Energy – Page 25 – Outrun Change

Has the U.S. just stopped making stuff? Yeah, I’d think so too if industrial output in the U.S. wasn’t at all time record high.

There’s an idea that we don’t make anything in the U.S. anymore. Well, we do import a huge portion of the good stuff we enjoy everyday. Yet we still make a huge amount of stuff here.

Check out this indicator of total industry production in the US. The peak production level is today:

This is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, which has a humongous database called the Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED.

What does the index above cover? From the FRED site:

The Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is an economic indicator that measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities (excluding those in U.S. territories).(1)

So industrial production in the U.S. is at a record level. Cool.

Want to check out manufacturing only? Okay, here is it: Continue reading “Has the U.S. just stopped making stuff? Yeah, I’d think so too if industrial output in the U.S. wasn’t at all time record high.”

More good stuff on Bakken – 2/17

Here’s a few more articles on Bakken I found interesting – adjusting to growth and drop in crude oil prices. How would you handle calls for police service increasing by a factor of 180 over the last 8 years?

1/9 – Oil Patch Dispatch – Record number of births reported in Oil Patch in 2014 – Along with the huge number of workers moving to North Dakota, there is another year of record baby births. Main hospitals in Minot, Williston, and Dickinson report increases of 5%, 7%, and 13% respectively.

Continue reading “More good stuff on Bakken – 2/17”

2 graphs of annual oil production in North Dakota through 2014

Here is are two pictures of the production of crude oil in the state. The monthly production is multiplied by the state’s calculation of average price with the monthly amounts aggregated.

Dollar value of production, in billions:

Amount of production, in millions of barrels:

Continue reading “2 graphs of annual oil production in North Dakota through 2014”

2 graphs showing dramatic change in production dynamics in N.D. – 2-15

The price of crude oil realized in North Dakota is lower than the Gulf coast due to transportation costs. Here is a graph of the average price for the month as reported by the Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division, of the North Dakota Industrial Commission. You can find the reports here.

Also, the number of rigs is dropping fast. Here is the average rig count, with an actual as of Friday’s report:

Continue reading “2 graphs showing dramatic change in production dynamics in N.D. – 2-15”

Oil production in N.D. hits record in December ‘14, breaking 1.2M bopd

Oil production averaged 1,227,344 in December, up from a slightly revised 1,188,258 in November, a 3.29% increase. Only passed the 1M bopd mark in April, eight months ago. Up 22% in eight months.

Rig count is dropping rapidly. Prices as well. More on that here.

Update before the graphs: A few tidbits from the Department of mineral Resources director Lynn Helms on the information released Friday, as mentioned in the Bismarck Tribune’s article, Daily oil production passes 1.2 million barrels. He mentioned with oil prices starting to recover, there is a “renewed confidence” that the big trigger of oil tax reductions will not take place.

Article says, as I’ve mentioned previously, that the little trigger was pulled effective the first of February.

Flaring targets

Flaring dropped to 24% in December. He expects the January target to be met.

Targets for flaring, per the article:

26% – 10/1/14
23% – 1/1/15
15% – two years
10% – six years

Now to the graphs. Here is some statistical data to show the story better than my words can tell:

For a longer term perspective:

Continue reading “Oil production in N.D. hits record in December ‘14, breaking 1.2M bopd”

Risk of harm is bad. Certainty of harm is good. The disconnect in assessing risks of getting the energy we need.

Sometimes you just have to scratch your head wondering about the fantasmagorical world inhabited by some regulators. A good dose of ridicule might bring them back to earth, but the chances are small. I’ll give it a try anyway.

1/14 – ReWire – Report: Fracking Imperils Southern California Residents, Wildlife – A report from the California Department of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources concluded that any fracking in three specific oil fields in the state would have

“significant and unavoidable” environmental damage”.

There would be significant risk of damage to:

Air quality
Wildlife
Public and worker safety
Increased greenhouse emissions
recreational use of surrounding lands
transportation and traffic problems

This, in a state that is building wind turbines as fast as the rare earth minerals can be mined and the concrete can be poured to get the slice-and-dice blades spinning.

This, in a state that has a huge solar plant that is killing unknown and intentionally undercounted numbers of protected & migratory birds and wants to build many more such wing-toaster facilities.

Continue reading “Risk of harm is bad. Certainty of harm is good. The disconnect in assessing risks of getting the energy we need.”

More info on the triggers for drop in ND oil tax rate

There are two triggers for dropping the tax on oil in North Dakota. These were put in place back in 1987 to encourage production. With the dramatic drop in oil prices, these two triggers are now of interest.

2/5 – Reuters – Clock starts ticking on $5.3 bln tax break for North Dakota oil – Continue reading “More info on the triggers for drop in ND oil tax rate”

Does anything exist beyond what I can see with my own eyes? “The Overnighters” as an illustration.

(Lousy photos by James Ulvog of a man camp. This small facility is in a small city between Williston and Minot. There are a lot of these man camps around Western North Dakota that provide basic sleeping and dining facilities. They are all full. Sorry I don’t have pictures of the many that I’ve seen which are far larger than this one.)

