Instead of reading about hyperinflation and economic collapse in history, you can watch it play out live. Tune in to Venezuela. – 1

ten trillion Zimbabwe dollars. Not the largest currency in circulation, but close.
Ten trillion Zimbabwe dollars. Not the largest currency in circulation, but close. Tragedy of hyperinflation is playing out again, this time in Venezuela.

The hyperinflation in Zimbabwe resulted in a ten trillion Zim note being worth four cents in American dollars. That would be:

  • Zim$10,000,000,000,000  =  US$.04

When that level of financial devastation happens, it is the result of government policy. Usually socialists pull it off, but German also did so before WWII.

Previous posts:

Venezuela

If you are so interested, you can now watch the sad story as it plays out in Venezuela.

2/3 – Wall Street Journal – Inflation-Wrought Venezuela Orders Bank Notes by the Planeload – Usually governments deal with out-of-control inflation by adding two or three zeros to the currency. Instead of the largest bill in circulation being a 100 unit note, the next run of currency is for a 10,000 unit note. In six months or a year there will be a 500,000 or 1,000,000 note in circulation.

Article says the Venezuelan government isn’t doing that because to do so would acknowledge the astronomical inflation. As the saying goes, denial isn’t just a river in Egypt.

Instead of acknowledging that inflation is running out of control, the government of Venezuela is flooding the economy with the same denomination note. In the last several months of 2014, the article says there were three dozen flights of 747s into the country hauling nothing but currency. Over 30 cargo holds filled with currency.

Continue reading “Instead of reading about hyperinflation and economic collapse in history, you can watch it play out live. Tune in to Venezuela. – 1”

Bakken entering ‘manufacturing’ stage? Also, count of oil rigs in field.

Out of focus photo by James Ulvog (yeah, yeah, don't give up my day job)
Out of focus photo of drilling rig and four not-yet-in-production wells by James Ulvog (yeah, yeah, I know – don’t give up my day job.)

Bruce Oksol wonders whether Bakken  oil production is entering the manufacturing phase after a frantic construction phase.

2/3 – The Million Dollar Way – Idle Chatter on DUCs and Related Data Points – Before a big factory or electrical plant or other major project begins production there is a massive construction effort. The number of jobs to run the facility is a fraction of the number of workers needed to construct the thing. When completed, the number of jobs at the facility drops off.

Mr. Oksol uses the illustration of a natural gas plant being built. During construction there will be around 2,000 temporary jobs. When that gas is turned into electricity, the plant will employ 45. That’s 2,000 temporary and 45 permanent jobs.

He wonders if Bakken is like that, having finished the ‘construction’ and now moving into manufacturing.

Continue reading “Bakken entering ‘manufacturing’ stage? Also, count of oil rigs in field.”

Which group pays more in individual income taxes? The top 1% of earners of the bottom 95%?

If you guessed the bottom 95%, you would be right.

Follow-up question: What is the spread between the percentage of taxes paid by each group?

What do you think it is? A multiple? Something like double or triple what the 1% pays?

Maybe just a percentage more? 30%, 50%, 60%?

Actually the spread is thin.

Check out the following graph:

taxes by top 1 and bottom 95

 

Used with permission of Prof. Mark Perry at Carpe Diem.

Continue reading “Which group pays more in individual income taxes? The top 1% of earners of the bottom 95%?”

Estimates of construction costs for new energy projects

Photo of multi fuel power plant courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Photo of multi fuel power plant courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Bruce Oksol at The Million Dollar Way provides an updated scorecard on what he is seeing as the cost to construct a variety of electricity generating plants.

From Enquiring Minds Want to Know – January 30, 2016: Continue reading “Estimates of construction costs for new energy projects”

Data points for building solar farms at airports

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Have mentioned some of this before, but will post again to keep track of it.

12/3 – The Million Dollar Way – Minneapolis Airport Solar Project Twice The Quoted Rate for Solar Energy Projects at $7 Million / MW; No Problem – Increased Landing Fees – No One Will Notice

Two Minnie solar projects on top of parking garages at the airport.

