Peak Oil is still wrong. Peak Oilists are the new Flat Earthers – #39
Apparently it is necessary to point out that Peak Oil doctrine is still wrong.
Ronald Bailey explains Hubbert’s Peak Refuted: Peak Oil Theory Still Wrong. He points out an author who has written multiple books defending Peak Oil.
I just checked Amazon and can find four books from the mentioned author, written in 2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010. All are selling well. Not great, but okay. I’m astounded that so many people still believe that foolishness.
Article gives some info I’ve not seen before:
As I have explained earlier geologist M. King Hubbert famously predicted in 1956 that U.S. domestic oil production in the lower 48 states would peak around 1970 and begin to decline. In 1969 Hubbert predicted that world oil production would peak around 2000.
Yes. The ol’ gig of my precisely calculated, ironclad calculation of the date of disaster is totally wrong so I will just fine tune my calculations and pick another date.
Usually we see that with false-doctrine-advocating religious “teachers” who have calculated the exact date Jesus will return. That is in spite of the Bible verse saying no one, not even Jesus when he was on the earth, knows when that would happen. Those teachers, however, are smarter than the bible. When the world is still here the day after their precisely calculated date, they quickly make another calculation.
Dr. Hubbert and his disciples are in good company.
(Is that ridicule? Yes. Well deserved too. Sometimes making fun of the foolishness of an idea is the best way to illustrate its foolishness.)
Here’s a superb explanation of Peak Oil doctrine from the article:
Hubbert argued that oil production grows until half the recoverable resources in a field have been extracted, after which production falls off at essentially the same rate at which it expanded. This theory suggests a bell-shaped curve rising from first discovery to peak and descending to depletion.
Article points out that author’s books continue the revisionism habit by calculating new dates of the always-soon-to-arrive afternoon we will finally hit Peak Oil.
In one book, anyone who disagrees is labeled a “flat-earther.”
With rapidly rising oil production, article asks:
Who’s a flat-earther now?
Author introduces a phrase I’ve not seen before, but which fits well:
Flat-earther is also a good description for the Peak Oil disciples.
6/10 – Say Anything Blog – Who Are the Flat Earthers Now? – Article pointed me to the one I just discussed. Thanks, Mr. Port!
The production surge in North Dakota of the last five or so years is merely the latest in a long string of proofs that Peak Oil is false.
Article rephrases the comments I’ve seen so many times, especially from Prof Mark Perry. Mr. Port’s comment:
But our understanding of the world is always evolving, and we should never underestimate the ability of humanity to invent, innovate, and adapt.
The ignorance proudly on display by commenters show another reason it is still necessary to point out that Peak Oil is completely, totally false. There are still lots of true believers.
Oh, two more articles that blow apart core components of Peak Oil doctrine:
6/10 – Yahoo Finance – U.S. Ousts Russia as Top World Oil, Gas Producer in BP Data – Data from BP shows that the U.S. is world’s biggest producer of hydrocarbons, surpassing Russia for the first time.
Most of that oil production is from fields that were technologically untouchable two decades ago. There was no one on the planet that had any possible idea on how to get the stuff out of the ground. Yet today shale oil and shale gas has moved the US past Russia in output.
5/27 – Rigzone – Norway Has More Oil than a Decade Ago – The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate announced that the country has more recoverable oil now than it did 10 years ago.
New fields have been discovered, existing fields have been explored and proved recoverable, reservoirs understood better, development solutions improved, and drainage strategies optimized.
I don’t know (and won’t bother to look up) how much oil Norway has pulled out of the ground, but they have more that is economically and technologically recoverable today than a decade ago.
Let me make that point again, since so many people hold to the false doctrine of Peak Oil: in spite of all the oil Norway has produced, they have more technologically and economically recoverable oil today than they did 10 years ago.