We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
We are in the middle of a major structural change in the economy that is having radical impact on jobs.
Another superb article describing this transition is What If Middle-Class Jobs Disappear?, by Arnold Kling.
He suggests that the explanation for current high unemployment and turmoil is a major structural change in the whole economy. A one sentence summary:
The economy is in a state of transition, in which the middle-class jobs that emerged after World War II have begun to decline.
The Wall Street Journal has been running a series of posts on how technology can be used for censorship and surveillance of government critics. They call their series CENSORSHIP INC.
Today’s article, Life Under the Gaze of Gadhafi’s Spies, continues a discussion of how not-so-nice governments can track dissidents in real-time.
This long-running series is showing the downside to the cool, nifty technology that we enjoy today. That same stuff used to make your web browsing so wonderful and allows me the platform to pontificate in this blog, can also be used by dictators to suppress dissent. From today’s article discussing the experiences of Mr. Khaled Mehiri, a human-rights advocate:
Continue reading “Cool internet capabilities can be used for censorship and suppression of dissent”
That’s the number showing up at the Euromold trade fair in Frankfurt, from a report from The Economist, The shape of things to come. From the article:
It was here that 300 or so exhibitors working in three-dimensional printing (or “additive manufacturing” as they prefer to call it) were gathered.
The range of items that can be printed today include shoes and dresses, which is very nice. Even better are the exhaust manifolds and artificial legs. Cool!
Consider an artificial hip. Continue reading “How many exhibitors of 3D printing showed up at a big trade fair? 300.”
Previous post discussed the huge impact from having zero cost to produce and distribute one more item.
On a long-term basis, what does this do? I think several entire industries of delivering mass content are in serious trouble. If those industries don’t figure out a new business model, the overwhelming change that is taking place will sink them.
Think about this:
A: The world changes.
Zero marginal cost changes the economics of many things. Radically.
I’ve commented previously on the issue of zero marginal cost – Reflections on the zero cost and inconsequential time to deliver a 2500 page book.
If you want to get your arms around the radical change that is in progress at this moment, you really should be reading Seth Godin’s blog and books.
I have published three books in hard copy. I plan to write several more books and will go with electronic format in the future. May do a few print-on-demand copies but won’t have a big inventory like I did for my first three books.
It will take as much time, energy, and cost to get an e-book ready to go as a hard copy book. What will change is the hard costs for production. There was a lot of cost for the hard copies but there will be nothing for e-books. Since I will be distributing through Amazon and the other online stores, there will be distribution costs but there are costs to do fulfillment myself. Will have to see if the costs are the same. For a big outfit who could bring the web sales in-house or who wants to distribute resources for free, the costs would be even lower.
Overall? Cost will drop radically. I looked at the hard costs for my three books. Physical production was about 70% of my total hard costs.
Anyone can take the path I did. Anyone.
Bruce Schneier is writing a new book, Liars and Outliers. He has been posting updates all year on the project. First comment on his blog was in February.
He’s had several updates since then. All of them provide a view of the publishing world from the author’s perspective. His update this week, Status Report: Liars and Outliers, summarizes where he’s been and what the next few months will hold.
For me, as a microscopic part of the publishing world, it’s been fun to watch the progress. Here is a recap: Continue reading “Insight to the publishing world from the author’s perspective”
Walter Russell Mead speculates in his post Occupy Management, on how primary and secondary education might be restructured after today’s massive transitions settle down.
He spends the first part of this post talking about the current turmoil in the public union sector. About halfway through the article he offers a view of the future that is not 19th century, Dickens-like deprivation.
What could arise? Continue reading “What might education look like in the future?”
Those would be the Victims, Nonbelievers and Know-It-Alls, according to G. Michael Maddock and Raphael Louse Viton, in their Businessweek article, Three Types of People to Fire Immediately.
Those types of staff will slow you down, block innovation, and discourage the rest of your team.
Continue reading “What three types of people should you fire tomorrow morning?”
My tale on internal control done well and poor at two churches is now available in Kindle format at Amazon.
Price is $0.99.
You can read the book on your Kindle device, on any smart phone with a Kindle app, or on your computer using the Kindle-for-PC application.
At Amazon, search for my name, Ulvog, or the book title, Once Upon Internal Control.
Or click here to go directly to the book.
The rapid change affecting other areas of the economy is hitting primary and secondary education.
The Wall Street Journal had a long article recently: My Teacher Is an App
Nationwide, an estimated 250,000 students are enrolled in full-time virtual schools, up 40% in the last three years, according to Evergreen Education Group, a consulting firm that works with online schools. More than two million pupils take at least one class online, according to the International Association for K-12 Online Learning, a trade group.
Continue reading “Radical change on the near horizon for education”
Not than anyone reading my blogs could do anything to influence what happens in China. However, we should pay attention because what happens there will affect all of us elsewhere.
Walter Russell Mead, at Via Meadia, is watching China, so it would be good to look at his blog, including a recent post, IMF: China Isn’t Ten Feet Tall.
The rapid growth of the Chinese economy, reported to be running at 9% for many years combined with the massive migration of people from farms to cities is astounding. If, or rather when, that massive growth slows the adjustments will be painful. Continue reading “Continue to pay attention to China”
(cross-posted from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)
A: Doing more with less. In other words, increased productivity.
On one hand, the unemployment rate continues very high, which means there are lots fewer people working. On the other hand, GDP has just passed the peak from before the recession, which means the size or value of the economy has recovered.
Check out this picture – Continue reading “Q: Why does it feel like the economy hasn’t recovered, yet the stats say it has?”
Bushels of corn produced on 1 acre of land has increased from about 26 in 1939 to 165 in 2009. Productivity has dropped in 2010.
A graph is better than the raw numbers.
Continue reading “Visual illustration of increased productivity of corn production in U.S.”
That is the opener of a superb post from Tom Hood, CEO of Maryland Association of CPAs.
By the way, his comments may be tailored to an audience of CPAs, but everything he says applies across the board to anyone in business, the nonprofit world, and even government.
If you want a curriculum of things to read and watch so you can get started on dealing with the radical change in the work world, check out his post Are you future ready? And other reflections & resources from the CCH User Conference
The radical rate of change around us is compounded by the power of artificial intelligence. The Economist magazine had an article last week on point: Difference Engine: Luddite Legacy.
For a long time, like since the start of the industrial revolution, mechanical tools have displaced muscle power. In recent decades and especially quite recently, we have seen lots of manufacturing move from higher-wage countries to lower-wage countries.
The disruption is spreading. (Hey, that’s the point of this and many other blogs.) The Economist article points towards the spread to knowledge workers. Continue reading “Another view of the radical change that will hit us down the road”