Continue reading “Data points for building solar farms at airports”

China is a competitor in the open frontier of space exploration

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Previously mentioned a lot of players are involved with cutting edge efforts for space exploration. Russia is still a player. So is China. Here are a few articles on the Chinese efforts:

1/11 – Behind the Black – China has big plans in space in 2016 – Summary of the following article. Recap says China has the goal of launching a new space station in 2016 and put staff on it along with initial launch of two new rockets.

1/11 – Parabolic Arc – China Plans Space Station & New Booster Launches in 2016 – Article gives a few more details on China’s plans for spaceflight in 2016: Continue reading “China is a competitor in the open frontier of space exploration”

More illustrations of disruption from technology

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

While tech innovations have opened up new frontiers, innovation is disrupting some fields. Here are a few articles making this point that I’ve accumulated recently:  newspaper circulation continues to collapse, higher ed is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions, and accreditation agencies (which illustrate regulatory capture) show why disruption is needed.

1/20 – Richard Tofel at Medium – The sky is falling on print newspapers faster than you think – Author pulled together circulation numbers from March 2013 and September 2015 for the 25 largest newspapers in the country.

Guess what? Circulation is collapsing.

Here are just a few of the numbers he accumulated: Continue reading “More illustrations of disruption from technology”

More news on military drone operations

Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Reaper drone. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

A few articles on military drone operations.

12/27 – Wall Street Journal – Air Force Looks Beyond Officers to Boost Drone-Pilot Ranks – USAF is moving towards having enlisted troops fly drones. To this point rated pilots had to be at the controls. The increased demands for joint operations combined with staffing limits along with the dreariness of the work has created a shortage of qualified pilots. To fill a gap, USAF may use enlisted pilots.

Continue reading “More news on military drone operations”

Blue Origin launches and recovers a previously used booster rocket

New Shepard booster above was launched a second time and recovered a second time. Photo courtesy of Blue Origin. Used with permission.
New Shepard booster above was launched a second time and recovered a second time. Photo courtesy of Blue Origin. Used with permission.

Fun news on one space competitor competing and one non-competitor lollygagging.

1/23 – Instapundit and Behind the Black – Blue Origin reflies and lands New Shepard again – Blue Origin successfully recovered a booster last November. They have now successfully relaunched the booster and again recovered it.

A reused booster. Extremely cool.

As BtB says, the competition heats up…

Check out the video, Launch. Land. Repeat. January 22, 2016:

 

[youtube=https://youtu.be/74tyedGkoUc]

(Video courtesy of Blue Origin.)

In the opening frame of the video above, it is noticeable to me that it landed something in the range of 10 or 15 feet from dead center.

Continue reading “Blue Origin launches and recovers a previously used booster rocket”

With all the radical technology changes over the last few decades, have the essentials remained the same?

Unless you have gunpowder and a delivery system for it, I suggest you not mess with this guy and his buddies. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Unless you have lots of gunpowder or thousands of buddies , I suggest you not mess with this guy and his 6,000 buddies. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

My friend John Bredehoft provides a different perspective on technology change. On 1/22 at his blog tymshft, he asked Do the essentials change?

He discusses a podcast comparing life today to about 35 years ago. For perspective, that puts us in 1981, or the range of the first year of the Reagan administration.

One of many points I draw from the discussion is related to Jon’s last comment:

But the speed of the processing chip in my smartphone is relatively meaningless.

Phrased differently, the smart phone in your hand may have an operating speed that is thousands or millions of times faster than 30 years ago but that increase doesn’t have an impact on your life in proportion to the increase in speed. Increased operating speed in the last decade probably hasn’t affected your life much at all.

Continue reading “With all the radical technology changes over the last few decades, have the essentials remained the same?”

Update on news around Williston

Photo by James Ulvog.
Photo by James Ulvog.

A few articles of interest to me over the last two months: baby deliveries increase, airline boardings down, adjustments to low prices continue.

1/15 – Amy Dalrymple at Oil Patch Dispatch – While oil boom has slowed, births still booming – number of births in Williston and my not word a record number last year. The count at Williston’s Mercy Medical Center:

Continue reading “Update on news around Williston”

Update on status of Keith Graves – 1/22/16

Long term housing for Keith Graves. Duration of residence yet to be determined. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Long term housing for human traffickers. Duration of residence for Keith Graves has yet to be determined. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Checked the docket in the federal PACER system again today for the now-convicted, felon, sex-trafficker Keith Graves.

