Jim Ulvog – Page 12 – Outrun Change

Magic of the price signal to change production levels.

Fourteen wells on one pad, located on the southeast side of Williston, N.D. Photo by James Ulvog.

The double black swan of COVID-19 pandemic from the demand side and Saudi Arabia flooding the market from the supply side is creating a sales problem and storage problem for the oil industry.

Regulators in Texas are thinking about about ordering a pro-rate reduction in production. In other words, they are considering giving each producer an order on how much to cut.

North Dakota has no such plans.

North Dakota is planning to rely on capitalism to rapidly adjust production.

Continue reading “Magic of the price signal to change production levels.”

More attacks on constitutional freedoms.

This dream of so many elected politicians is flagrantly illegal. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Because a large and growing number of elected officials do not have a functional awareness of the Bill of Rights, I will recite the first and second amendments. Will then cite merely a few of the recent violations thereof.

Article I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Article II

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

..the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

4/17/20 – NJ.com – Woman charged for organizing protest of Murphy’s coronavirus stay-at-home order – Continue reading “More attacks on constitutional freedoms.”

What is cost of the shutdown in terms of lowered overall health and increased mortality?

Diagram of tradeoff. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Found an article that well explains the worry I have from this extended shutdown of most of the US economy.

4/17/20 – Wall Street Journal – The Hidden Toll of Untreated Illnesses / As COVID-19 overwhelms doctors and hospitals, patients with other conditions receive less care, leading to a rise in mortality.

My concern is the shutdown, loss of income, and isolation will have adverse health consequences. What will we see in terms of the level of increased mortality of people with serious illnesses which would otherwise not occur?

How many people are going to die from the shutdown?

What the tipping point at which the shutdown has more cost in terms of health than benefit? The first step in addressing that question is realizing the question even exists.

(Cross-post from my other blog Nonprofit Update.)

Author of the article is a practicing cardiologist.

Continue reading “What is cost of the shutdown in terms of lowered overall health and increased mortality?”

North Dakota oil production in February 2020, before dropping due to pandemic and OPEC flooding market

Night sky in Williston, N.D. Long exposure photo by Joe U. Look at all the stars.

In February 2020, crude oil production in North Dakota averaged 1,451,029 bopd (preliminary), up 20,518 bopd from 1,430,511 bopd (revised) in January. This is the 4th highest level of output, behind the high water mark of 1,519,032 bopd in November.

Production is going to drop rapidly. Drop will be at least 20% of current production. I’ll make a not-so-wild guess decline will be a quarter or more (>25%).

Prices have collapsed due to a double black swan. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a demand side shock.

There is also a supply side shock to the market.

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production in February 2020, before dropping due to pandemic and OPEC flooding market”

Crude oil production levels in North Dakota in February 2020.

Following charts show the production levels in the state before the double black swan events of pandemic and price war hit the market.

Next post will discuss the production levels and those two black swans.

Production in state and Bakken only:

For longer term perspective: Continue reading “Crude oil production levels in North Dakota in February 2020.”

Voiding of the U.S. Constitution by executive order.

Here are highlights of a few articles I’ve read over the last few days. Not all of the articles. Not all the issues. Not all the states.

Please see if you notice a trend.

4/14/20 – Legal Insurrection – First Amendment Fail – Raleigh police: “Protesting is a non-essential activity” – Citizens protesting the shutdown of the economy – citizens mind you, not subjects – were told by the Raleigh, North Carolina police to disperse. The police obviously announced that to the assembly and also sent out a message.

The police proclaimed, on twitter that:

“Protesting is a non-essential activity.”

See the article for a screen shot.

4/10/20 – Bridge – What Michigan’s new coronavirus stay-at-home executive order means – By executive fiat, the Michigan governor issued expansive orders restricting what can be sold and outlined a restrictive stay-at-home order.

Large stores, like Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot may not sell:

Continue reading “Voiding of the U.S. Constitution by executive order.”

Economic damage from shutdown – 4/15.

A few more articles on damage we are seeing from the economic shutdown.

(Cross post from my other blog, Attestation Update.)

Guess on California unemployment rate

April 2020 – Eberhardt School of Business, University of Pacific – Initial Estimates of Employment Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic – The school of business estimates an unemployment rate of 18.8% in California for the month of May 2020.

This is in contrast to 2010 rate of 12.2% and 2019 rate of 4.0%.

Likely increase in bankruptcies

4/13/20 – Washington Examiner – Pandemic likely to exceed Great Recession in number of bankruptcies – Economists from a leftist think tank and a conservative think tank both guess that the number of bankruptcies from the current shutdown of the economy will exceed the number from the Great Recession.

Continue reading “Economic damage from shutdown – 4/15.”

Collateral damage from shutdown.

The damage from the shutdown of the U.S. economy will be severe. Having ‘flattened the curve’, rapidly expanded hospital capacity, and kicked critical production lines into high gear, it is time open up the economy before the second order impacts cause more health damage and death from the shutdown than from the coronavirus.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

4/10/20 – originally posted on Medium but was pulled; do a bit of reading and then make your own assessment why the site didn’t want the article to remain visible to the public – Eight Reasons to End the Lockdowns Now – article was written by five medical doctors and one Doctor of Nursing Practice.

The eight reasons:

Continue reading “Collateral damage from shutdown.”

This is what religious freedom looks like.

(Cross-posted from my other blog, Freedom is Moral. Originally posted on 3/3/13. Will repost and slightly update today.)

Yesterday one-third of the people on the planet celebrated the most holy day of their faith – Easter.