Just one aspect of the brilliance of Jesse Moss’s movie “The Overnighters” is that the nuance and subtlety in it creates a springboard for so many discussions. It also serves as a Rorschach test to reveal the worldview of those watching the movie.

One core question forces its way into view after looking at reactions by viewers. A few ways to describe the issue:

Does anything exist beyond the limit of my vision?
Is there anything more to a story than what a camera can see? Beyond what people say when the camera is running?
Is there more to know about any issue than what a movie can cover in 102 minutes?

From reactions to the movie, many people believe the answer to those questions is a resounding “no.”

Continue reading “Does anything exist beyond what I can see with my own eyes? “The Overnighters” as an illustration.”

About those dropping oil prices – #13

More articles on the drop in oil prices I found interesting.

Huge news Wednesday, 2/4, as oil collapsed big time dropping from about 53.50 to 48.50. Oh my, a $5 drop in just one day. Obviously gonna’ break the $40 mark this month, huh?

Oh wait.

Up 2.50 yesterday and another dollar as I write this morning.

Reminds me of the old joke on the days’ news about the stock market: Stock market was off 500 points today before rallying and closing up 1 and a quarter.

1/24 – The Economist – The tough get going – Companies in the energy field are working to improve their economics.

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – #13”

My favorite lines from movie “The Overnighters”. Some disclosures.

“I will not give in to despair because hopeless should never win and hopeless is a lie.”

Former pastor Jay Reinke, as the Overnighters program shuts down.

I agree. Hopeless is a lie. Despair is a lie.

“The problem is we’re working with sinners and some people are fearful.”

Andrea Reinke, as the family discusses complications of helping someone who is a registered sex offender.

Those are two of my favorite lines from the movie “The Overnighters”, which I watched for the second time last night.

Feet of clay

As Mrs. Reinke pointed out, everyone you will ever deal with is a sinner.

That concept has lots of implications. The movie does a superb job illustrating that concept. Consider:

Continue reading “My favorite lines from movie “The Overnighters”. Some disclosures.”

“The Overnighters” movie available now

A movie about the oil boom in North Dakota, the impact in Williston, and how that played out in one church is now available at Amazon. I preordered a copy and it is downloading as I write.

Have been looking forward to seeing it a second time. I knew the story, particularly the ending, before seeing the movie the first time. Now I can watch the movie knowing how the movie presented the story.

Will have more to say about the movie after I watch it another time or two.

Continue reading ““The Overnighters” movie available now”

Wind and solar not viable without massive direct subsidies

The only way that wing-toaster and slice-and-dice power plants are economically viable is with massive federal subsidies. They just can’t proceed without heavy taxpayer funding. Here are a few of the recent articles I’ve seen making that point:

1/23 – ReWire – Developer Won’t Build Controversial Solar Plant Without Tax Incentives–

Continue reading “Wind and solar not viable without massive direct subsidies”

More about the price war in oil – #12

A few more articles about the global price war underway in the crude oil market. My guess? This will not turn out as well for OPEC as OPEC expected.

A commenter at Million Dollar Way has some optimistic contrarian thoughts: A Reader’s Perspective on the Bakken in the Face of Plummeting Oil Prices. Gloomsters are apparently starting to think the N.D. economy will collapse. For a few contrarian ideas, consider the following:

Projects underway include two fertilizer plants and a huge plastics plant.
Catch-up work for infrastructure is a $1B, yes billion, to do list.
Oilfield workers are very flexible and highly productive. They could start a new job in a new industry tomorrow morning and be quite productive by lunch. (Application: there could be a good supply of workers available in the next few months to start immediately on that $1B construction backlog.)
Innovation and investing isn’t going to stop for a minute.

My biased, wild guess? After OPEC blinks and prices go up a fair amount, North Dakota will be stronger than in mid 2014. I don’t think that is what the various oil ministers are betting on.

1/16 – Forbes – When Will The Price of Oil Hit Bottom? The Market is Looking at the Wrong Number – Continue reading “More about the price war in oil – #12”

About those dropping oil prices – #11

Here’s the rest of the energy articles I’ve been wanting to catch up on. Have a few articles discussing the price war that will be posted next week.

1/6 – Shale Plays Media at Bakken.Com – “The American Moment”: API president delivers the 2015 State of American Energy – API calls today

… “The American Moment” where the current state of abundance and global leadership is something no one would have predicted just a few years ago. “This unique American moment is the result primarily of American ingenuity and technological advancements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling.” He noted that the United States is expected to soon become the number one producer in oil production, and some believe we already are.

The lights are not about to go out and we aren’t out of either oil or natural gas: Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – #11”

About those dropping oil prices – #10

Have a long backlog of articles on oil that I wanted to mention. Will start getting caught up:

12/30 – McKenzie County Farmer – As I see it – Editor Neal Shipman:

The only thing that is certain is that oil prices go up and they go down. Some oil experts believe that there is still room for oil prices to go lower. Others believe that this drop in oil prices is short-lived, and that they will soon return to previous levels. (emphasis added)

I think both set of experts are correct. Oil prices will go up and they will go down.

1/2 – Wall Street Journal – Low Oil Prices May Be New Normal – Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – #10”