No change since my last update on December 18. No new filings in district court. I can’t find any appeals in the 8th Circuit.

Sentencing is still set for February 17. That is just under four weeks away.

What’s noticeable by being absent is the sentencing recommendations from the federal Probation Office, opposition from Mr. Graves’ attorney, and rebuttal by US Attorney. At this point it sure seems to me there should be several filings regarding the recommended sentence. As of this morning, nothing has been filed regarding the sentence.

We ran out of oil in 2011. You didn’t know that? (Peak oil #42. Oops #44)

A prediction from 1976:

“We need to have, uh, a realization that we’ve got about 35 years worth of oil left in the whole world. We’re gonna run out of oil.”

That scientific certainty was from candidate Jimmy Carter during the 1976 Presidential Debate.

Check it out for yourself:

[youtube=https://youtu.be/iXHTmEUGR7c]

Here is some math: Continue reading “We ran out of oil in 2011. You didn’t know that? (Peak oil #42. Oops #44)”

Oil prices – Trends don’t continue in a straight line forever

Thousands of wells can come on line when prices edge up. Photo of two wells about to start production by James Ulvog.
Thousands of wells can quickly be drilled and come on line when prices edge up. Three wells in 9/15 about to start production. Photo by James Ulvog.

Here are three very different articles on the future of crude oil prices.

One of the memorable things I learned in grad school was the idea that you can’t project the current trend of something into the future forever.

Keep in mind that West Texas Intermediate price was somewhere in the region of $100 a barrel in mid ’14. WTI is now about $26. Let me round off some calculations for simplicity. Let’s call that a current price of $30. Let’s call that a year and a half.

So we see a drop of about $70 in 1.5 years. A straight line projection would calculate out as another $45/bbl in another year. Thus, by 12/31/16 WTI price will be  $30 minus $45, or a negative $15. Yes, you read that right. A straight line projection means that oil producers will be paying refineries $15 for every barrel the refiners agree to take off the producer’s hands. Gas prices will consist only of the refining costs, a humongous list of taxes, with an offset for the negative cost of raw material.

You can’t do straight line projections forever.

Here are three superb articles that help me understand what is going on in the world of crude oil…

  • After the Carnage, Shale Will Rise Again
  • Helms predicts oil prices to rise again in foreseeable future
  • Rumors Swirl Around the Saudi Throne

1/18 – Mark P. Mills at The Wall Street Journal – After the Carnage, Shale Will Rise Again / Vast swaths of shale will be profitable with oil at about $40 a barrel, and the nimble industry is ready – If you actually pay attention to my blog, Mr. Mills’ article is a must-read.

Oil prices are quite cyclical. He points out there have been six extremes since the’73-’74 oil embargo. The extremes create turmoil. At the moment we are in the carnage stage of the cyclical extremes.

Continue reading “Oil prices – Trends don’t continue in a straight line forever”

Background on collapse in crude oil prices – 1/20

Slightly out of focus photo by James Ulvog.
Slightly out of focus photo by James Ulvog.

All the world’s players are reacting to the sustained drop in crude oil prices. Here are a few articles I’ve found of interest lately. Another post soon.

1/12 – CNN money – OPEC considering emergency action on oil prices – Article hints that OPEC may have an emergency meeting as soon as February. Next scheduled meeting is in June. Goal would be to get production cuts which will pull oil off the market and increase prices.

Article asserts Saudi Arabia started the price war (which is now the appropriate word) to go against shale producers in the US. That has been my assumption all along. Most articles I see in print now state that as common knowledge.

OPEC may be about ready to blink.

12/28 – Bloomberg News at Calgary Herald – Shale drillers running out of tricks to survive as OPEC keeps up pressure Shale drillers have done all they obvious things to cope with $50 oil: lay off staff, focus on the best spots, increase amount of sand, drill smarter, drill faster, and squeeze suppliers. That has allowed the industry to essentially maintain production.

But now oil is at $35.

Continue reading “Background on collapse in crude oil prices – 1/20”