We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
If you want to see what a radical change is underway in the energy field, check out this graph of combined oil production from the three biggest plays, Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian:
That’s from America’s Amazing Shale Revolution in one chart by Carpe Diem and is used with permission.
Philosiblog ponders that comment from Penn Jillette.
Do we assume that when something happens to us it was good luck? Or was it random, haphazard chance that helped us? Or was it our preparation applied to an opportunity?
Be careful of the assumption that the world is in your favor: Continue reading ““Luck is probability taken personally””
I read most of the posts from Million Dollar Way but just browse the production reports. Check out this one: Random Updates on Privratsky Wells: Different Fields; Different Operators
I dropped my jaw on first glance. Dry holes!
In my minimal understanding, historically getting a dry hole when looking for oil is a serious risk. You pour a bunch of time and money into drilling a spot and you get……nothing. I’ve read that in Bakken over the last five years there aren’t any dry holes.
Imagine my shock when I browsed the linked article glancing at the initial production rates in barrels per day and saw DRY.
Continue reading “Dry holes in Bakken? Oh, wait. Look at the completion dates.”
A few articles on technology, education, energy, and publishing that are worth a read. The frontier is wide open in those areas. Just a brief comment from me.
Innovation, inside the box
7/1/13 – Wharton – How LEGO Stopped Thinking Outside the Box and Innovated Inside the Brick – LEGO started losing money when their innovations needed a completely new set of parts for every innovation. They regained their 20%+ growth curve and 40% profit increase when they innovated new toys using existing pieces. Their outside-the-box innovation almost sank them. Staying inside the box returned them to growth and profits. Hat tip: Emproprise-BI: Structured innovation, via LEGO.
Lesson from my grad school classes: stay inside your competencies. LEGO makes bricks, not video games, TV shows, or bendable action figures. They thrive when they do what they do best.
Education
4/30 – Wall Street Journal – With Free Web Courses, Wharton Seeks Edge in Traditional Programs – Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 5/28”
The count of toasted birds at the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System doubled in April. Two possibilities for the accelerating death count.
First, the wing-toasting solar tower was in operation a higher number of hours in the month. Second, staff from the U.S. Geological Survey were on site a lot during the month giving a more accurate count.
Check out April Was Bad Month for Birds at Ivanpah Solar, by Chris Clarke at ReWire.
Mr. Clarke says the Ivanpah monthly compliance report lists 100 birds as either killed, mortally wounded, or injured during April. That consists of 40 that were scorched, singed, or had melted feathers and 12 showing signs of collision with heliostats. That is 52, so that leaves 48 decomposed enough that the cause of death couldn’t be determined. By biologists. Who know what they are looking for.
Actual deaths are a large multiple of the reported number
Wow.
I ordered two items from Amazon at 8:11 Thursday evening. They promised Saturday delivery. Sounds fine to me.
Shipped out of the San Bernardino warehouse at 3:59 a.m. on Friday. Delivered by UPS at 10:07 a.m. Friday.
Next day delivery. Fourteen hours.
No extra charge with a Prime subscription.
Very cool.
Check out these astounding pieces of info from the 2014 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference, as reported by Amy Dalrymple (who else would it be from?): Hamm sees 2 million barrels per day potential for North Dakota: Continue reading “Mind bending tidbits from ’14 Bakken conference”
Does fracking a well to generate huge amounts of crude oil and natural gas so we can drive our cars and heat our homes take a lot of water?
You bet.
Add up all the water we use across the country for fracking. It’s a lot. However, we use more than that for irrigating golf courses or watering the lawns at our homes.
Compared to what?
Brace yourself for this chart, used with permission from Carpe Diem: Energy chart of the day: America’s shale oil revolution will reverse a 40-year decline in crude oil output in just 5.5 years.
US energy production grew from around 1 million barrels of oil per day (1M bopd) in 1920 to a high point of 10.04M bopd in November 1970. A 40 year decline dropped production to around 5M or 5.5M bopd in 2010.
The shale boom has skyrocketed production to 8.3M bopd in April 2014. The EIA projects production will be pushing 10M bopd at the end of 2015.
Astounding.
What Peak Oil?
Continue reading “Shale oil revolution drives surge in domestic production – Peak oil #34”
Here’s another data point for the cost to build out a large wind farm along with the 700 mile transmission line. Can’t have a huge slice-and-dice operation without a way to move the electricity to a buyer.
The Denver Business Journal reports Anschutz-backed Wyoming wind far, biggest in North America, files for permit.
Here is one key paragraph with lots of data:
The Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Program wind farm is being developed by the Power Company of Wyoming LLC, a subsidiary of The Anschutz Corp. It involves 1,000 wind turbines capable of generating up to 3,000 megawatts of power — enough to support the electricity demands of about 900,000 homes.
Cost of the constructing the turbines is $6B per the article, and is based on 2008 plans.
In addition, a 725 mile transmission line will carry the power across Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and end up in southern Nevada. Cost of building that line is $3B per the article.
Key info for future reference: Continue reading “Cost to build a 1,000 turbine wind farm and associated transmission line”
You want to boil down hundreds of pages from several books? I came across one sentence that does a good job:
…poverty is a symptom— of the absence of a workable economy built on credible political, social, and legal institutions.
I’ve been reading a lot of economics books lately. (Okay, okay, you can pray for me – a CPA reading economics books for relaxation and learning and growth.)
(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)
If we can figure out how we on this planet have gotten to the place where we have the highest wealth, best health, and longest life expectancy in history, we can keep going on the same path. Likewise, we can maybe figure out how to bring along those people groups that don’t share in the abundant bounty.
Here is the ache in many hearts: How do we ‘solve’ poverty and suffering?
Continue reading “How to summarize half a dozen developmental economics books in one sentence”
Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post: infrastructure starting to catch up, regs won’t fix flaring, growth continues strong, interpreting the high count of wells awaiting completion.
5/3 – Million Dollar Way – Women in the Bakken – Just a Casual Observation – Bruce Oksol has a number of observations comparing Williston in 4/13 to his visit in 2011.
Creative video from Prof. Bryan Caplan explains Make Progress, Not Work.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fEbdgpIQ7n4]
A few highlights:
Forbes has a superb article on the shale revolution in North Dakota and one of the drivers of said revolution: Harold Hamm: The Billionaire Oilman Fueling America’s Recovery.
For some great background why the Bakken field is producing nine times more oil than five years ago, check out the article.
There is great discussion of Harold Hamm and his role in creating the oil boom.
What has the shale boom done for the US?
Check out the benefits to the US of the shale oil boom: Continue reading “Background on Bakken and Harold Hamm”
It has long been known that California is heavily dependent on a ‘soak the rich’ strategy for collecting personal income tax. An article from Capital Journal reprinted in the LA Times (assuming I’m reading the byline correctly) explains the success of soaking some while advocating a change in strategy: Broaden the tax base to ease disproportionate dependence on the rich.
Here’s some info from the article that shows the state’s dependence on ‘the rich.’
Continue reading “Dependence on ‘the rich’ in California tax collections”