al-Qaeda attack on hotel in Bamako is over. Hostages are free.
11/20 – AP – Islamic Extremists Attack Hotel in Mali’s Capital– Militants, “Islamic extremists” is the AP’s approved word, attacked a luxury hotel in Bamako taking over a hundred people hostage. The Malian army quickly moved to take back the hotel. At the time the article was filed, the rescue efforts were still underway.
Interesting tidbit is the Malian army troops were being supported by US and French special forces. A quote from an official spokesman from the U.S. Africa Command said special forces are training the Mali troops.
Private space launch of privately developed rocket. Photo courtesy of SpaceX.
I am fascinated by the wide open frontiers in so many areas of life. We’re at the point where private enterprises are taking the lead in space exploration.
Here are several fascinating articles I’ve read recently on legislation to legalize space mining, how to colonize Mars, thumbsats (which are smaller than cubesats), and competition for launching GPS satellites.
Asteriod mining
11/13 – Jurist – Senate approved the bill to legalize space mining– Bill would be huge step in providing a legal framework for mining asteroids. This would not allow for ownership of asteroids, but would give a clear title to anyone who mined resources and removed them from the asteroid.
Each of those little spots of light brown is a well pad with 1 or 4 wells, with each well likely to produce around half a million barrels of oil. Two decades ago every drop of that oil was completely unrecoverable. Visual proof of the foolishness of Peak Oil. Photo by James Ulvog.
Remember that Peak oil doctrine states unequivocally that production peaks and then begins an irreversible, inevitable, unavoidable slide to zero. The curve of production inevitably follows a pattern that looks roughly comparable to a bell curve.
That means that by 2015 we should have already approached the point of very minimal oil production worldwide. Yesterday’s post described a century’s worth of failed predictions.
Where is production today? Umm…not exactly approaching zero.
Production is running so high in spite of collapse prices and in spite of increasing demand that there is a worldwide glut of crude. Having enough space to store all of the surplus oil is becoming an issue.
Here are just a few of the articles I have seen in the last week on point. This does not include another six or eight articles I’ve seen in the last month that make the same point.
According to conclusive predictions over the last 100 years, the oil coming out of those wells can’t exist, because we have already used up all the oil on the planet. Perhaps the wells are just a figment of my imagination that is as fertile as the plains of North Dakota. Photo and sarcasm by James Ulvog.
It is so entertaining to read about all the failed predictions of when we will run out of oil or some other critical resource. I keep coming across more and more absolute guarantees of when we already ran out of oil.
At its core, Peak Oil is merely another variation of the long discredited Malthusian arguments that we will run out of stuff. Such thinking is foolishly and fatally flawed.
Remember that until just a few years ago it was universally agreed by eeeeeevery scientist and researcher on the planet that we would absolutely run out of oil. It was settled science. No debate or argument necessary. No disagreement allowed.
For this particular journey down the trail of failed predictions, I thank Rob Port, writing at Say Anything Blog, for pointing me to the trail head for this expedition. In his article Settled Science: America Will Be Out Of Oil By 2015, he wrote
Because, you see, peak oil was settled science. Except, it also turned out to be wrong science, as most malthusian projections do, because it failed to take into account humanity’s infinite capacity to invent and innovate. In 2015 the big problem for the oil industry isn’t that they can’t find more oil, but rather that the market is being flooded with oil and that’s driving down prices.
Here are a few more graphs on crude production in North Dakota as released by the state on 11/13/15. First the fracklog and then the number of working rigs.
Fracklog for September is 1,091. That is the estimated number of wells waiting to be completed. They are drilled to depth, temporarily closed, and only need to be fracked in order to start producing.
Cover of Prof. Deaton’s book, used under fair use for this review, courtesy of Amazon.com
Prof. Angus Deaton won the 2015 Nobel award in economics. Mentioned this earlier.
His contribution to expanding the frontier of economics knowledge is to study development and poverty from the consumption side instead of income side. This approach looks at what can people buy instead of what income they have.
