Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

More good stuff on Bakken – 4/14

A few articles on what’s going on the Bakken oil patch. Williston keeps growing. Rig count falling. Neither a surprise.

3/16 – BakkenShale.com – Population Grows 20% in Williston – Researcher Nancy Hodur of NDSU has done a tally of the total number of people in Williston and Williams County. She started with the census numbers and added hotels, man camps, and RV parks. Her estimate:

  • 2012      2014      % chg  area
  • 25,915   31,143   20%     Williston
  • 44,308   52,778   19%     Williams County

4/3 – Reuters Media at Dickinson PressClock keeps ticking toward North Dakota oil tax break March is month #3 with crude oil prices below the $52.59 threshold for WTI. If there are 5 months in a row, the 6.5% oil extraction tax is waived. The tax will return when the price is over the inflation adjusted threshold for 5 consecutive months. Last month Mr. Lynn Helms indicated he thinks the trigger will be pulled this year.

4/7 – Million Dollar Way – Williams County Approves $500 Million Shopping Hub for Williston, North Dakota – Smart players with money to risk are betting on Williston. The $500M project will be built in four phases. It will have 1M square feet retail, 600K square feet office space, 900 apartments, 4 hotels, and even an indoor water park.

The big deal is that smart people are willing to make a big bet because they think they will make a fortune.

Very cool.  That would be a huge development even here in the Inland Empire are of Los Angeles area.

4/13 – Reuters at Dickinson Press – EIA: U.S. shale oil output to fall in May, first drop in 4 years – Projections by EIA are to drop 23K bopd from 5.02M bopd this month (April) to 4.98M bopd next month (May).

Bakken projected to drop 23K bopd to 1.3M bopd in May.

Actual in January for North Dakota was 1.19M bopd.

Rig count

3/25 – Million Dollar Way – Below the Century Mark, Break on Through to the Other Side – Count of wells has dropped below the 100 mark. Hit 98 on 3/25. Current estimate is 115 are needed to maintain production.

4/2 – Million Dollar Way – Active Rigs Down to 94 (New Low) – Count of rigs is at 94. Other reports say that one day this week the count of rigs actually went up for a day.

4/8 – Million Dollar Way – Down to 91 1Active Rigs in North Dakota – the count continues to drop. Down 2 from yesterday.

TRAIN DERAILMENT

More train wrecks. Minimal publicity on these.

3/21 – Million Dollar Way – Derailment North of Valley Mills, Texas; NOT Bakken Crude Oil; No Explosion; No Injuries – And no publicity. Five tank cars were carrying methanol.

3/22 – Million Dollar Way – Another derailment – This One in Alberta – Biggest clue this one wasn’t involving Bakken crude is that the visible cars are covered hoppers. The kind used to carry grain.

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