Yesterday was just another Sunday for two-thirds of the people on the planet.

As I understand it, this upcoming Thursday marks the last day of Passover, a high point of the Jewish faith (Updated for 2020). Passover celebrates the exodus from slavery as Moses led the people of Israel toward the promised land. For those reading this blog who are Jews, from the bottom of my heart I sincerely hope you have a wonderful and blessed time of celebration.

For everyone else, I sincerely hope you had a relaxing weekend, maybe got to sleep in late. I’m quite serious. I hope you had a nice, fun, refreshing weekend. (Update to 2020: Or, more precisely, I hope you got to do as much relaxing as you could while under stay-at-home orders.)

Here’s what religious freedom looks like:

Continue reading “This is what religious freedom looks like.”

He is risen! Allelluia!

Mary Magdalene, Mary, & Salom walking up to the bright empty tomb of Jesus Christ early Sunday morning, Showing Golgotha in the background. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

More songs to enjoy as we continue to celebrate the risen Lord:

Crown Him with Many Crowns

Recorded at Westminster Abbey.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/3kPkjghup8E]

Lyrics: Crown Him with Many Crowns

I know that My Redeemer Lives

Job 19:25-27 from the New International Version (NIV):

Continue reading “He is risen! Allelluia!”

Blessed Easter to you! He is risen!

He is risen!

He is risen indeed!

Here’s a selection of videos to help your celebration on this most wonderful day, even though we be worshiping apart due to the coronavirus pandemic, nothing shall ever stop the good news:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dT7dGcsrPkQ]

Continue reading “Blessed Easter to you! He is risen!”

Jerusalem Daily Reporter, Sunday pre-sunrise edition: “Jesus of Nazareth, Enemy Of The State, Executed For Treason”

News flash from 4/5/15:

Jerry Bowyer has the report from Jerusalem. It is in the very early edition of today’s paper. Apparently that seditious rabble-rouser from Nazareth got his just due Friday past when the Sanhedrin and Roman government both agreed to address treason as treason ought be addressed.

The article’s first paragraph,

Jesus of Nazareth was executed today on the orders of the Roman State. Method of execution: Crucifixion. The charge under Roman law was treason, and under Herodian law blasphemy against the Temple. The evidence against this anarchist was so strong that authorities of both the Roman State and the Kingdom of Herod concurred with the arrest and execution, and he was subjected to trial by both governments. And in a rare uprising of spontaneous collective justice, the mass of people who were gathered for Passover called for his execution as well. The mob affirmed their loyalty to the state, chanting, “We have no king but Caesar.”

For the rest of the story, check out the full news report in Forbes: Jesus of Nazareth, Enemy Of The State, Executed For Treason.

After reading the full article, I’m sure you will agree with me that we shall never hear of his name again.

Hold on…

Continue reading “Jerusalem Daily Reporter, Sunday pre-sunrise edition: “Jesus of Nazareth, Enemy Of The State, Executed For Treason””

Economic news: Surge in new unemployment claims; unemployment rate starting to rise.

Another huge jump in new unemployment claims. The rise in count of people without work is barely starting to show in the unemployment rate.

It would be wise to start watching the economic stats more closely than usual.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Attestation Update.)

4/9/20 – CNBC – US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6 million and we’ve now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks – Another surge in new unemployment claims announced today. Here is a recap:

Continue reading “Economic news: Surge in new unemployment claims; unemployment rate starting to rise.”

Economic damage from pandemic is severe and will continue to be severe.

We are starting to see some guesses about the economic damage from the shutdowns driven by the pandemic.

When you read about the 10 million people who have filed for unemployment in the last two weeks and consider there will be millions more and the unemployment will continue for another month or two, ponder the ripple effects.

That shock of unemployment translates into cars not purchased, summer & Christmas vacations not taken, conferences not attended, college enrollment delayed a year, fancy wedding receptions never planned, and house renovations postponed by a decade.

(Cross posted from my other blog, Attestation Update.)

4/5/20 – Wall Street Journal – State Shutdowns Have Taken at Least a Quarter of U.S. Economy Offline – Study by Moody’s Analytics estimates that 29% of the U.S. economy has shut down. That is the estimated drop in output we have already seen.

Some of the staggeringly dangerous hits to U.S. output and wealth:

Continue reading “Economic damage from pandemic is severe and will continue to be severe.”

French nuclear weapon inventory in 2019.

070723-N-6524M-004 by cryogenic666 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. Mediterranean Sea (July 23, 2007)– A French Rafale M combat aircraft performs a catapult-assisted launch from the flight deck of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (CVN 65). The Rafale is the first French aircraft to both launch and recover on an American carrier. U.S Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Brandon Morris. Image released by LT Mark C. Jones, PAO CVN 65.

For an overview of France’s nuclear weapons consider the document French nuclear forces, 2019 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Their preferred citation is: Hans M. Kristensen & Matt Korda (2019) French nuclear forces, 2019, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 75:1, 51-55, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2019.1556003.

The bulk of their nuclear inventory is submarine based with a small number of land-based fighters and a smaller number of carrier-based fighters.

Strategy

France’s defense policy is their nuclear weapons are for “legitimate self-defense.” They have not adopted a no-first-use policy and reserve the right for a limited strike as a “final warning” that they will defend themselves.

SLBMs and SSBNs

France has four Triomphant-class nuclear powered submarines. One of these SSBNs is always on patrol, a second is getting ready to go on patrol, another has returned from patrol, and the final one is in maintenance. Article says each sub patrol is approximately 70 days.

Continue reading “French nuclear weapon inventory in 2019.”