11/10 – Amy Dalrymple at Dickinson Press – Williston city commissioners vote to shut down crew camps– The motion was approved by commissioners Tate Cymbaluk, Christ Brosteun, and Howard Klug (mayor). It will require a second reading and approval.
Move would shut housing with 3,600 beds. Target Logistics, with a large camp on the north side of town, is currently 70% occupied.
Oil executives said there is still a need for temporary housing for crews that move around based on where they need to work this week or this month. Their concern is workers will leave the area for a location with stable temporary housing.
Apartment owners are concerned about prices dropping and not as many tenants renting.
This is the size plane the Williston airport can handle. Notice the size of the door for scale. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
The Bismarck Tribune has a good article on the new Williston airport, which is being built outside of town and will handle medium-sized jets. It will replace the current airport, which is in town and has a runway that can only handle smaller regional jets. I picture a runway that can handle 150 passenger jets versus a runway limited to jets that can carry 50 passengers, like the CRJ above.
Two county commissioners don’t see any reason to build the new airport.
City of Williston may likely vote this week to close all man camps within their jurisdiction. Dramatically reducing supply of housing will have the obvious impact of driving up prices. Keep in mind that is a choice of the local government.
Heat is what caused two derailments in Montana back in July. Not the oil that was on board.
Major construction work on Main street is finished.
Update 11/20 – I’m wondering if “Blood & Oil” will even make it through the shortened season of 10 episodes. Wikipedia reports episode #7 aired on 11/8. It had same rating/share as week #6 (0.8/2) with a tiny increase in viewers (up 0.15M to 3.40M, for second lowest showing). Show did not air on 11/15 and is not scheduled for 11/22. Next episode, #8, is scheduled for 11/29. ‘Suppose #10 will ever get on the air? Anyone liking the show might just have to catch it on DVD.
A few articles on shows set in the North Dakota oil fields. One ad libs with locals, one actually has a non-oil plot, and one suggests everyone moving to North Dakota is a low life. Guess I’ve been reading enough lately and am aware enough of what is going on in the Bakken that I can recognize heavy agenda when I see it.
Oh, ‘Blood & Oil”, which I discussed earlier, will only have 10 shows in its first season instead of the originally contracted 13. Their ratings & share is still dropping. If I understand some articles correctly, that means the show is on its deathbed.
10/17 – Dickinson Press – Williston on film– Gotta love the opening sentence!
It’s probably safe to say Williston, North Dakota has the highest per-capital presence of filmmakers on earth.
Photo taken at altitude while flying over North Dakota. Look closely to see strings of wind turbines scarring the land, visible at 20,000 feet. Photo by James Ulvog.
Between some vacation, talking about things I learned in North Dakota, and following the trial of now-convicted human trafficker Keith Graves, I’ve not been talking about the devastation caused by wind and solar power for quite a while. Not to worry, there is a long backlog of articles on the destructive power of wing toasters and slice-and-dicers on my list of things to discuss.
Here are a few articles on dilute and intermittent wind power that caught my eye. Update on solar to follow in a few days.
Haven’t seen much news from Colorado or Washington on regulating marijuana. On the other hand, I haven’t been looking much. As a reminder, I’m watching this topic to see how badly heavy-handed regulation restrains a new industry.
Some news from other states moving toward legalization. North Dakota is taking some steps. Ohio stops.
Now that Mr. Graves has been convicted on five counts of human trafficking plus possession and distribution of meth, I have started to think about what sentence he has rightfully earned and will be justly delivered to him in full.
Previous post discussed why I am paying such close attention to Mr. Graves’ case. Short answer is this expands my understanding of the federal legal system, extends my detailed discussion of the documentary The Overnighters, and overlaps my interest in the shale boom in North Dakota.
This discussion looks at the offense level and my wild guess on possible sentence. Previous post discussed the concept of criminal history level.
Now that Mr. Graves has been convicted, I will start to think about what sentence he might earn.
Having noticed how closely I am following the case of now-convicted human trafficker Keith Graves you may wonder why I am paying such close attention to his case. After reading this post, you will be really curious.(12-19-15 update) I hope this post explains my curiosity.
