Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic – a way to make sense – part 2

Previous post introduced the four quadrants of the Cynefin Framework: simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic.

One of the major implications of the framework is to highlight that the world is not neatly ordered.

In addition, leadership styles need to change based on the nature of the situation.

(This series of articles is cross-posted from my other blog, Nonprofit Update. I’ll put them on this blog as well because the Cynefin Framework is quite helpful for understanding the messy world around us.)

Boundaries

The boundaries in moving between quadrants, from simple to complicated to complex to chaotic, are fuzzy. Situations can blend from one to another.

Continue reading “Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic – a way to make sense – part 2”

Compared to slice-and-dice, wing-toasters, and corn-for-gasoline industries, seems like oil and gas is an oasis of common sense

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Million Dollar Way ponders The Irony Of It All – North Dakota Will Lose More Grassland, More Wetlands To Ethanol Than To The Oil And Gas Industry:

And with an ever-increasing number of slicers and dicers killing bats, eagles, hawks, and whooping cranes, the oil and gas industry is starting to look like an oasis of common sense.

Four industries: wind power, solar power, ethanol, and oil & gas. What common sense is visible seems to be in oil & gas.

Ethanol …

…is environmentally unfriendly. Maybe. Probably. Possibly.

Continue reading “Compared to slice-and-dice, wing-toasters, and corn-for-gasoline industries, seems like oil and gas is an oasis of common sense”

Short overview of Bakken – introducing term ‘boomier’

A 3 minute intro to the Bakken boom with some really nice video of the plains, oil work, and the charm of the prairie.

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OS9aZCxESsc]

 

Irish correspondent says the Bakken boom is getting boomier.

Also calls it the new Klondike.

(Hat tip: Bakken Shale) 

9-13 North Dakota oil production 932K bopd – I missed my guess to hit one million barrels by September

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=LUQZc4ilyuo]

September production was 932,174 barrels a day. That is a 2.3% increase for the month.

I missed my prediction

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About those fantastical make-believe tricorders? 31 teams will compete to develop one.

There is a $10M prize in the XPRIZE competition to develop a functioning machine portable machine that can assess a patient for 15 conditions. There are 31 teams entering the competition. That will be whittled down to 10 during the qualifying rounds in April 2014.

Scientific American describes XPRIZE Unveils Medical Tricorder Teams.

The goal is to develop Continue reading “About those fantastical make-believe tricorders? 31 teams will compete to develop one.”

A simple explanation why we will never run out of oil – Peak Oil #32

In one sentence:  Some other energy source, perhaps fusion, will provide our energy needs before we actually use up all the oil.

That is my summary of the comments by Professor Bernard Weinstein in a presentation made in North Dakota, as summarized by The Dickinson Press:  Energy expert:  World will ‘never run out of oil’.

We simply do not know how much oil is recoverable. Check out these two comments: Continue reading “A simple explanation why we will never run out of oil – Peak Oil #32”

Q: What churned up 5M acres of never-before-plowed land, increased carbon output, poisoned rivers, and drove up food prices for the poor?

A: Ethanol.

Yes, gasoline from corn does all that and more.

In what Million Dollar Way calls a Cronkite moment, the AP has a major story out, the title of which I will edit to make neutral as to political parties, since ethanol is the official policy of one R and one D administration:  The secret, dirty cost of {two administration’s} green power push.

Here’s a bit of the information the AP reported:

Environmental damage

The overall conclusion:

The consequences are so severe that environmentalists and many scientists have now rejected corn-based ethanol as bad environmental policy. 

Continue reading “Q: What churned up 5M acres of never-before-plowed land, increased carbon output, poisoned rivers, and drove up food prices for the poor?”

Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic – a way to make sense – part 1

For the last week I’ve been pondering a new tool to help understand the world around me. It’s called a sense-making model by its inventor.

The Cynefin Framework was developed by David Snowden. It’s pronounced cunevin or ku-nev’-in.

This series of posts will give an overview, provide two links to videos, and apply the model to several areas.

(This discussion is cross-posted from my other blog, Nonprofit Update. I’ll put them on this blog as well because the Cynefin Framework is quite helpful for understanding the messy world around us.)

The model has four quadrants. The primary driver is how the relationship between cause and effect changes based on the nature of the situation.

Simple

Continue reading “Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic – a way to make sense – part 1”

More good stuff on the open frontiers – 11-9-13

I’ve used the analogy of a newly opened frontier in the areas of :

  • education,
  • space,
  • energy, and
  • publishing.

This post starts a new “good stuff” series.  Don’t have time to write a full post commenting on all the cool articles I see, so sometimes I’ll just link to articles and give a brief comment.

Here are some articles talking about the open frontier.

Education

Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 11-9-13”

Another estimate for eagle casualties in Altamont Pass

Estimated avian mortality in 2005 at Altamont Pass:

Two or three dozen golden eagles. Two hundred red-tail hawks.

Per year.

Let me extend that out – a couple dozen golden eagles and hundreds of hawks…

Every year.

For 4 decades.

A study published in 2005 estimated the raptor casualties in the Altamont Pass slice-and-dice operation. I’ve looked around for the study. It appears to be in a paywall site. Found multiple references to the study and one good summary.

Continue reading “Another estimate for eagle casualties in Altamont Pass”

Amazing progress in living standards from 100 years ago

“Then and Now” at Café Hayek discusses the radical change in living standards since Don Boudreaux’s grandparents were born.

Look at some of the improvements:

Maternal and infant mortality has dropped dramatically – His grandfather lost his mother (i.e. his great-grandmother) in childbirth. His grandfather and grandmother lost their 4th child a few days after birth.

Continue reading “Amazing progress in living standards from 100 years ago”

What company will replace Walmart?

That’s the question in the post #page 462 – What will the company that replaces Walmart (and Amazon) look like?

Remember the dominant players Kodak, Pan Am, TWA, Sears, Montgomery Wards, and IBM (the PC manufacturer)?

All but Sears are gone. And they are a subsidiary of K-mart.

IBM (the PC manufacturer) has disappeared from the market and been replaced by IBM (the IT consulting outfit).

The iconic name brands disappear as new, more nimble companies come along.

So we wonder who will replace the current dominant players like Walmart and Amazon.

Continue reading “What company will replace Walmart?”

Forecasts for Eagle Ford production

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Previously mentioned a report from EIA that said production in Eagle Ford would be over 1M bopd in October and November. That confused me.

Got myself straightened out.

That amount includes condensates as well as crude oil. Aha! I’m a little slow on the update sometimes, but I’m catching on. Slowly.

Continue reading “Forecasts for Eagle Ford production”