Here’s RBN Energy’s estimate for hitting 1M bopd, in their 11-19-12 blog post, From a Famine of Pipeline to a Feast of Rail – Giving Thanks for Bakken Delivery. The post graphs N.D. production by month and then adds a trend line:
I’m making note of estimates of when Bakken will hit a million bopd.
John Kemp in an Reuters article asks Is Bakken Set to Rival Ghawar? .
He makes this estimate:
I’m so wet behind the ears that it isn’t funny, so its no surprise I’m constantly amazed at new info on Bakken, like the potentially huge size of the Bakken field.
John Kemp in a Reuters article asks Is Bakken Set to Rival Ghawar?
Ghawar is producing around six million barrels of oil per day (bopd).
Many people think Bakken is approaching the point of having a million bopd of output. I’ve been tracking those estimates as I stumble across them.
I’ve been making note of predictions, forecasts, and wild guesses for when oil production in North Dakota will hit a million barrels a day. I’ve seen another estimate for that. Also saw a prediction with an iron-clad upper limit that Bakken production will never cross.
Since I’ve started to pay attention to forecasts for the Bakken field, I’ll make note of one that is not so optimistic.
The Oil Drum has a post, Is Shale Oil Production from Bakken Headed for a Run with “The Red Queen?” that doesn’t see substantial increases in future output.
The forecast in that post is for production to stay at roughly the current level, which for July 2012 was 674K bopd state-wide and 609K bopd for Bakken only. Here are two key comments, the first from the findings and the second from immediately after the findings: Continue reading “Another forecast for Bakken production – we have probably already hit the peak”
Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm, has a prediction for tight oil production in the U.S.
They are predicting 1.3 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in each of the fields by the end of the decade. That would be about doubling production from current levels.
Reading the full article requires a subscription to Petroleum Economist.
They also predict that Bakken production will hit 750K bopd by the end of 2012.
With June production at 660k bopd and increases of around 20k or 30k bopd each month, I don’t think it will take until the end of the year to hit 750k.
(h/t: BakkenBlog News twitter feed)
That is the forecast by Bentek Energy LLC. I’ve been pointing out forecasts for Bakken production and this is the longest forecast I’ve seen.
The Dickinson Press picks up the AP report in their article Study: ND oil output may jump threefold by 2025. The opening paragraph:
Previous post covered some of the info from a presentation by Mr. Lynn Helms, North Dakota’s Director of Mineral Resources, at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference on May 25, 2012. You can find the PDFs from the presentation here.
Here is some more info I enjoyed from the presentation.
Possible number of new wells in North Dakota
Wow. I tripped across the PDF slides for the presentation by Mr. Lynn Helms, North Dakota’s Director of Mineral Resources, at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference on May 25, 2012. You can find the presentation on this page. The title is WBPC Activity.
A big thank you to Mark J. Perry at Carpe Diem for pointing me to the PDF slide presentation.
Mr. Helms presentation is the source for many of the articles I’ve read and the resulting posts on this blog.
What is the very condensed message from the presentation?
The oil boom in North Dakota, which has seen production skyrocket to over 600,000 barrels per day, is just getting started.
Typical production from a well
I’ll make a wild guess when production of oil in North Dakota will hit one million barrels a day. I’ll put my estimate on the table.
Before September 30, 2013.
I’ve not seen any projections on Bakken production that were not extremely understated in light of what happened since the estimates were made.