For a more overall view (and under fair use) I added up the launches from 1998 through 2006 and then from 2007 through 2016. I chose a break of 2007 because that is when Lockheed Martin and Boeing formed their joint venture, United Launch Alliance. Here are the long-term trends:
WInd farms will soon get 30 year long permits to take out those birds. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub prior to their merger into Adobe Stock.
Just a few of the recent articles providing updates on slice-and-dicers damage in general and status of North Dakota wind farmsplants in particular.
Wyoming project may get specific permission to kill eagles
All wind farmsplants get broad permission to kill eagles for 30 years
Massive subsidies for wind power, which is intermittent and unreliable, meaning it is often unavailable when needed
Updates on two N.D. turbine farms
12/8/16 – Denver Post – Wyoming wind project may get permit to kill eagles – The Chokecherry-Sierra Madre wind farmplant, which will start with 500 slice-and-dicers and may expand to 1,000 bird-choppers, could get two critical permits by next month (January).
The first permit will allow destroying eagle nests that are currently unoccupied. I’m guessing that will chase away eagles from the kill zone.
The second permit will allow the facility to kill 14 golden eagles a year for five years. They can also off 2 bald eagles a year for five years.
The slicer farmplant will have to do mitigation for the golden eagles they expect to kill, but not the bald eagles.
I will modify their tally by adding another 15 launches by China as reported by GBTimes, China to attempt close to 30 space launches in 2017. Behind the Black explains that China is somewhat secretive about their space plans, so they don’t announce all their expected launches.
In other news, Behind the Black reports India considers going to Jupiter and Venus. Their first manned flights are planned for 2024. BtB also reports Arianespace wins two contracts, aims for a dozen launches in 2017. Article guesses that Arianspace is getting these contracts because SpaceX has a backlog longer than their current capacity can deliver timely. Article indicates SpaceX needs to up their launch rate to stay competitive.
So, here is the list of planned launches. I also include the lift vehicle. That data is useful for me in order to keep straight what rockets belong to whom.
Parabolic Arc – USA, China Led World in Launches in 2016 – Supercool article describes the launch successes and failures in 2016, including a tally of launches by country and life vehicles. Recap of status of all the US players.
I pulled the tally of attempts and successes, including the launch pad failure of a Falcon 9 as an attempt, even though it didn’t get off the ground and thus is not actually an attempt:
This is a really big deal because water is critical for space travel. Obvious use is hydration of astronauts and food preparation. Not so obviously, the H2O can be broken down into oxygen for breathing and hydrogen for propulsion.
Combine that idea with the cost of getting anything into orbit, which is somewhere north of $100,000 a pound. More on that in a moment. A gallon of water to drink could cost something in the range of a million dollars, give or take, to get into orbit.
Hey, I’m interested in the oddest things. Saw an article saying Boeing completed a deal for 80 aircraft at a list price approaching $17 billion.
I wondered, just what is the sticker price for a brand new jet?
If you are also curious, follow along with me as I take a quick look at the details.
12/12 – Wall Street Journal – Boeing Seals Nearly $17 Billion Iran Deal– The deal could get sidetracked by a change in administration, but they have a deal, subject to approval of a wide range of federal agencies.
Difference between this guy and the newspaper industry is this guy has a rope. Oh, and he is doing this intentionally. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.
Previously explained Still falling of a cliff, newspaper edition. The post has two graphs from Carpe Diem showing the collapse in newsroom employment levels and industry revenue.
Here are a few more articles describing the cliff that newspapers are falling off of.
The reason I am watching the newly state-legal recreational marijuana markets is to see the impact of heavy regulation on the industry.
A related issue is the social results of recreational marijuana. Here are a few articles providing some early hints of the results. Perhaps these are nothing more than slivers of hints. Yet there are some early indications. On the other hand, perhaps these are merely transition and implementation issues.
The massively important question is whether the increased costs in some areas are worth the drastically lower costs in other areas (mass incarceration, militarization of law enforcement, severe enforcement costs).
I am watching developments in Colorado and Oregon for the newly state-legal recreational use of marijuana. Just as a reminder, my interest is not in marijuana. My curiosity is focused on how much of a drag a burdensome and expensive regulatory structure will create for a newly legalized industry.
My hypothesis is the heavy-handed regulations will be crushing and the expected result will be to severely restrain a new industry.
A related tangent is the tension between recreational marijuana use being legal in certain states under state law yet still illegal at the federal level. Here are a few articles I’ve read on this tension.
7/22 – Slate, originally at Inc. – Why Colorado Marijuana Businesses Suddenly Have an IRS Problem – Tax attorneys and accountants are saying there may be something in the range of 30 marijuana businesses in Colorado under IRS audit for their 2014 and 2015 taxes.
Results from the fall 2016 elections show spread of recreational marijuana. That means there will be a lot more states to keep an eye on to see how severely the regulations affect in a new industry.
Currently I’m trying to keep an eye on developments in Colorado and Oregon, since they are further along in the experiment of regulating the industry. At this point I’ll also keep an eye on California, which is one of the states which just voted to allow recreational use. Since I live in California, it will be easier to keep an eye on the regulatory environment.
11/8 – Washington Post – Marijuana wins big on election night– Looks like I’ll need to spend a lot more time watching the crushing effect of overregulation on newly legal industries.
Drawing of our possible ride to Mars: Interplanetary Transport System Credit: Flickr; SpaceX has placed this in public domain.
Fun articles lately on the wide open frontier of exploring space:
More details on SpaceX’s framework for how they plan to get people to Mars.
Bidding for GPS 3 launches and purchase price for two more satellites of the GPS III constellation.
What criminal law will apply in space?
China’s moon rover, Jade Rabbit, finally dies after 31 months, which is in contrast to its expected 3 month life.
9/29 – Space.com – Feasible or Fantasy? SpaceX’s Mars Plan Draws Expert Reactions – Author pulls in a variety of initial reactions to SpaceX’s outline of how to get colonists to Mars. My summary of comments is the plans have a lot of technological, funding, and timing hurdles to clear. In addition, a lot of work needs to be done to develop how the technological, food sourcing, economic, and energy systems would work on the planet to support long-term residency.
One hurdle has already been cleared – the technology for a soft landing on Mars is already in place as demonstrated by the successful recovery of boosters.
If you want a picture of what utter collapse in an industry looks like, check out the graph above from Professor Mark Perry on employment in the newspaper industry.
From a peak of 457,800 in 1990 to 180,100 in July 2016 is a drop of 60.7%.
The Technology Quarterly issue from The Economist for August 27, 2016 described the open frontier of space. Check out Remaking the sky. I think that’s behind their paywall, so you may need a subscription.
Here are a few cool things I learned.
A sudden light– Nice description of the SpaceX launch when they recovered a booster back at the original launch site. Puts into context what an amazing step it is to recover a booster.
The small and the many– There are four major players in the world of communication satellites: Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Intelsat, and SES.
The typical cost for SES satellites range from $100M up to $300M. The launch cost is in ballpark of $100M. At those prices the entire satellite industry is very risk-averse. I get it. You cannot take a big chance when somewhere between $200M and $400M is on the line.
Tiny satellites, called cubesats, are built in multiples of blocks measured in “1U”, meaning a box 10 cm by 10 cm by 11.5 cm.
Cubesats are revolutionizing the satellite world by dramatically reducing cost and risk. The cost to develop a cubesat is small. One launch can lift a lot of cubesats which drops the cost. They don’t have the power to last very long and don’t have any propulsion, with both factors making it cheaper to experiment and not as risky to something trying something new.
