Single Gorgeous Chart.

Very cool to look at the ebb and flow of the people groups discussed in the Old and New Testament – the Egyptians giving way to the Babylonians and Assyrians. Then the Persians and Greeks and Romans. Then the Ottoman Turks, then British & other European powers. The map stops in 1931, at the start of the Great Depression and between the two world wars.

Continue reading “4,000 years of history in 1 chart – superb visualization”

The printed book industry looks like the dying honeysuckles in the park. And I’m okay with that. Not the plants dying, but the industry.

Daily I walk past a large group of honeysuckle plants that used to be about 30 feet long and about 12 feet wide. The aroma is wonderful while they are in bloom.

Over the last couple of months, something has happened to the plant bed. There are three big areas where there is now only dirt. The number of honeysuckle plants is about half what it used to be.

The ones left are pretty, growing, and fragrant.

However, that bed of plants is dying.

What is happening to those fragrant plants is happening to the book industry.

Continue reading “The printed book industry looks like the dying honeysuckles in the park. And I’m okay with that. Not the plants dying, but the industry.”

More good stuff on surveillance – 8-15-13

There are a lot of articles discussing the surveillance world we now live in. I would like to comment on many of them in a full post. Alas, time does not permit.

Here is my second list of good stuff that I’d like talk about but only have time to recommend with a quick comment.

Here’s two new phrases for you:

Localized cloud
“Patriot-Act proof” – a new promo for cloud storage sites that aren’t in the U.S.

Continue reading “More good stuff on surveillance – 8-15-13”

Maybe there is a Peak Oil issue after all. That would be Peak Oil Consumption, not Peak Oil Production

We may be hitting a peak in demand for oil. That’s the idea raised in The Economist two weeks ago – Yesterday’s Fuel.

Between a tremendous surge in natural gas production and car efficiencies, they perceive demand for oil may stabilize instead of continuing to grow.

Thus, we might finally have a real Peak Oil issue: Continue reading “Maybe there is a Peak Oil issue after all. That would be Peak Oil Consumption, not Peak Oil Production”

Mali update – 8-12-13 – Mali has a new president

Wow. Election is resolved in Mali a day after the balloting and before the official results are announced.

On Monday Soumaila Cissé, former finance minister, conceded to Ibrahim Keita, a former prime minister.

Not that my voice matters to anyone, but I wish from the bottom of my heart that Mr. Keita will have a successful presidency and bring peace and prosperity to his country.

See Wall Street Journal – Keita Wins Mali Vote After His Opponent Concedes for the news.

Damage to trust in our government is most dangerous risk of the spying fiasco

I think the most serious damage from the feds spying on everything is that the effort could rapidly destroy our trust as citizens in our government. Collateral damage is that the big tech companies could wipe out our trust in them.

Bruce Schneier has been discussing this often, especially in a recent column at Schneier on Security – Restoring Trust in Government and the Internet

Look at these technically true comments that are actually very clever deceptions: Continue reading “Damage to trust in our government is most dangerous risk of the spying fiasco”

Looks like newspapers are available for purchase with pocket change – if you have humongous pockets

Amazing. The Boston Globe was sold for a negative sales price. The Washington Post is purchased by an individual for his personal portfolio.

Continue reading “Looks like newspapers are available for purchase with pocket change – if you have humongous pockets”

Global impact of fracking on oil market

Huge increase in oil production in the U.S. created by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing is a strategic threat to OPEC.

Against Crony Capitalism blog observes:

Saudi Arabia is concerned. Thanks to the shale gas revolution which has blossomed in the United States and which is starting to blossom in places like the United Kingdom and even China, the Saudi stranglehold on world energy reserves is loosening with each passing day.

Continue reading “Global impact of fracking on oil market”